Seven-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady continues to be in the news following the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ blowout loss in this year’s NFL Wild Card Playoffs.
Set to hit free agency in March, it’s long been assumed that Brady wouldn’t return to the Buccaneers for a fourth season. He’s been linked to other teams ahead of free agency and has not ruled out retiring at the age of 45.
Rumors of Brady’s departure from Tampa Bay picked up steam during what was a down season for the future first ballot Hall of Famer and his organization. Most recently, Buccaneers players have indicated behind the scenes that they’d be surprised if Brady did return.
Now comes this note from ESPN’s Jeff Darlington indicating that Brady has felt “inclined to return to the Bucs” as part of the solution for the organization.
There’s a lot of moving parts on this front. Prior to Tampa Bay’s blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL Playoffs, the team posted an 8-9 regular-season record. For his part, Brady put up his worst statistical season since all the way back in 2013.
- Tom Brady stats (2022): 67% completion, 4,694 yards, 25 TD, 9 INT, 90.7 QB rating
This would have been a great performance for a typical quarterback. But as we’ve seen throughout his 23-year career, Brady is not your typical signal caller.
Despite this, there’s rumored interest by the Las Vegas Raiders and other teams. That has increased chatter about a departure from Tampa Bay.
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How a Tom Brady return to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers might work
Regardless of what happens with Brady, Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht has a ton of roster decisions to make. The Bucs currently find themselves $55.52 million over the projected 2023 NFL salary cap. Once Brady’s salary comes off the books, that will be roughly $30 million.
Tom Terrific is not going to return if he doesn’t believe Tampa Bay can compete for a Super Bowl title. He’s also not going to join another fledgling franchise just to play another season.
From a financial perspective, Tampa Bay has built its cap around Brady since signing the all-time great ahead of the 2020 season. That’s now coming home to roost.
Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Shaquil Barrett, Carlton Davis, Vita Vea and Ryan Jensen have a combined dead cap hit number of $130-plus million for next season. The Bucs are not going to move off them and take that dead cap hit. They are also highly unlikely to restructure if Brady does not return to the mix.
On the other hand, restructures could help Tampa Bay build up a roster capable of competing with the likes of the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC. Per Over the Cap, restructuring those six players would save north of $58 million against the cap. Releasing the likes of Donovan Smith, Russell Gage and Leonard Fournette would save another $32 million.
This is the long-form way of saying Tampa Bay could pull off salary cap gymnastics in order to create enough room to add talent in free agency.
Would that be enough to entice Tom Brady? We’re not 100% sure. But this adds yet another layer to the drama surrounding the future Hall of Famer.