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Super Bowl LV: Odds, top prop bets, over/under and picks for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Feb 4, 2021;Tampa Bay, Florida, USA; A general view of the Super Bowl LV official football on the beach at Anna Maria Island. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Super Bowl LV has finally arrived, with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs set to face Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Lombardi Trophy and a legacy-defining moment are at stake for both future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, while money could be on the line for many fans.

While there might not be quite as much betting for Super Bowl 2021 compared to previous years, more than $500 million could be wagered on the biggest game in sports. Whether it’s a $2.3 million wager or a few $5 prop bets, NFL fans will have plenty of options to place their money on for Sunday’s game.

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With that in mind, let’s dive into the Super Bowl LV odds, over/under and top prop bets in this thrilling matchup between the Chiefs and Buccaneers.

Who is the favored to win the Super Bowl LV?

While this is Tom Brady’s 10th Super Bowl appearance and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the first team in NFL history to play in the big game at their home stadium, the Kansas City Chiefs are the favorites in Super Bowl LV.

Entering Sunday’s NFL finale, the Chiefs are a three-point favorite. If they can pull off the victory, Kansas City would be the first team since Brady’s 2004-’05 Patriots won the Lombardi Trophy in consecutive years. In fact, only seven NFL teams have ever won back-to-back championships.

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Across the United States, however, many are placing their confidence in Brady. A staggering number of bettors are confident that Tampa Bay will cover that three-point spread, with many confident that Brady will win his seventh Super Bowl ring.

Kansas City has the edge at head coach, quarterback and arguably has the two best offensive weapons and defensive players (Tyrann Mathieu, Chris Jones) in this matchup. But there’s something to be said for how Brady performs in these clutch moments, with the entire team rallying around him. Plus, with Tampa Bay’s massive advantage over Kansas City’s offensive line, that could easily swing this game.

We’re betting on the most talented quarterback in NFL history beating the greatest player of all-time. Mahomes does things we’ve never seen and he has proven countless times that he can handle any moment. This will be a close game, but the Chiefs should ultimately cover the spread.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Related: 5 reasons why Tom Brady will lead Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Super Bowl LV glory

Super Bowl LV: Over/under for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thunderstorms and rain are in Sunday’s weather forecast for Tampa Bay, but the skies should be clear for kick-off at 6:30 PM EST. Barring the weather getting in the way of limiting these incredible offenses, many are ready to see plenty of fireworks in the Super Bowl.

Currently, the over/under line for Super Bowl LV stands at 56 points. Many will be tempted to immediately take the over, given the matchup, but ESPN’s research notes that teams have only surpassed the over 50% of the time in the last 20 Super Bowls. Furthermore, according to The Athletic, it’s a 26-26-1 split dating back to Super Bowl I.

We can always learn from history, but Super Bowl matchups between NFL MVP quarterbacks are exceptionally rare. Besides, Kansas City’s offense averaged 30 points in the playoffs and regular season, while the Buccaneers were just as dominant.

While Tampa Bay’s secondary is healthier than we saw in the NFC Championship Game, they allowed 346 passing yards and three touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers. Keep in mind, Davante Adams dropped a touchdown in that game. Put a better quarterback, supporting cast and play-caller against the Buccaneers’ defense and big things can happen.

Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo does have an impressive track record against Brady, but Tampa Bay’s offense is also incredible. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are two of the NFL’s top receivers and Antonio Brown will be back for this matchup. Even if Kansas City can pressure TB12, it won’t take much time for these weapons to get open.

Pick: Over

Super Bowl LV prop bets: Picks for yards, key stats and more

Super Bowl LV; Super Bowl 2021: Patrick Mahomes
Jan 24, 2021; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates during the fourth quarter in the AFC Championship Game against the Buffalo Bills at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Heads or tails? Super Bowl LV bettors split from coin toss to champion

Super Bowl 2021 MVP: Patrick Mahomes (-120)

If we’re picking the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl LV, the safe bet is on Mahomes to earn MVP honors. He took the trophy home last season, even after a relatively slow start to the game. In a matchup that should see even more points scored, he could be poised for some huge numbers and another award for his trophy case.

With that in mind, it’s also wise to take some chances on other players. If Tampa Bay pulls off the victory, it’s hard to imagine Tom Brady (+200) not being named Super Bowl LV MVP. But, the Buccaneers do have a history of a defensive player winning the honor. Devin White (+3000) and Shaquil Barrett (+4500) can take over a game and create turnovers. If you think the Bucs pull this one out, throwing some money on either defender is a worthy gamble.

One other option, based on a Chiefs’ victory, is Travis Kelce. Tampa Bay won’t allow itself to get burned by Tyreek Hill, as we saw in the last meeting. With an increased focus on the NFL’s fastest receiver, there could be even more room for Kelce to operate. With great odds (+1000), he’s a sleeper candidate for Super Bowl MVP honors.

Tom Brady stats

Super Bowl LV: Super Bowl 2021: Tom Brady
Oct 18, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) reacts on the sideline against the Green Bay Packers during the second quarter of a NFL game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
  • Passing Touchdowns – 2.5

It’s wild to think this will be Brady’s 10th Super Bowl appearance, but it speaks to his status as the greatest player in NFL history. Brady has three games with three-plus passing touchdowns and three with one or zero passing scores in nine prior trips. He’s never had a supporting cast like this in a Super Bowl. With that in mind, we’re willing to take the OVER (+135).

  • Passing Yards – 300.5

Going back to Brady’s history in the Super Bowl, he has four games with 300-plus passing yards. Of the games he fell short of the 300-yard mark, one came in Super Bowl XXXVI when he was a game manager for the Patriots. Another occurred in Super Bowl LIII, a defensive battle with the Rams, ending in a 13-3 victory and 262 passing yards. Since we expect this to be a high-scoring game, we’ll bet on the OVER (-110) for passing yards.

  • Pass Completions – 25.5

The Buccaneers love throwing the football, but Brady never completed 26-plus passes in any of his three playoff games this year. However, he did hit that mark in eight of his 16 starts during the regular season. Betting on a lot of scoring, we’ll go with Brady hitting the OVER (+120) in Super Bowl LV), but it likely comes down to the final drive.

  • Rushing Yards – 0.5

Will Tampa Bay be in a position to take a knee at the end of the first half or in the closing minute of the game? That’s probably the thing standing in the way of Brady from finishing with the lone rushing yard he needs. If you expect the Buccaneers to win, take the under. Projecting a Chiefs’ victory, we’ll take the over (+140).

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Patrick Mahomes stats:

  • Passing Touchdowns – 2.5

Mahomes certainly reaches three-plus total touchdowns against the Cleveland Browns if not for his bizarre injury in the Divisional Round. He followed that up with three passing scores against the Buffalo Bills and now has had two weeks for his toe to heal. Mahomes had six games in the regular season with three-plus passing touchdowns, and we’ll be taking the OVER.

  • Passing Yards – 329.5

It’s tempting to put it all down on these quarterbacks surpassing their prop bets. With that said, the line must be drawn somewhere. Mahomes threw for 325 yards against the Buffalo Bills and passing 330 yards does take some effort. Plus, with Tampa Bay’s defense bringing pressure, we might see a few more runs and maybe even some keepers by Mahomes. So, we’ll take the UNDER (+100).

  • Pass Completions – 28.5

Looking at Mahomes’ stats from the season, it becomes evident why the over/under is so high. From Nov. 8 – Dec. 27, the 25-year-old had four games with 30-plus completions and that includes a 37-of-49 game against this same defense. We’re likely not going to see as many deep shots in this one, with the Bucs forcing Mahomes to take underneath throws. It’s not his favorite thing in the world, but he’s more than willing to do it. So, we’ll roll the dice with the OVER (+110) on passes completed.

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More Super Bowl 2021 prop bets:

Super Bowl LV: Super Bowl 2021
Jan 17, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) reacts against the Cleveland Browns during the second half in the AFC Divisional Round playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
  • Rob Gronkowski – 29.5 receiving yards – OVER (-105)
  • Travis Kelce – 7.5 receptions – OVER (-135)
  • Travis Kelce – Anytime touchdown – (-165)
  • Mecole Hardman – Anytime touchdown – (+275)
  • Leonard Fournette – 50.5 rushing yards – OVER (+100)
  • Mike Evans – First Super Bowl LV touchdown – (+900)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers rushing yards – 92.5 – OVER (+100)
  • Shortest Super Bowl 2021 touchdown – 1.5 yards – OVER (+140)
  • Total touchdowns – 6.5 – OVER (-115)
  • Super Bowl 2021 national anthem duration – 1 minute, 59 seconds – UNDER