The San Francisco 49ers traded three first-round picks and additional assets in March 2021 for the third overall pick, later using it on quarterback Trey Lance. Just over two years later, the 49ers are expected to receive far less if they trade Lance.
Lance, selected after Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson in the 2021 NFL Draft, entered the league with significant buzz. While he wasn’t viewed as a pro-ready quarterback, many around the league were confident the 6-foot-4 quarterback would blossom with head coach Kyle Shanahan.
- Trey Lance stats (NFL): 84.5 QB rating, 54.9% completion rate, 235 rush yards, 4.4 ypc
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Even after playing a minimal role in his rookie season, expectations were high for Lance heading into 2022. Even after some concerning reports out of training camp, Lance won the starting quarterback job over Jimmy Garoppolo. Unfortunately for the second-year player, he suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2.
Lance then fell out of favor in San Francisco. After Garoppolo was injured, rookie Brock Purdy took over and went 5-0 in the regular season. After posting a 107.3 passer rating in his first season and leading the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game, Purdy was expected to start in 2023.
Even after Purdy underwent surgery to repair the UCL tear in his throwing elbow, San Francisco committed to him as its top quarterback atop the depth chart. In addition, the 49ers signed Sam Darnold to provide added competition for training camp and the preseason.
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Now, the 49ers are fielding trade calls for Lance from interested NFL teams. While San Francisco denies shopping the former No. 3 overall pick outright, the reports of Lynch listening to offers is a telling sign the franchise is very open to a move.
It all but confirms reports that the 49ers have lost confidence in Lance. Two years after identifying him as the player who would turn this franchise around, mortgaging its future on him, San Francisco no longer is sure he can be the long-term starter. It will have a direct result on what other teams are willing to trade for him.
On the latest You Pod to Win the Game podcast, NFL insider Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports shared what he believes is the best-case scenario for San Francisco in a Lance trade.
“His value is maybe, maybe, somewhere in the range of a third and another asset. That, I think is maybe even a little optimistic. Teams, I’ve talked to teams about Trey Lance, they look at him and they see a player who has not played in a really long time, has not played a lot of football in a really long time. Then, creeps in, the fact that his collegiate resume was really one season and now it just feels like this big, massive gamble.”
Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson on Trey Lance’s trade value
Related: San Francisco 49ers have ‘very low’ confidence in Trey Lance
The concerns with Lance are legitimate. He hasn’t started at least three games in a single season since his lone breakout year at North Dakota State. If a 49ers’ coaching staff that has achieved success with backup quarterbacks and fill-in starters is ready to trade Lance after trading three first-round picks for him, it’s a warning sign for NFL teams that will impact what a general manager is now willing to trade for Lance.