NFL Week 16 is also Christmas week, and it comes with a busy holiday weekend full of gifts in the form of quality matchups.
Looking at the schedule, which begins Thursday night with a game between the New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Rams, there are several games with playoff implications. With three weeks remaining in the regular season, teams are jockeying for position.
Below are the five top games of NFL Week 16, ranked in order, based not only on the quality of the matchup, but also on what’s at stake.
5. New Orleans Saints (7-7) at Los Angeles Rams (7-7)
WHEN: Thursday at 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
This NFL Week 16 game has huge playoff implications for both teams. While the Rams currently sit at No. 7 in the NFC, with a 52-percent chance of making the playoffs. Yet a loss would drop their chances to 15 percent, and a win would increase their chances to 73 percent — a 58 percent swing.
The Saints, at No. 9 in the NFC, face a similar predicament. With their chances now at 41 percent, they go up to 70 percent with a win and down to 24 percent with a loss.
The Rams, winners of four of their past five games, have won three straight at home, while the Saints, who won two straight, have lost their last two on the road.
Related: NFL Week 16 QB rankings
4. Cleveland Browns (9-5) at Houston Texans (8-6)
WHEN: Sunday at 1 p.m. (CBS)
If C.J. Stroud were active for this game, and early reports say he’s not, then this NFL Week 16 matchup might rank one more notch higher on this list.
Not that there’s anything against Case Keenum getting a second start after leading the Texans past the Tennessee Titans last week. But having Stroud makes the matchup just a bit more intriguing against the Browns’ No. 1 pass defense.
In terms of playoff implications, the Browns, at No. 5 in the AFC, can almost clinch a playoff berth with a victory. Plus, believe it or not, they have a 2-percent chance at the No. 1 seed. The Texans, the No. 8 seed with a 53-percent shot for now, would see their chances rise to 72 percent with a win, or drop to 30 percent with a loss.
Related: NFL Week 16 power rankings
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
WHEN: Sunday at 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Both teams come into this NFL Week 16 game with the No. 4 seed in their respective conferences, but they are on different trajectories. The Jaguars have lost three straight, and the Baker Mayfield-led Bucs have won three straight.
The Jaguars (69 percent) can up their playoff hopes to 90 percent, or watch them fall to 56 percent, while the Bucs *73 percent) can go up to 84 percent, or down to 59 percent.
The big question mark going into this game is the condition of Trevor Lawrence, who is still in concussion protocol awaiting to be cleared. If not, backup C.J. Beathard will get the start. The Bucs currently have no such issues at quarterback with Mayfield, who’s coming a perfect passer rating at Green Bay.
2. Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins
WHEN: Sunday at 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
If it weren’t for the first game on this list, this would be the No. 1 game of NFL Week 16 and it might be viewed as the Super Bowl preview. Certainly, Dallas and Miami fans would like to think it still could be, especially since both teams are the No. 2 seeds in their respective conferences.
The Cowboys have clinched a playoff berth, despite losing to the Buffalo Bills, while the Dolphins are a virtual lock with a 99-percent chance. The real prize for both teams is the No. 1 seed, although the Cowboys have only a 2-percent shot, while the Dolphins’ chances of overcoming Baltimore are much better at 24 percent.
Dallas’ road struggles have been well-documented. The Cowboys are 3-4 on the road, their defense is highly vulnerable against a strong running attack, which Miami has. For the Dolphins, the question is whether star receiver Tyreek Hill will be available after sitting out last week’s game with an ankle injury.
Related: NFL Week 16 defense rankings
1. Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers
WHEN: Monday at 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN+)
This matchup would qualify as the game of the week during any week of the NFL season, not just NFL Week 16.
Both teams were the first in their conference to qualify for the playoffs, and both have a strong inside track to the No. 1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, which they currently own. The 49ers have an 89-percent chance of retaining the No. 1 seed, while the Ravens’ chances of keeping the No. 1 seed sit at 65 percent.
The game features a pair of NFL MVP candidates at quarterback — the 49ers’ Brock Purdy, who’s the current favorite, and the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, who won the honor in 2019. The Ravens, however, lost a key player when running back Keaton Mitchell went down with a season-ending knee injury.
From an NFL standpoint, this game has just about everything you could want on Christmas night. And it’s so good that we might see it again in Las Vegas in February.