The 2024 NFL regular season is nearly over and with that comes the time for award voting. This season is particularly difficult with so many compelling candidates for things like Defensive Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year and MVP. Before Week 17 kicks off, we’re providing our NFL award predictions right now with two weeks remaining. While a lot can change in the final two weeks, these would be our picks today so let’s dive in.
NFL Coach of the Year: Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings
There are compelling cases to be made for Mike Tomlin, Jim Harbaugh, Sean Payton and Matt LaFleur. LaFleur won multiple games with Malik Willis at quarterback, Tomlin is on the verge of a 10-win season with Russell Wilson and both the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos have greatly exceeded expectations. However, the choice is easy in our eyes.
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Sam Darnold entered 2024 with a career 78.3 QB rating, 59.7 percent completion rate and a 3.5 percent touchdown rate in 66 games. Under Kevin O’Connell this season, Darnold boasts a 105.4 QB rating, 67.2 percent completion rate and 6.9 percent touchdown rate. He’s been one of the best quarterbacks in football this season and the Vikings are neck-and-neck with the Detroit Lions for the best team in the NFC. O’Connell deserves this award both for his success with Darnola and Minnesota’s overall performance this year.
Offensive Player of the Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
This is one of the easier NFL award predictions to make. For as outstanding as Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has been this season, Offensive Player of the Year belongs to Saquon Barkley. He’s on pace to become just the 11th player in NFL history to record over 2,300 scrimmage yards in a season. He also has a strong shot at becoming just the ninth running back in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season. Barkley deserves OPOY and the general manager who decided he wasn’t worth re-signing probably shouldn’t be making the big decisions anymore.
- Saquon Barkley stats (ESPN): 1,838 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns, 31 receptions, 276 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns
Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt still isn’t happy he didn’t win Defensive Player of the Year last season and he carried that chip on his shoulder into 2024. Entering NFL games today, Watt leads the NFL in forced fumbles (six), is tied for the league lead in tackles for loss (18), ranks fourth in sacks (11.5), third in QB hits (17) and has the second-highest PFF grade (92.1) among all players with 10-plus games played. Watt didn’t win DPOY last year, he’ll take it back now.
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Executive of the Year: Howie Roseman, Philadelphia Eagles
An NFL.com pole of team executives had Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes coming out on top for Executive of the Year. We’re taking a slightly different approach with our NFL award predictions, as a majority of the top talent Holmes acquired (Penei Sewell, Alim McNeill, Aidan Hutchinson, Amon_Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and Brian Branch) were brought in before 2024.
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Our Executive of the Year pick goes to the decision-maker whose moves this past offseason had the biggest impact on the 2024 NFL season. Roseman signed Saquon Barkley (Offensive Player of the Year), drafted both Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell (Defensive Rookie of the Year) and signed linebacker Zack Baun (All-Pro). He also proved instrumental in hiring coordinators Vic Fangio and Kellen Moore. If this award is about moves made this year, it should go to Roseman.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
This is by far the easiest picks to make for our NFL award predictions. Jayden Daniels has been one fo the best NFL quarterbacks this season, entering Week 17 with the fourth-highest ESPN QBR (71.9) in the league. He’s led a Washington Commanders team that everyone thought was in the early stages of a multi-year rebuild to its first 10-win season in more than a decade. Daniels has also led historically improbably game-winning drives. Offensive Rookie of the Year belonged to Daniels back in October and he has never given the award up since.
- Jayden Daniels stats (ESPN): 101.5 QB rating 3,303 passing yards, 69.7% completion rate, 22-8 TD-INT, 7.6 ypa, 737 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns, 5.8 yards per carry
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Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jared Verse, EDGE, Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell deserves some strong consideration for Defensive Rookie of the Year. However, we’re giving the nod to Jared Verse. While the 19th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft only has 4.5 sacks this season, there are other NFL stats to highlight his excellence.
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The Los Angeles Rams rookie ranks 12th among edge rushers in ESPN pass-rush win rate (18 percent), tied with T.J. Watt and he leads all rookie defenders in PFF grade (86.2) and total pressures (68). The Rams defense was a massive concern following the retirement of Aaron Donald and Verse’s presence had made this unit much better than anyone expected.
Assistant Coach of the Year: Joe Brady, Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator
Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson could win AP Assistant Coach of the Year in any given season, but the honor seems to go to a coordinator whose group exceeded expectations. While having NFL MVP candidate Josh Allen certainly helps, let’s not forget that many expected this Buffalo Bills offense to take a step backward in 2024 without Stefon Diggs.
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- Buffalo Bills offense 2024: 6.1 yards-per-play average (4th in NFL), 50.7% scoring rate (2nd), 31.3 PPG (2nd), 43,4% third-down conversion rate (7th), 69.4% red-zone touchdown rate (2nd)
Instead, this has been one of the best NFL offenses in 2024. Buffalo is phenomenal in the red zone, it ranks second in points per drive (2.97), ninth in rushing yards per game (133.5), first in EPA per Play (0.208) and leads the NFL in points per second half (16.6). All of that earns Brady this award and he should be targeted for head-coaching jobs in 2025.
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NFL MVP: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
NFL MVP this year feels a lot like the Heisman Trophy. Josh Allen is similar to Travis Hunter, the heavy favorite who everyone expects to win. We do expect that the Buffalo Bills quarterback takes home MVP, the first in his career, but our choice is Lamar Jackson.
- Lamar Jackson stats 2024: 75.5 ESPN QBR, 8.9 ypa, 3,787 pass yards, 37-4 TD-INT, 67.9% completion rate, 765 rushing yards, 6.1 ypc, 3 rushing touchdowns, 0.302 Adj. EPA per Play, 92.9 PFF grade
- Josh Allen stats 2024: 76.7 ESPN QBR, 7.8 ypa, 3,549 pass yards, 26-6 TD-INT, 63.8% completion rate, 514 rushing yards, 5.3 ypc, 11 rushing touchdowns, 0.332 Adj. EPA per Play, 90.9 PFF grade
Both quarterbacks have signature performances on big stages. Allen put up 4 total touchdowns in a 48-42 win over the Detroit Lions, he is the only quarterback to beat the Kansas City Chiefs this season and his six-touchdown performance should’ve been good enough to beat the Los Angeles Rams.
Jackson, a two-time NFL MVP, is having the best season of his career. He also beat Jackson head-to-head earlier this season, a 35-10 game where Allen was kept out of the end zone and Jackson scored 3 times. The Ravens do have more losses, but neither quarterback is currently on track to earn the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye which has some sway in MVP voting. Both quarterbacks deserve the honor this season, we just believe Jackson has been the best NFL player in 2024.
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