Technically, we won’t know who truly made the right or wrong NBA free agency moves until we see how it plays out on the court. Since when will that stop us from analyzing a transaction before both parties can even sign the deal?
Granted, front offices evaluate their roster and salary cap well before the free-agency sweepstakes started on Friday. Players understand their market worth and roster fit well before free agency begins, too. And, of course, it helps that both parties have plenty of preparation (appropriate or not) to be able to agree to terms within minutes after free agency starts.
Related: Top 2023 NBA free agents – Best 100 available with positional breakdowns
Considering all of those caveats, a few notable developments already warrant an evaluation. Below is the breakdown of the biggest winners and losers on the first day of NBA free agency.
Winner – Golden State Warriors and Draymond Green renew partnership
Even if some uncertainties loomed with the sausage-making process, this development seemed inevitable. Both the Warriors and Green need each other. The Warriors need Green for his defensive mastery, distinguishable playmaking, and on-court intensity (as long as no punches are thrown).
Green needs the Warriors for his strong chemistry with Stephen Curry, his close relationship with coach Steve Kerr for the organization’s track record with mostly making the right decisions that also includes quickly correcting mistakes.
No surprise then that Green agreed to a four-year, $100 million deal. After Green tested the free-agent landscape the Warriors granted him some security. Aware of the team’s want to trim its luxury tax bill to avoid spending penalties, Green accepted a relative pay cut to help the organization’s ability to round out the rest of their roster.
Critique Green all you want for his training camp punch on Jordan Poole, but when the Warriors dealt Poole to Washington, they didn’t send a message that they condoned Green’s behavior. They sent a message that they are prioritizing players that help more with their on-court success. Aside from his role in the Warriors’ four NBA titles in six Finals appearances, Green showed last season that he can still compete at a high level.
Loser – Dallas Mavericks stuck with tough choice regarding Kyrie Irving
After supposedly planning to meet with various championship contenders that didn’t even have enough cap space to sign him to a max contract in NBA free agency, Irving accepted a three-year, $126 million deal to stay in Dallas. As former Suns GM Ryan McDonough said on NBA TV, the Mavericks essentially bid against themselves given teams don’t want Irving because of salary cap and availability concerns.
The Mavericks don’t necessarily deserve blame for retaining Irving, let alone at such an enormous long-term deal. Dallas does deserve blame, however, for putting themselves in this position. The Mavericks couldn’t perform a sign-and-trade with Irving given his depressed interest and the team’s lack of supporting cast. Though Dallas has seven other free agents they can allow to leave, they don’t have the same equity to attract other role players.
Sure, it’s nice that Dallas landed Seth Curry on a two-year deal with their biannual exception (around $4 million). That’s not a game-changing move, though. Though it remains to be seen how the Mavericks fill out their roster, they could repeat the same problems as last season. Irving and Luka Doncic became a decent offensive pairing, the Mavericks lack depth and a defensive identity to become a serious contender, let alone make the playoffs.
Winner – Fred VanVleet
After accepting a three-year, $130 million deal with the Houston Rockets, VanVleet could become the franchise player that James Harden failed to be. VanVleet has played at an All-Star level in recent seasons, has stayed durable, and has exuded positive leadership qualities. That should bode well for a young Rockets team that needed more direction and accountability following Harden’s departure three years ago.
Fred VanVleet will provide both with his steady play and his strong work ethic. Rockets first-year head coach Ime Udoka will enforce better on-court habits, too. No doubt, it’s too premature for VanVleet to surpass Harden’s body of work immediately. He guided the Rockets to eight consecutive playoff appearances, including the 2018 Western Conference Finals.
But VanVleet will ensure a more team-oriented culture and avoid injuries and fatigue much better than Harden did.
Loser – Portland Trail Blazers retaining Jerami Grant doesn’t change things
In the short term, the Blazers may have eased Damian Lillard’s concerns by retaining Grant on a five-year, $160 million deal. They might not have in the long term, though. Lillard presumably likes the move given that he recruited Grant to Portland and they established strong on-court chemistry.
But even if Portland has some talented young players (Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe), the Blazers don’t have enough to become a championship contender as Lillard hopes. They just have enough to be a playoff team, which Lillard experienced before his recent injuries. Clearly, that’s no longer the standard Lillard has for success.
Therefore, it still seems inevitable Lillard will eventually ask for a trade. Maybe it happens once the Blazers finish constructing their roster. Maybe it happens at the beginning of the 2023-24 season following any early hiccups. Maybe it happens leading into the trade deadline once it becomes clear the Blazers aren’t a title contender.
Either way, the Blazers just delayed their problems. They showed they have what it takes to stay competitive. They don’t have what it takes, however, to compete for a championship.
Winner – Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers appeared to strike the right balance between ensuring continuity while upgrading on the margins. The Lakers re-signed a key wing player (Rui Hachimura). They also upgraded their backcourt depth (Gabe Vincent, Taurean Prince) and added more wing depth (Cam Reddish).
The Lakers aren’t finished with their work just yet. They still have to retain Austin Reaves. They still have to determine whether they keep D’Angelo Russell. And they would like to add a backup center. Yet, the Lakers already proved they made the right choice by prioritizing roster depth over chasing a third star.
Loser – Toronto Raptors may need to start the rebuilding process
Perhaps to convince VanVleet to stay, the Raptors kept forward to a four-year, $80 million deal. As a consolation prize for losing VanVleet, the Raptors acquired Dennis Schroder on a two-year, $26 million deal. This might just delay the inevitable rebuilding project.
The Raptors have lost yet another key piece to their 2019 NBA championship after also parting ways with head coach Nick Nurse. With their versatile forward (Pascal Siakam) and valuable defender (OG Anunoby) eligible for extensions, it seems like the Raptors are better off hitting the reset button and collecting assets.
The Raptors have respectable players for first-year head coach Darko Rajakovic. But Toronto currently doesn’t have enough to become an Eastern Conference contender, let alone become even a playoff threat. The Raptors are better off punting while giving Rajakovic time to establish himself and for third-year forward Scottie Barnes to continue to develop.
Winner – Bruce Brown Jr.
Bruce Brown Jr. may have given up his chance to help the Denver Nuggets to defend their NBA title. But you can’t fault Brown for accepting a two-year, $45 million deal with the Indiana Pacers. That’s far more than the $7 million the Nuggets would have been able to pay him.
Though the Nuggets will miss Brown’s two-way presence, they obviously have plenty of talent and depth to overcome his absence. After fielding strong interest from multiple teams following his break-out season, Brown can grow into an even bigger role while collecting a substantially bigger paycheck.
Loser – Miami Heat need to swing for the fences
It’s understandable the Miami Heat lost Gabe Vincent given their spending restrictions. It’s respectable the Heat still retained veteran forward Kevin Love. After losing overwhelmingly to the Nuggets in the NBA Finals, though, it’s clear the Heat need another star to help Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Therefore, they need to make a big move eventually to ensure they have a chance to compete for an NBA title again.
Perhaps Miami made that first step with dealing Victor Oladipo to Oklahoma City. Stay tuned.