Major League Baseball returned to a sense of normalcy in 2021 and the MLB ratings this season provide plenty of reason for optimism and concern for the future of the sport.
When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred to postpone the start of the season. As league officials and teams prepared for a shortened 60-game season without fans, everyone knew it would come at a significant cost to annual revenue.
MLB lost $1 billion in revenue in 2020, a figure that would have been even worse if not for players taking reduced salaries, the postseason expanding and the league permitting some fans to attend the World Series.
The return of a 162-game season certainly helped the league and the MLB postseason brackets worked out almost perfectly. With all of that in mind, let’s examine the MLB ratings from the 2021 season and the playoffs thus far.
The Atlanta Braves Game 6 victory over the Houston Astros, ending the 2021 World Series and bringing the title back to Atlanta for the first time in decades, averaged 11.76 million viewers on FOX. It marked an improvement on the all-time low (10.3 million, 2.7 rating) for the final game in the 2020 World Series.
As the chart shows below, the overall numbers are an improvement for MLB and FOX. But it’s also clear, with cord-cutting increasingly popular and other sports gaining more attention than baseball, that the years of MLB TV ratings dominating are long gone.
MLB season: | 2003 | 2006 | 2010 | 2012 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
World Series ratings: | 12.8 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 6.5 |
WS average viewers (millions) | 25.47 | 15.8 | 14.22 | 12.66 | 23.4 | 13.91 | 9.78 | 11.75 |
Below, we examine some of the factors that influenced viewership this year and some of the long-term issues MLB has to address.
After pulling in a smaller audience, compared to the 2019 World Series, MLB and FOX gained a sizable boost in the TV ratings for Game 4 and 5.
Saturday night’s Game 4 broadcast on FOXaveraged 10.51 million viewers and a 5.65 rating. It was a slight bump from Game 2 and the most-watched World Series Game 4 since 2018 (Boston Red Sox-Los Angeles Dodgers, 13.56 million).
With the Atlanta Braves leading the series 3-1, an even bigger audience tuned in for the potential deciding game. Despite going head-to-head with Sunday Night Football, FOX’s Game 5 broadcast averaged 13.64 million viewers (ShowBuzzDaily). It greatly surpassed Game 6 from the 2020 World Series (10.06 million viewers) and beat out the 2019 World Series (11.39 million).
Heading into Game 6, MLB and FOX will easily pass the final numbers from last year’s World Series. It would likely require a Game 7 to match or surpass the average 2019 numbers (below).
A 2021 World Series matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros was never going to be ideal for MLB ratings. Houston is one of the most hated teams in baseball and the Braves have a smaller market size than Los Angeles. Thus far, the television ratings have offered mixed results.
Game 1 of the World Series drew 10.81 million viewers and a 6.1 rating. It was the least-watched Fall Classic game outside of the 2020 World Series, but as SportsMediaWatch notes, was the sixth-most watched sports broadcast outside of the Olympics and football.
World Series ratings for Game 2 were similar. FOX’s broadcast averaged a 5.8 rating with 10.28 million viewers across all platforms. While that is a significant spike from last year’s world series, it’s the smallest audience for a Game 2 outside of the pandemic WS.
As the table shows below, MLB ratings for the World Series have struggled in recent years as the sport’s popularity declines.
MLB season: | 2003 | 2006 | 2010 | 2012 | 2016 | 2019 | 2020 |
World Series ratings: | 12.8 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 5.1 |
WS average viewers (millions) | 25.47 | 15.8 | 14.22 | 12.66 | 23.4 | 13.91 | 9.78 |
While the audience size is larger than 2020, that was to be expected. Ratings have improved throughout the postseason, but they are falling short outside of 2020 numbers.
League Championship Series matchups between the Atlanta Braves-Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox-Houston Astros proved fruitful for MLB and its broadcast partners.
The positive results showed immediately, per SportsMediaWatch, with ALCS Game 1 posting a 3.4 rating and averaging 6.14 million viewers to FOX. It marked a 197% viewership increase from ALCS Game 1 in 2020, which went up against Sunday Night Football.
It wasn’t the only game during the LCS to cack 5-plus million viewers. Thanks to the Los Angeles market, NLCS Game 4 (5.37 million) and Game 5 (5.1 million) pulled in huge numbers. The Dodgers have been the driving force behind the MLB ratings spike, according to SMW, with all 11 postseason games involving the Dodgers rankings among the 15 most-watched games of the postseason.
The final games in each series also ended on a bright note, with FOX and TBS pulling in a sizable audience.
Major League Baseball couldn’t ask for much more from its American League and National League brackets for the MLB postseason. With marquee teams like the San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox, paired with the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves, MLB tapped into big markets.
Much like we’ve seen with the NFL, which is seeing its ratings soar this year, MLB television ratings for the playoffs are strong.
According to Sports Media Watch, Game 5 between the Dodgers and Giants averaged 6.5 million viewers for TBS. It was the largest LDS audience dating back to Game 4 2018 between the Yankees and Red Sox (7.15 million). The five-game set between San Francisco and Los Angeles delivered the five best ratings for MLB, blowing past marks from 2019 and 2020.
Just as importantly, per MLB Communications, the average viewership for the 2021 MLB postseason through the division series was at its highest marks since 2018. Viewership is up 89% from the 2020 MLB playoffs and there is a 3% spike from the playoffs in 2019.
Los Angeles is the driving force behind MLB ratings this October, so the Dodgers advancing would be huge for television networks and the league. If they do, a rematch against the Houston Astros or a clash against Boston would pull in huge numbers for the World Series.
After a thrilling fight to the finish during the regular season, MLB got what it wanted. An AL Wild Card Game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees proved to be ratings gold. Even for a game that didn’t exactly live up to the hype, the numbers were stellar for ESPN.
Between ESPN and ESPN2, 7.7 million viewers watched the Red Sox beat the Yankees in the winner-take-all game. It was the most-watched baseball game on ESPN since 1998, per Nielsen, and the network set a record for its most-streamed baseball game.
It marked a 61% increase from the AL Wild Card Game in 2019 (Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics) and drew a much larger audience than any game in the Wild Card series last year (never more than 2.6 million viewers). But, per Sports Media Watch, these numbers are a drastic fall from the last Red Sox-Yankees elimination game in 2004 (31.46 million).
TBS also fared well with its NL Wild Card Game broadcast. The Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinale one-game playoff averaged 6.67 million viewers, the second-largest audience ever for TBS in the Wild Card round. In a rare instance for TBS, thanks to the game, they had the most-watched broadcast on Saturday night.
Beginning in March 2021, many regional MLB games shifted from FOX Sports networks to Bally Sports. A result of the merger between FOX and Disney, rights to regional broadcast coverage were sold to Diamond Sports Group, with involvement from Sinclair Broadcast Group.
As detailed by Forbes’, the change has had a direct impact on MLB ratings. Because Bally Sports doesn’t have agreements with YouTube TV, Sling TV and Dish, it loses out on a significant percentage of a potential audience. The results have led to regional ratings dropping in several markets.
While viewership is up compared to the 2020 season, MLB has seen its league-wide household average fall 12% when comparing the 2021 and 2019 seasons. Of the 29 markets, 12 saw drops in TV viewerships across households.
Sinclair is reportedly exploring a direct-to-consumer launch for the 2022 MLB season, which would allow fans in their respective regions to purchase access to games for the regular season. With MLB’s heavily criticized blackout rules, which prevent fans in several areas of the country from seeing multiple teams, this could be a way for viewership to increase next year.
When Major League Baseball announced its plans for a game to honor the classic baseball film “Field of Dreams”, everyone was excited. The COVID-19 pandemic delayed the showcase game for a year, but the Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees delivered a thriller.
The most promoted game on the MLB schedule all season promised to be a hit for fans in attendance and watching on television. Sure enough, per Fox Sports’ executive vice president Michael Mulvihill, the unforgettable moment delivered.
The metered market rating immediately indicated the audience size would likely be the highest for a regular-season game since 2005. Fox saw a 135% increase from the typical overnight rating it saw for a standard broadcast.
Even before the numbers came in, MLB announced that two teams would return to Dyersville, Iowa in 2022. While commissioner Rob Manfred didn’t reveal which teams would play, Chicago Cubs skipper David Ross already let it slip that his team would be taking part.
Considering the massive success of this game, it’s a safe bet that MLB will look to expand on it in the future. The league could host multiple games at the stadium, featuring some of the most popular teams. In an effort to maximize MLB ratings, it could broadcast one game on Fox for the network’s Saturday broadcast and then play a second game on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.
Fox has been MLB’s primary broadcast partner since 1996. The network extended its media rights contract in 2018, agreeing to a seven-year deal worth $5.1 billion. It marked a notable increase over the previous agreement, expiring after the 2021 season, which paid MLB $4.2 billion across eight years for 52 regular-season games, the MLB All-Star Game, two Division Series, one League Championship Series and the World Series.
As the broadcasting fee skyrockets, World Series ratings are dropping. While MLB has seen some fluctuation from 2000-’19, the 2020 World Series finished with troubling numbers.
Given MLB playoff ratings also dipped in 2020, both the league and network needed viewership to rebound in 2021. Thus far, the MLB ratings for regionally broadcasted games on Fox have been a mixed bag.
Viewership is dependent on the variety of options fans have to choose from and the specific matchup being featured. One thing that helps build a lasting audience is star power. Moving forward, there is some hope in that regard for baseball.
Young stars like Fernando Tatís Jr., Ronald Acuña Jr. and Shohei Ohtani are generating more buzz. Better yet, teams in big markets (Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets) all project as World Series contenders this year.
Fox will be MLB’s primary broadcast partner for years to come, but the league’s ties with ESPN are changing.
ESPN expanded its baseball coverage in 1990, but the network’s devotion to the game has changed over time The network returned to broadcasting postseason games in 2014, in addition to its Sunday Night Baseball, Monday Night Baseball and Wednesday Night Baseball programming.
But as MLB ratings and its popularity dipped in recent years, ESPN focused its resources on the NFL and NBA. That is reflected in the recent deal the network signed with MLB.
ESPN and Major League Baseball signed a new extension in May, with the network exclusively broadcasting 30 regular-season games per year through 2028. The seven-year deal begins in 2022 and grants ESPN exclusive rights to broadcast any expansion to the MLB Wild Card round. The postseason is expected to be expanded in the next collective bargaining agreement.
The network’s decision was likely made after evaluating its viewership. Ratings for Sunday night’s weekly broadcast dipped in 2020 and have steadily decreased in recent years. However, things are looking up in 2021..
During the All-Star Break, MLB announced that ratings for Sunday Night Baseball are up 26% compared to the 2020 MLB season.
ESPN is never going to see the audience it pulls in for Monday Night Football, averaging nearly 12 million viewers per game. But this season’s numbers are promising for the game.
As detailed by Ken Rosenthal, ESPN is paying less under the new seven-year deal ($3.85 billion) than under the expiring eight-year contract ($5.6 billion). Losing $150 million per season is significant, but MLB could still come out ahead.
With all of this in mind, let’s examine what the MLB ratings mean for baseball’s future.
With the help of young stars like Shohei Ohtani and Fernando Tatis Jr. MLB ratings improved for the Home Run Derby and the numbers rose for the All-Star Game.
One huge positive for MLB, per SportsMediaWatch, this was ESPN’s most-watched broadcast since the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. At a time when ESPN has pulled back on some of its MLB broadcasts, the success of the derby is significant.
With Ohtani leading off for the American League and starting on the mound, there was more interest in this year’s MLB All-Star Game. As a result, viewership rose compared to the 2019 event.
It’s an improvement for baseball, but there is one slight cause for concern. It was still the second-smallest audience in recorded history for the MLB All-Star Game. For the sake of comparison, via Sportico’s Anthony Crupi, ratings over several decades highlight the declining popularity.
Before other sports exploded in popularity, MLB ratings for the All-Star Game averaged 22-plus million in the early 1990s.
One important trend, per SportsMediaWatch, MLB ratings for the Home Run Derby have been higher than the All-Star Game in three of the past four years among the 18-49 demographic.
There are small positives for baseball, largely tied into the growth of streaming. MLB.TV, which allows fans to watch out-of-market games, is quickly gaining in popularity. Furthermore, YouTube is broadcasting 21 games in its third season partnered with MLB.
It’s at least a sign that the league is navigating its way through modernizing sports. But key issues are preventing this game from growing.
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Plenty can be made of the MLB ratings on cable and what it means for the game’s future. If comparing it to other pro sports, the NFL lost more viewers from one Sunday Night Football game to the next than any MLB regular-season game drew this year.
Baseball will never return to its peak as America’s Pastime, both the NFL and NBA evolved much faster. While the league started falling behind before Manfred took over, nothing he has done very little to inspire confide for baseball’s long-term outlook. Meanwhile, the NBA and NFL secured a stranglehold of the future with younger fans.
The effects of this still haven’t really hit yet. MLB smashed its revenue record in 2016, blew past that mark in 2018 and the league still cried poor after setting a new record ($10.7 billion) in 2019.
There are several driving forces behind this, a majority of which fall on the shoulders of Manfred and league officials.
Part of this problem was recently highlighted by ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith, who wrongly blamed Shohei Ohtani for not speaking English and his need for an interpreter harms the game. For years now, MLB has utterly failed to market its stars.
Ohtani, Tatís Jr, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are the future of baseball and their roots across the globe, along with their ability to speak multiple languages, make them the perfect faces for MLB. Plus, they all embrace the type of game this sport should become, where players are encouraged to have fun and let loose.
Declining interest in baseball doesn’t fall on the players’ shoulders, it’s because MLB and commissioner Rob Manfred have made done nothing to attract more fans, especially a young audience.
The 2021 season has also sparked debate about issues on the field, namely the rising strikeout rate and the drop in batting average. MLB ratings are surviving the historic decline in run production for now, but the stats this season hint that might not last for long.
Baseball’s launch angle revolution has played a part in the sport changing, but the weight of its impact is receivng too much attention. A greater issue, one that MLB has ignored until now, is the use of sticky substances that many players viewed as the biggest scandal in sports.
Pitchers already held a massive advantage, with hitters being the ones that had to react. Modern technology, allowing pitchers to fine-tune their mechanics and spin rate, has made hitting a baseball harder than ever. There’s nothing Manfred can do about pitchers taking advantage of tracking data and advanced coaching to improve their game, but MLB must be accountable for the rise in three-outcome ABs.
Extreme defensive shifts and hitters’ focusing on power, which MLB contracts incentivize, aren’t the league’s biggest problem. If teams are limited to specific defensive positioning on the field and hitters are the only ones asked to change, the issue won’t go away. That only comes if MLB eliminates what has become the equivalent of pitchers on steroids.
MLB must adapt to survive. League officials must do a far better job marketing baseball’s biggest stars, especially those who will be the face of this sport for years to come. Manfred must start cracking down this season on pitchers using substances to enhance their pitches and umpires.
At a time when there is uncertainty about whether or not Manfred even likes baseball, there is an opportunity to fix the game. Moving the pitching mound back (currently being tested in the Atlantic League), creating more opportunities for stolen bases (spike after rule changes in A-ball) and limiting the size of pitching staffs are all long-term solutions to help solve a problem.
But actions need to be taken down. If not for the fans, who want to see more entertaining three-hour games, then for MLB ratings and revenue. Because if nothing is done, networks will begin to realize broadcasting MLB games isn’t worth the price when baseball can’t build a relationship with its future audience nor produce an entertaining game.