As the Las Vegas Raiders prepare for their first opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, media outlets have released NFL predictions for the 2022 season. Most pundits, with the exception of NFL Network’s Rich Eisen, haven’t bought into the Silver and Black as a playoff contender. Did general manager Dave Ziegler and head coach Josh McDaniels do enough to open a Super Bowl window in Vegas?
We’ll find out in four months.
After the Raiders clinched a playoff berth for the second time in six seasons, anything less than a postseason appearance would look like a massive disappointment with the addition of All-Pros Davante Adams and Chandler Jones. The front office also used its financial resources to re-up on multiple contracts. Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow and Maxx Crosby all signed new deals.
With roster cornerstone pieces in place, the Raiders have to start their run now. Clearly, this isn’t a regime that’s interested in a rebuild and with $23.6 million in dead cap in 2023, Ziegler must hit on some of his low-cost signings this year. Or else, he’ll have to draft exceptionally well and shop in the bargain bin next offseason.
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Let’s take a look at the strengths that could propel the Raiders back to the playoffs and weaknesses that can derail their season. Then, we’ll finish with a final win-loss prediction.
Strengths of the Las Vegas Raiders roster
First, the good news.
Vegas’ offense should finish within the top 10 in yards and points if Carr can stay upright for a decent amount of time. He’s poised to post career highs in multiple categories with the help of Adams, wide receiver Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller.
Within the AFC West, one can argue that Carr has the best group of pass-catchers. This unit tops the trio of Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Seth Roberts or Jared Cook between 2015 and 2017. At 29 years old, Adams is still in his prime years, Renfrow has ascended to a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver and Waller will go into the 2022 campaign as arguably one of the league’s top-three pass-catching tight ends.
Despite all the attention on the passing attack, the Raiders should have a more balanced offense with a solid running back group that features two hard-nosed ball-carriers in Josh Jacobs and Zamir White along with reliable pass-catchers in Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden.
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With a bevy of playmakers at the offensive skill positions, McDaniels should be able to beat opponents through the air and on the ground as he’s done with the New England Patriots in the past.
Though fans shouldn’t want to see Daniel Carlson come off the sideline to kick field goals too frequently, he’s a quality asset who can score some points if the offense stalls in opponent territory. Carlson has made 73 out of his last 78 field-goal attempts (93.6 percent accuracy) over the past two seasons.
Defensively, Vegas may see its starting safeties make strides.
Trevon Moehrig had an impressive rookie campaign, allowing a 58.3 percent completion rate, a 92.5 passer rating and two touchdowns in coverage while logging six pass breakups and an interception. Ideally, the coaching staff would probably want him to hold on to more interceptions when he gets his hands on the ball (see the Washington Commanders’ Week 13 game last year).
If Johnathan Abram avoids injury, he should have one of his most impactful seasons. The fourth-year pro will likely struggle in deep coverage for his entire career, though defensive coordinator Patrick Graham’s willingness to blitz can put him in a position to shine with his aggressive style near the line of scrimmage. We saw a little bit of that in the preseason games.
In the slot and perhaps on the boundary, Nate Hobbs’ ascension will be the key to the Raiders’ pass defense. He lined up on the outside as a collegian at Illinois and moved inside under defensive coordinator Gus Bradley last year, allowing 7.8 yards per completion, which ranked 14th among all defenders.
Vegas’ reserve pass-rushers deserve more attention. Behind Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, Malcolm Koonce and Tashawn Bower can bring pressure in a second pass-rush wave on third downs and late in games. Koonce and Bower may outperform 2019 first-rounder Clelin Ferrell on the edge, though overall, it’s an underrated group that can help out a young secondary.
Related: Why Las Vegas Raiders’ Nate Hobbs could rise to stardom
Areas of weakness
Ziegler and McDaniels may look back on this offseason and realize that they didn’t do enough to address the offensive line. Through the preseason, the quarterbacks took a total of 15 sacks, but Chase Garbers’ tendency to hold on to the ball inflated his sack number (six).
Still, the Raiders played their potential starting offensive linemen for much of the exhibition period, and the unit looked noticeably better on run-blocking downs than pass-blocking scenarios.
Don’t be surprised if rookie third-rounder Dylan Parham moves into the starting unit at some point if he’s not on the field with the first-stringers in Week 1.
Right guard Lester Cotton Sr. struggled against the Miami Dolphins in the preseason, allowing two pressures (including a sack). Center Andre James allowed three pressures in his last two preseason appearances. Left guard John Simpson permitted five pressures between the second and third exhibition outings. Offensive tackle Jermaine Eluemunor allowed four pressures in four preseason contests.
With those pressure numbers, the coaching staff may want to see Parham and rookie seventh-round tackle Thayer Munford Jr. on the field sooner than later.
If Carr feels constant pocket pressure, he may not have time to allow big plays to develop downfield. In the worst-case scenario, McDaniels will have to emphasize the quick passing game or use an extra tight end or offensive lineman to block for max protection.
On the other side of the ball, the Raiders took notable risks with their depth when they traded Trayvon Mullen to the Arizona Cardinals, cut Darius Phillips and kept Amik Robertson, who didn’t play well in the preseason.
According to Pro Football Focus, Robertson allowed completions on nine out of 10 targets for 94 yards and missed two tackles.
As noted above, Hobbs will likely see an expanded role, and he must perform well. If not, the Raiders would have to rely on Anthony Averett to make another leap in a starting role, Robertson’s inside-out versatility or undrafted rookie Sam Webb.
With five cornerbacks on the roster, Graham doesn’t have a lot to work with in terms of experience at the position. He needs Hobbs to turn into a star. Otherwise, Averett must be a serviceable plan B in a bigger role.
Las Vegas Raiders season projection
Oddly, Vegas’ strengths and weaknesses are closely linked in the terms of position groups.
While Carr has the playmakers to light up defenses, he has questionable pass protection.
Defensively, Crosby, Jones, Koonce, Bower and even Bilal Nichols can all pressure the pocket, and they’ll need to because the cornerbacks on the back end have a lot to prove. Rock Ya-Sin has been benched multiple times during his three-year run with the Indianapolis Colts.
Essentially, the Raiders’ strengths have to mask some of their weaknesses.
Up to this point, Ziegler hasn’t made any significant moves for the offensive line other than cut 2021 first-rounder Alex Leatherwood.
McDaniels can work around a shaky offensive line, but in a division with Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Chris Jones, Frank Clark, (a healthy) Bradley Chubb and Randy Gregory, that’s a tough task.
On the same day that the front office cut Leatherwood, it traded away a serviceable starting cornerback in Mullen.
Carr and his playmakers may have to win more scoring shootouts than fans would like to see as the defensive backs grow through the season. With that said, McDaniels’ creative mind can put the pieces in place to get the job done more times than not.
Secondly, the Raiders, who only committed 13 penalties through the preseason, will take the field as a more discipline ball club, which is the possible difference between an eight-nine-win team and a 10-11-win squad.
Like every other team, the Raiders have roster warts, but they also have the talent to overcome some of their issues, though, a competitive AFC West along with some tough out-of-division opponents such as the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints will make it difficult for them.
- Record: 10-7
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The Silver and Black will need to win a division or conference tiebreaker or two in the AFC to get back into the playoffs. The team’s Week 18 home game against the Chiefs may be another play-in postseason scenario similar to last year’s matchup with the Chargers.
Maurice Moton covers the Raiders for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.