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NFL insider: Not an overreaction to say Dak Prescott will leave Dallas Cowboys in free agency

Dak Prescott
Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Despite their lack of playoff success, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys have been an ideal pairing since he became the 135th pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Back then, no one knew what the future held for the former Mississippi State quarterback. He certainly wasn’t expected to become the starter, especially in his rookie season.

Yet, Prescott did start all 16 games in his first season and even led the Cowboys to a 13-3 record, a mark they haven’t matched or topped since. While the team hasn’t been able to get over the hump during their championship chase, Prescott has continued to improve his craft and even led the NFL’s top-scoring offense in two of the past three seasons.

There’s no one debating whether Prescott is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL anymore. The three-time Pro Bowl QB is one of the best in the business, and passing for a league-leading 36 touchdowns in 2023 is the latest proof.

But now it’s time for Prescott to get paid again. He’s heading into the season in a contract year, which is somewhat rare for an established starting quarterback in the modern era. Kirk Cousins tried that this past offseason. Despite coming off an Achilles tear, he still landed a four-year, $180 million contract, making him one of the NFL’s highest-paid quarterbacks.

Related: See where Dak Prescott lands in Sportsnaut’s NFL QB Rankings

Could Dak Prescott leave Dallas Cowboys in 2025?

Instead, Prescott is set to have a $55.4 million cap hit in 2024. But both the Cowboys and their star quarterback would like to reach a long-term extension. Yet, for whatever reason, the two sides haven’t been able to see eye to eye during contract negotiations, and now some are wondering if they ever will.

The latest example comes from ESPN NFL insider Dan Graziano, who doesn’t believe it’s an overreaction to say Prescott could ditch the Cowboys and sign with a new team next offseason.

“As we approach the start of training camp, Prescott and the Cowboys have not been able to reach agreement on a contract extension. Dallas’ star quarterback has one year left on his contract, which includes a no-trade clause and a rule that prevents the team from using the franchise or transition tags to keep him off the free agent market. Prescott will carry a 2024 salary cap hit of just over $55 million, and if the Cowboys don’t re-sign him before the start of the 2025 league year in March, he would cost them just over $40 million in dead cap charges for 2025.

The team is in a tough spot, as Prescott’s contract situation gives him all the leverage here. And he doesn’t have to do a deal with the Cowboys unless it’s exactly the deal he wants. That’s why the possibility of Prescott hitting the market as an unrestricted free agent quarterback — and cashing in with a deal likely to exceed $60 million per year — is not far-fetched.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

To be clear, this is NOT what I am predicting. I still think the most likely outcome here is that Prescott and the Cowboys find a way to get a deal done before he becomes a free agent. Heck, they could even get one done before the start of this season for all we know. But if they don’t finalize something before or during the season, I think it would be a massive mistake to rule out this possibility.”

Dan Graziano on Dak Prescott’s future

Graziano goes on to speculate on the number of teams who may need a quarterback replacement after this season. The teams he named were the Raiders, Giants, Jets, Saints, Steelers, Titans, Rams and Seahawks, in no particular order.

The Giants? After watching the door hit Saquon Barkley on his way to Philadelphia, turning around and stealing the Cowboys’ franchise quarterback a year later would be a dramatic NFC East divisional shift. Yet, it’s possible Daniel Jones reclaims his spot as the team’s future at the position with a healthy season.

But that doesn’t mean there won’t be plenty of others who are monitoring how Dallas handles arguably one of the biggest contract situations in Cowboys franchise history. If Jerry Jones and Co. flinch, expect to see a handful of teams ready to pounce.

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