Week 5 of the college football season delivers some heavy-hitting matchups for everyone to enjoy. With clashes between Oregon vs Penn State, Ole Miss vs LSU and Alabama vs Georgia, this could be one of the best weekends in college football this season.
Let’s dive into our Week 5 College Football Predictions, with some of the best college football games this weekend featuring incredible matchups and even a few ranked-versus-ranked duels.
(21) USC Trojans — 35, (23) Illinois Fighting Illini — 24
USC Trojans’ Jayden Maiava has statistically been the best quarterback in college football this season. Entering Week 4, he leads the nation in ESPN QBR (95.5). he now gets to face an Illinois Fighting Illini defense that just allowed more passing touchdowns (five) than incompletions (two) by Fernando Mendoza. This matchup also feels like an important litmus test for both teams.
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Unfortunately for Illinois, it will be without All-Big Ten defensive back Xavier Scott (leg) for this game and the weeks to come. That’s a massive blow against a quarterback who has completed 11-of-17 passes (64.7 percent completion rate) for 462 passing yards (27.2 ypa), per Pro Football Focus, on throws 20-plus yards downfield this season. While Mendoza (13-for-13, 2-0 TD-INT, 12.2 ypa) attacked Illinois in the short area of the field (0-9 yards past line of scrimmage), Maiava has a 91.7 percent completion rate with an 11.8 ypa on 24 of his attempts in that range this season.
What could really swing this matchup, though, is the Trojans’ pass rush. USC is tied for the most sacks (16) in the nation and Illinois quarterback Luek Altmyer has completed just 51.9 percent of his pass attempts with a 46.9 PFF grade when pressured this season.
(22) Notre Dame Fighting Irish — 35, Arkansas Razorbacks — 31
There’s a reason this matchup between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Arkansas Razorbacks has one of the highest projected point totals (64.5) in Week 5. This season, Notre Dame (402.0) and Arkansas (371.0) each rank near the bottom in total yards per game allowed, with both teams allowing over 21 first downs per game to their opponents.
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Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love will look to take advantage of a Razorbacks’ run defense allowing 157.5 rushing yards, 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game, and a 4.2 yards-per-carry average. As for Arkansas, quarterback Taylen Green (90.5 ESPN QBR, fourth in FBS) gets to attack a pass defense surrendering 8.1 yards per attempt and 289.3 passing yards per game despite opponents completing just 57.9 percent of their passes versus Notre Dame.
This will be a tough road test for freshman quarterback CJ Carr, but he’s shown promising flashes against much better defenses (Miami and Texas A&M). We’re predicting Carr leads the go-ahead touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter, with Chris Ash’s defense finally getting its first big stop of 2025.
(1) Ohio State Buckeyes — 38, Washington Huskies — 21
Unsurprisingly, the Washington Huskies (3-0) are flying under the radar entering Week 5. Jedd Fisch’s program has an opportunity to change that on Saturday afternoon at home, but it’s a tall order considering the matchup versus this Ohio State Buckeyes passing game.
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That’s because Washington’s defense has had some trouble against downfield shots this season. In Week 4, Washington State quarterback Zevi Eckhaus went 2-for-5 on throws 20-plus yards downfield, earning an 85.1 PFF grade with 75 passing yards (14.8 ypa). Colorado State also had a fair amount of success attacking this Huskies secondary vertically in the season opener (105 yards on three completions).
It’s Washington’s biggest problem in this matchup. Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin is 9-for-9 on throws of 20-plus yards this season, averaging 43.8 yards per attempt with six touchdowns. The Huskies simply don’t have the answers to stop Jeremiah Smith or Carnell Tate, especially against a Buckeyes’ offensive line that has allowed just 1 sack and 10 pressures this season.
(13) Ole Miss Rebels — 27, (4) LSU Tigers — 24
The Ole Miss Rebels getting to avoid a trip to Death Valley means everything for Lane Kiffin’s offense in this Week 5 matchup. In their meeting last year against the LSU Tigers defense, Mississippi had 12 penalties for 110 yards with two turnovers, and Jaxson Dart was sacked twice. Playing this one in front of a crowd that will be quiet for Ole Miss’ offense could be a difference-maker.
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LSU’s defense has been great at limiting passing touchdowns (0.8 per game) this season, and they’ve been exceptional (64 rushing yards per game allowed and a 2.6 yards-per-carry average) versus the run. The same can’t be said for Ole Miss’ defense, which is allowing 190.5 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry.
While LSU doesn’t run the football much (43.94 percent rush rate), Caden Durham has performed much better versus Power 4 opponents (83.5 rushing yards per game, 5.2 yards per carry) than he has against Group of Six teams. So, the Tigers’ dormant ground game (3.7 yards per carry) could come alive on Saturday afternoon. However, we’re betting on the home-field advantage and the recent stellar play of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (88.5 QBR) to lead the Rebels to their biggest win of the year.
(9) Texas A&M Aggies — 28, Auburn Tigers — 20
Coming off a huge road victory over Notre Dame, the Texas A&M Aggies had two weeks to prepare for the Auburn Tigers. Meanwhile, Hugh Freeze’s program just lost its first game of the season. While a poor call might have played a key role in that, the performance from this Tigers offensive line puts the program at risk of consecutive SEC losses.
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Texas A&M comes into this one with an 8.49 percent sack rate, tied with Auburn in averaging three sacks per game. When Tigers quarterback Jackson Arnold is pressured—44.5 PFF grade, 16 sacks taken, and 6.2 yards per attempt—the results have been disastrous for this offense.
If the Aggies’ defense is pressuring Arnold, Auburn likely won’t find the end zone three times in this game, and even cracking 20 points could prove challenging. Without that pass rush, Arnold can find vulnerabilities in the secondary. The big X-factor in this game is Marcel Reed’s ability to find a few explosive plays, as Auburn is allowing a relatively high 7.4 yards per attempt this season with a 6-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
(15) Tennessee Volunteers — 38, Mississippi State Bulldogs — 34
Don’t look now, but Jeff Lebby’s Mississippi State Bulldogs have already doubled their win total from last season. That’s largely thanks to an offense putting up 40 points and 444 total yards per game through the first four weeks. Speaking of offenses, the Tennessee Volunteers are averaging the fourth-most points (53.5) and seventh-most total yards (554) in college football.
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Expect a shootout on Saturday afternoon at Davis Wade Stadium. Tennessee’s secondary (279 passing yards per game and a 67.1 percent completion rate allowed) has been decimated by injuries and struggles when the pass rush (15 sacks, tied for fifth most in FBS) doesn’t get home. That said, Mississippi State has generated limited pressure (five sacks) this season and isn’t effective at rushing the passer.
Ultimately, the talent advantage favors Tennessee. The Volunteers have also been battle-tested this season against Georgia, with that experience likely helping them finish off Mississippi State in Week 5.
Related: Week 5 College Football Rankings, including Tennessee and Mississippi State
(6) Oregon Ducks — XX, (3) Penn State Nittany Lions —
Fittingly, the two best college football games this weekend occur at night. On NBC, it’s a Big Ten battle between the Oregon Ducks (4-0) and the Penn State Nittany Lions. All that’s at stake in Week 5 is the No. 1 spot in the top 25 college football rankings and potential seeding in the College Football Playoff, so it’s fitting this game will be played under the lights at Beaver Stadium.
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Viewed as a potential top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft coming into the season, senior quarterback Drew Allar (38.8 ESPN QBR, 106th in FBS) is not playing his best football. In the last two games, he’s completed just 56.5 percent of his pass attempts, averaging only 6.6 yards per attempt. Oregon’s defense has allowed just a 51.1 percent completion rate with a 0-4 TD-INT rate and 120 passing yards per game this season.
Penn State’s defense is just as good, if not better. Opponents have averaged just 4.6 pass yards per attempt with a 51.9 percent completion rate this season. The Nittany Lions’ defense can wreak havoc in the backfield, and pressure is not something Ducks quarterback Dante Moore has fared well against this season.
On paper, the Nittany Lions are the right pick thanks to home-field advantage, a better defense, and a more experienced quarterback. However, Allar’s recent ineffectiveness and James Franklin’s 4-20 record versus top-10 teams lead us to pick Oregon.
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(5) Georgia Bulldogs — 27, (17) Alabama Crimson Tide — 23
The only shame with the Week 5 college football schedule is that there will need to be two screens to watch the two best games on Saturday night. Fittingly, ABC has the SEC bout between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs.
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Heading into this matchup, many will point to the 1-6 record that Georgia coach Kirby Smart has versus Alabama. It’s important to add context to that, though. First, five of those losses came against Nick Saban rather than Kalen DeBoer. Second, this is the first time DeBoer’s Crimson Tide are facing Smart at Sanford Stadium.
It’s a very safe bet that star wide receiver Ryan Williams will explode for some big plays against a Bulldogs secondary that allowed 177 receiving yards and three touchdowns to Vols wideout Chris Brazzell II. To that point, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has a 90.0 PFF grade with a 55.6 percent completion rate when throwing deep (20-plus yards downfield) this season.
However, Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton is playing great football as of late. Georgia (209 rush yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry) is also excellent at running the football. Alabama getting running back Jam Miller and defensive lineman Tim Keenan III back for this game is huge and will help this one come down to the wire. In the end, we’re picking the better-coached team to win at home.
