Bold UFC predictions for UFC 295 card, including a shocking KO win for Jiri Prochazka

By Jason Burgos

·Updated: November 11, 2023

Get a round of bold UFC predictions for the promotion’s UFC 295 card inside New York’s Madison Square Garden.

After an event in Brazil last week, the MMA world leader will be back stateside for its lone pay-per-view show in November. The card in New York City will feature two championship bouts and be led by a fan-friendly light heavyweight title fight between Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira.

Prochazka will be competing for the first time in 17 months after a serious shoulder injury forced him to relinquish the belt last year. Pereira will be looking to make history as the fastest fighter to win UFC titles in two divisions.

UFC 295 will also include an interim heavyweight title fight when top five fighters Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich face off. The bout replaces an originally planned booking between champion Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. Jones was removed from the card after suffering a major injury to his pectoral muscle last month.

With all of that in mind, we make four bold UFC predictions for several of the major bouts on Saturday’s card followed by a complete rundown of our UFC 295 picks.

5 bold predictions for UFC 295 on Saturday night

Jiří Procházka (29-3-1) vs. Alex Pereira (8-2)

Prochazka vs. Pereira has the potential to be a “fight of the year” contender. Both men are exceedingly talented strikers but in very different ways. Pereira is more of a technical striker who likes to use his kicks and find the right moments to unload the power in his fists. While Prochazka is very unorthodox and has the unique length to land his unpredictable and varied strikes.

That style divide and a strong chin will be what helps “Denisa” win on Saturday night. His durability is part of his unique approach and “Poatan” will test it this weekend — several times. But in those firefights, as the bout drags on, the 36-year-old and his slowing reflexes will get caught with something he does not see coming that ends his night early.

UFC 295 odds: Jiří Procházka (+105) vs. Alex Pereira (-258)
Prediction: Prochazka by KO, Round 4

Sergei Pavlovich (18-1) vs. Tom Aspinall (13-3)

Aspinall and Pavlovich is a fantastic clash of rising stars at heavyweight. Both men have the potential to be champions and are deserving of a scrap for the title. Instead, they face each other for interim gold on Saturday. Each is a talented striker with KO power and grappling that has to be respected. However, the Englishman has the speed that will be the difference-maker

Look for Aspinall to be careful and eventually set up an unseen head kick that stuns Pavlovich and leads to a wild TKO finish and the first English UFC heavyweight champion.

Odds: Sergei Pavlovich (-102) vs. Tom Aspinall (-118)
UFC Prediction: Aspinall by TKO, Round 2

Tabatha Ricci (9-1) vs. Lupita Godinez (11-3)

Lupita Godinez versus Tabatha Ricci is a really fun fight of talented strawweight prospects. Both women have scored notable wins in the company and are currently on win streaks. What makes Godinez a tough out is her cardio and grappling, however, “Baby Shark” will solve that puzzle this weekend.

Expect Ricci to play keep away and be on guard at all times for her opponent’s wrestling. Eventually, she will wear Godinez down with her movement, peppering strikes, and coast to a decision win.

Odds: Tabatha Ricci (+136) vs. Lupita Godinez (-162)
UFC Prediction: Ricci by unanimous decision

Jared Gordon (19-6) vs. Mark Madsen (12-1)

If Mark O. Madsen had gotten into the sport at 25 instead of 29, he could have competed for a lightweight title by now. However, at 39, the combo of age and inexperience is difficult to combat. While he is still an elite wrestler with Olympic credentials, he is unlikely to ever reach his potential.

On Saturday, he faces a man who seems to be hitting a peak as a UFC fighter and is always a tough out. While Jared Gordon won’t compete for a world title one day either, at this juncture of their careers, he is still a better UFC fighter than the man from Denmark.

Odds: Jared Gordon (-185) vs. Mark Madsen (+154)
UFC Prediction: Gordon by unanimous decision

Jéssica Andrade (24-12) vs. Mackenzie Dern (13-3)

Saturday night seems like former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade’s last chance to prove she is still a top-10 level fighter in the UFC. The 36-fight veteran has lost three straight — all finishes — and is showing the wear of a long career, despite only being 32.

At UFC 295 she has a tough test to break the slump against with MacKenzie Dern. Dern has been in search of that marquee win to hang her hat on for some time. In recent big fights against elite foes, she has come up short, but that will change Saturday. The talented grappler will find a way to ground Andrade early and hand the former champ the fifth submission loss of her career.

It will be interesting to see if “Bate Estaca” calls it a career if she does indeed suffer a fourth straight loss by finish.

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Odds: Jéssica Andrade (+164) vs. Mackenzie Dern (-198)
UFC Prediction: Dern by submission, Round 1

Complete UFC predictions for UFC 295

Jiří Procházka vs. Alex Pereira – Prochazka by KO, Round 4
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall – Aspinall by TKO, Round 2
Jéssica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern – Dern by submission, Round 1
Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis – Saint-Denis by TKO, Round 2
Pat Sabatini vs. Diego Lopes – Lopes by TKO, Round 2
Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa – Erceg by unanimous decision
Tabatha Ricci vs. Lupita Godinez – Ricci by unanimous decision
Mateusz Rębecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts – Rebecki by submission, Round 3
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev – Sadykhov by unanimous decision
Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen – Gordon by unanimous decision
Kyung Ho Kang vs. John Castañeda – Castaneda by split-decisison
Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas – Borjas by TKO, Round 2
Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers – Buzukja by unanimous decision