The stage is set for the 2024 Super Bowl, delivering a fantastic matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. As part of our Super Bowl LVIII preview, we’re taking a look at the critical matchups to watch and stats to know that will ultimately determine the 49ers vs Chiefs game.
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You will see the best NFL players in this fantastic Super Bowl matchup. From Patrick Mahomes chasing all-time greats to a 49ers roster with multiple first-team All-Pros on each side of the ball. If that’s not enough, Super Bowl LVIII also features several future Hall of Famers as well.
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Let’s dive into our Super Bowl LVIII preview with key matchups to watch for the 49ers vs Chiefs.
Super Bowl LVIII preview: Key matchups for 49ers vs Chiefs
Christian McCaffrey vs Kansas City Chiefs run defense
While the 49ers’ offense isn’t as run-heavy as it was in previous seasons under quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, Christian McCaffrey is the centerpiece of Kyle Shanahan’s scheme.
- Christian McCaffrey stats (2023): 1,287 yards created (1st in NFL), 3.8 yards created per touch, 4.9 true yards per carry (5th), 7.4% breakaway run rate (4th), 77 evaded tackles (1st)
Even against the best run defenses in the NFL, McCaffrey is electric. With two weeks to prepare against a bottom-five run defense, the NFL Offensive Player of the Year has a shot to be the Super Bowl MVP.
Kansas City Chiefs run defense
| Rush YPG | Yards per Carry | Rush EPA Allowed | Run-Stop Win Rate | Rush DVOA |
| 113.2 (17th) | 4.5 (25th) | -0.034 (28th) | 27% (32nd) | 27th |
Things didn’t improve in the NFL playoffs. Kansas City allowed a 4.6 yards per carry average to opponents and 113 rushing yards per game. Of particular concern is the effectiveness at which opponents ran the football, with the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens each averaging over 4.1 ypc.
This could specifically pose a problem against San Francisco. In an in-depth piece for the Touchdown Wire, Doug Farrar broke down the 49ers’ strength over Kansas City in this matchup. Specifically, San Francisco led the NFL in inside and outside zone runs this season. On those runs, McCaffrey led the NFL in yards (1,265), yards after contact (755) and touchdowns (15). The Chiefs, who faced the seventh-most zone runs, surrendered 1,256 rushing yards, including 774 after contact, and 5 touchdowns on zone runs.
While defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo’s reliance on dime personnel and light boxes will give the Chiefs’ defense the advantage against the pass, it will limit their effectiveness at stopping a run. For a unit that finished bottom 10 in the percentage of positive rushing plays allowed and had the fifth-worst stuff rate (runs for 0 or fewer yards), Kansas City could have big issues against McCaffrey.
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Brandon Aiyuk vs L’Jarius Sneed
One of the best things about the Super Bowl is seeing elite talents go head-to-head with the Lombardi Trophy at stake. We won’t see Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes go one-on-one at Allegiant Stadium, but there will be a man-on-man matchup between 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk and Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed in Super Bowl LVIII.
Sneed, an impending free agent, played like an All-Pro this season. After excelling in the slot, the 6-foot-1 defensive back moved to the outside in 2023 and is thriving. He’ll square off against Aiyuk, San Francisco’s 6-foot wideout who earned second-team All-Pro honors this past season.
| Win Rate vs Man coverage | Target Separation | Yards per Route Run | QB Rating per Target | True Catch Rate | ||
| Brandon Aiyuk | 37% (43rd) | 1.78 (32nd) | 3.18 | 124.0 (4th) | 96.2% (9th) | |
| Man Coverage Success Rate | Target Separation | Yards per Target Allowed | QB Rating Allowed | Catch Rate Allowed | ||
| L’Jarius Sneed | 77.3% (6th) | 1.3 (11th) | 4.9 (5th) | 64.5 (3rd) | 50.5% (8th) |
Thanks to Sneed, Kansas City effectively blanketed No. 1 wide receivers this season. During the regular season, opposing No. 1 receivers averaged just 43.8 receiving yards per game against the Chiefs. Putting that into greater context, Zay Flowers was the only No. 1 receiver to eclipse 100 yards versus Kansas City, per Tej Seth.
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One of the best route-runners in the game lined up against one of the best cover corners is a fantastic matchup for Super Bowl LVIII. We should see a lot of it too, with Sneed playing man coverage on 31.6 percent of his snaps this season, which is the sixth-highest among corners with 600-plus coverage snaps.
There is one thing to keep a close eye on, especially with Sneed vs Aiyuk. The Chiefs’ top cornerback was flagged for 17 penalties this season, which was five more than the next closest cornerback (Joey Porter Jr.).
Brock Purdy vs Steve Spagnulo’s defense
Anyone who tells you Brock Purdy is a game manager hasn’t watched the 49ers quarterback. While he isn’t the most pathetic quarterback in the NFL, he tested in the 90th percentile for his 10-yard dash and some of his best plays come after extending it with his legs. However, Purdy will also provide opponents with opportunities to make plays of their own.
Purdy has the 10th-highest rate of turnover-worthy throws (21) this season, with the seventh-highest rate of turnover-worthy throws (3.5 percent) in the NFL. It’s been even worse in the postseason, with the 49ers’ signal-caller having 3 dropped interceptions on just 79 dropbacks.
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| Brock Purdy stats | PFF grade | QB Rating | TD-INT | YPA | TWP% | Adj. Completion |
| vs Clean Pocket | 93.2 (4th) | 125.4 (1st) | 20-5 | 10.4 (1st) | 2.2% (21st) | 83.4% (3rd) |
| vs Pressure | 62.2 (10th) | 90.2 | 11-6 | 8.2 (3rd) | 5.4% (32nd) | 67.9% |
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Kansas City has one of the best secondaries in the NFL today. It’s especially important to consider for this matchup because Purdy hasn’t fared particularly well as a passer in the NFL playoffs. In his first two games, against far worse pass defenses, Purdy completed just 61.4 percent of his passes with a 87.7 QB rating and a 2.9 percent touchdown rate.
Kansas City Chiefs pass defense
| QB Rating | Completion Rate | Pass YPG | TD% | Sack Rate | |
| 83.6 (8th) | 61.2% (8th) | 176.5 (4th) | 3.4% (6th) | 9.3% (1st) | |
| ANY/A | EXP | Pressure Rate | Blitz Rate | Dropback EPA | |
| 4.9 (6th) | 64.35 (1st) | 27.8% (2nd) | 32.9% (7th) | -0.100 (3rd) |
If Shanahan and Purdy attempt to attack the Chiefs downfield or pepper the 49ers’ receivers heavily with targets, San Francisco will likely struggle. It’s also worth noting how Kansas City will defend the screen game. Entering Super Bowl LVIII, Pordy has the seventh-highest screen rate (11.6 percent) in the NFL, but the Chiefs allowed the sixth-lowest success rate on screens this season.
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Fans should also be paying particular attention to Spagnulo’s blitzes. In the AFC Championship Game, Kansas City’s defensive coordinator blitzed Lamar Jackson on 43.5 percent of his dropbacks, holding him to 8-for-18 and a 6.9 yards per attempt average. Outside of All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams, the 49ers’ offensive line – 22nd in PFF Pass Blocking Efficiency and 16th in pressures allowed – is not strong in pass protection.
The X-factors for this matchup along the defensive line are George Karlaftis and All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones. In the regular season, Jones tied with Aaron Donald for the highest pass-rush win rate (20 percent) among interior defensive linemen, while leading the NFL in the percentage of snaps being double-teamed (72 percent). The right side of the 49ers’ offensive line is a major weakness and if the Chiefs create early pressure from that side, Purdy and the 49ers’ passing game will be in trouble.
Isiah Pacheco vs San Francisco 49ers run defense
While Kansas City might not be quite as successful on the ground as San Francisco, Chiefs’ running back Isiah Pacheco has a massive opportunity in front of him. In his rookie season, Pacheco averaged 5.3 yards per carry and accumulated 262 scrimmage yards on 43 touches (6.1 yards per touch) in the playoffs. While he hasn’t been quite as effective on Kansas City’s road to the Super Bowl this season, there’s no doubt this matchup is ripe for a big game.
At the surface level, one might think the 49ers are adept at stopping the run at least when examining some basic stats. San Francisco allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game (89.7) in the regular season. Go beyond that, however, you’ll see problems.
The 49ers ranked allowed the ninth-highest rushing success rate (41.3 percent) to opponents during the regular season. Another way to highlight San Francisco’s issues defending the run can be highlighted with yards per carry average. After holding opponents to 4 ypc from Weeks 1-11, the 49ers have surrendered 5.6 ypc and 159 rushing ypg in the last two playoff outings.
Isiah Pacheco stats
| True Yards per Carry | Breakaway Run Rate | Yards Created per Touch | Expected Points Added | |
| 4.3 | 5.4% (11th) | 3.59 | +8.7 (11th | |
| Missed Tackles Forced | 10+ Yard Runs | 15+ Yard Runs | Yards before Contact per Attempt | |
| 46 | 27 (9th) | 13 (6th_ | 2.7 (12th) |
Pacheco is a violent runner and that is especially troublesome for a defense that has seen low-effort plays from defenders even in the NFL playoffs. While the 49ers are trying to slow down Mahomes, Pacheco’s violent running style could lead to him challenging for Super Bowl MVP if Kansas City comes out on top.
Patrick Mahomes vs Steve Wilks
There is not a single Super Bowl LVII matchup we’re more excited for than Patrick Mahomes against San Francisco’s defense. It’s especially worth watching because defensive coordinator Steve Wilks isn’t going to blitz much. San Francisco ended the regular season with the third-lowest blitz rate (18 percent) in the NFL and that’s not something you want to try often against a two-time Super Bowl MVP.
The problem for Wilks, of course, is that Mahomes is better than almost anyone at extending plays from the pocket. Among quarterbacks with 17-plus starts this season, including the playoffs, Mahomes has the third-highest average time to throw per dropback with scrambles (5.55 seconds).
San Francisco 49ers secondary
| Reception Rate | QB Rating Allowed | ||
| Charvarius Ward | 55% | 64.3 | |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 68.9% | 86.4 | |
| Isaiah Oliver | 90.2% | 104.2 | |
| Ambry Thomas | 70.8% | 99.5 |
That’s particularly concerning because outside of Charvarius Ward, the 49ers’ cornerbacks are not a strength of this defense and it’s gotten worse in the playoffs. Against the Lions and Packers, Deommodore Lenoir (101.8 QB rating allowed) and Ambry Thomas (118.8 QB rating allowed) were getting picked apart by Jordan Love and Jared Goff.
While the absence of Chiefs’ All-Pro guard Joe Thuney will make it easier for the 49ers’ defensive line to generate pressure, Kansas City might also have a different critical piece back. After watching Clyde Edwards-Helaire get blown up in pass protection, Chiefs’ running back Jerick McKinnon may play in Super Bowl LVIII. If he does, Kansas City back its last line of defense to protect Mahomes and a security blanket if pressure comes – McKinnon has 704 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns in the last 29 games – there’s a check-down option.
Considering the issues we’ve seen from the 49ers’defense late in the year, it would be a surprise if they contained Mahomes. However, both offenses have critical advantages offensively that should allow this to be a high-scoring game. The version of Mahomes we saw early in the AFC Championship Game, before Kansas City played clock control in the second half – could be on display for all four quarters in the Super Bowl.
