David Kull
The Dallas Cowboys host the Detroit Lions in an NFC Week 17 battle Saturday between two playoff-bound teams looking to improve their situations with two weeks to go in the regular season.
The Cowboys (10-5) have more to play for than the Lions (11-4), who clinched the NFC North crown last Sunday, their first division title in 29 years.
Detroit, currently the No. 2 seed in the NFC, could move to No. 1 if the San Francisco 49ers lose two more games. Dallas is coming off two straight road losses to Buffalo and Miami that have dropped it to No. 5.
And with a 3-5 road record this season, the Dallas Cowboys, who are 7-0 at home, need victories over the next two weeks to potentially minimize the number of road playoff games.
That can only happen if the Cowboys win their final two games and the Philadelphia Eagles happen to falter, putting Dallas in position to win the NFC East and lock up at least a No. 3 seed.
All eyes will be on the Detroit Lions-Dallas Cowboys game because it’s the only game being played on Saturday and because it stands alone as the best NFC game of Week 17.
Here are the four bold predictions:
CeeDee Lamb will burn the Detroit Lions’ D for two touchdowns.
If the Detroit Lions have a distinct weakness to exploit, it’s their pass defense. The Lions are 23rd in the NFL defending the pass, and are 25th in allowing touchdowns through the air.
Enter Lamb, who leads the NFL in receptions (109) and is second in receiving yards (1,424) to go with nine TDs, seven of which have come at home.
At same time, Dak Prescott has practically looked like a Hall of Fame quarterback in every game he’s played this season at AT&T Stadium. He has an astronomical 122.5 passer rating to go with a 20-2 TD-to-interception ratio, completing 74 percent of his passes and averaging 304 yards per game.
Against a Lions’ pass defense with a mediocre pass rush that allows 1.6 passing TDs per game, this is the ideal matchup for the Prescott-Lamb connection to strike twice.
Related: 2023 NFL defense rankings
Jahymir Gibbs will rush for more than 100 yards.
Like their offense, the Cowboys are significantly better as a defensive team at home than they are on the road. Dallas allows an average of only 86.6 yards rushing at home against 141.2 yards on the road, and only one running back (Buffalo’s James Cook) has rushed for more than 100 yards against them, and that came in Buffalo.
So, why would Gibbs, a rookie, exceed the 100-yard mark in this game? Because the Lions have the NFL’s No. 3 rushing attack, and late in the season, Gibbs has become a breakout player and their go-to back.
Although he shares carries with David Montgomery, Gibbs has led the Lions in rushing for four consecutive weeks. Among NFL running backs with more than 100 carries, Gibbs averages a league-best 5.7 yards per carry. And he’s especially adept at breaking tackles, leading the league in yards per attempt after contact (2.5).
So, even though Gibbs has eclipsed the 100-yard mark twice in his young career, the Lions will stay committed to the run as part of their balanced attack, allowing Gibbs an opportunity for a third 100-yard game against a Cowboys’ defense stingy against the run at home.
Related: 2023 NFL offense rankings
Micah Parsons will sack Jared Goff, but only once.
Many believe Parsons is having a season worthy of NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors. The third-year linebacker has 13 sacks, 39 pressures, 30 QB hits, 14 QB knockdowns and 15 tackles for losses to put him against the league leaders in those categories.
But the Lions’ Jared Goff, who’s less likely than most to make plays outside the pocket, is a hard quarterback to sack. He’s only been sacked 28 times in 15 games. Among QBs with at least 13 starts this season, Goff is the fifth-hardest QB to sack.
Playing at home, however, Parsons should find his way to Goff at least one time.
Related: 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds
Jared Goff will rally the Detroit Lions in the fourth quarter.
The Cowboys have scored nearly 40 points per game at AT&T Stadium, with an average of winning margin of 24.4 points over their seven opponents.
It’s likely Dallas will come out strong and take an early lead of 10 points or more in the first half. The only problem is, the Lions aren’t like every other team they’ve played at home. In fact, given how dysfunctional the Eagles have been in December, Detroit is the Cowboys’ biggest challenge to their perfect home record.
Behind Goff, who’s been consistently good all season, the Lions will methodically chip away at the Cowboys’ lead and make the home crowd sweat out a potential Detroit comeback, with Goff getting the ball to receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta in the final minutes of the game.
In the end, however, the Cowboys will thwart the Lions’ rally and preserve their perfection at home.
- PREDICTION: Dallas Cowboys 31, Detroit Lions 28
