NFL DraftKings Week 12 picks: Top value plays and most overrated, including Trevor Lawrence

By Rachel Wold

·Updated: October 14, 2024

Corey Perrine / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL Week 12 is already here and it’s time to get those DraftKings lineups in place. So, let’s take a look at some NFL DraftKings value plays as well as some overrated picks that are not worth your time this week.

Will an NFC East rookie QB keep his hot streak going in Week 12? Can we expect a veteran RB stud who has been stuck in the mud to have a bounce-back week? Meanwhile, an under-the-radar rookie wide receiver, priced very affordably in DraftKings, has an excellent fantasy matchup.

From these value picks to a pricey DraftKings quarterback who has been an overall disappointment, to a top-salary RB facing a highly-rated run defense, you might be surprised about our best DraftKings Week 12 picks and some players slated to come up short.

DraftKings Week 12 picks: Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,400

As the sixth-highest priced in DraftKings for Week 12, Lawrence sports plenty of value playing the Texans. Over their last three games, the Texans have ceded 826 passing yards and five passing TDs. Lawrence is primed after coming from his best fantasy performance of the season (279 total yards and four TDs).

Tommy DeVito, New York Giants, $5,200

DeVito is a sleeper DFS play for Week 12 at this cheap salary. He last surprised with a big fantasy performance consisting of 246 yards and three TDs. Playing the Patriots, who are a mess across the board, DeVito and the Giants’ offense could gain an upper hand just like they did against Washington last week.

Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts, $5,100

Priced dirt-cheap, Minshew is a super DraftKings value play at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With the Bucs currently giving up the third-most QB fantasy points, Minshew could be money in your pocket.

DraftKings Week 12 picks: Running Backs

D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles, $6,800

Priced $1,600 less than the top RB in DraftKings, Swift (who recorded 103 total yards in his last game) is a smart play at home against Buffalo. The Bills have yielded 24.5 DraftKings fantasy points and 134.7 combined yards per game to opposing running backs.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans, $6,400

Henry should shed his fantasy funk and rebound at home playing the Panthers. The Panthers are giving away the second-most DraftKings fantasy points per game, including a league-leading 17 RB touchdowns. At this price, Henry’s ceiling to reward is very high. Let’s hope he gets the memo.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals, $6,300

With Joe Burrow out of the picture, Mixon will be leaned upon more than ever, as was the case in his last showdown. This makes Mixon a value play in a home clash against Pittsburgh. The Steelers are allowing 23.4 DraftKings fantasy points per game. Mixon should cook.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $6,100

Playing an Indianapolis Colts defense that is giving away the fourth-most RB fantasy points, Rachaad White is a smart DraftKings value play for Week 12. White has been consistently productive over his last four games, and a matchup with a soft ground defense means fantasy points in your pocket.

Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns, $5,600

The Browns head to Denver to offer Jerome Ford a fantastic fantasy matchup in Week 12. An extreme value play for DraftKings, Ford will face the NFL’s defense ceding the most RB fantasy points. This includes Denver allowing 182.1 running back yards per contest.

DraftKings Week 12 picks: Wide Receivers

Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams, $7,600

Nacua has a chance to start re-earning those big fantasy points and that will be against the Cardinals in Week 12. The Cardinals have yielded 37.5 DraftKings WR fantasy points per game, making him a sweet value play priced at $2,400 less A.J. Brown.

Tank Dell, Houston Texans, $6,900

Until he’s not, Tank Dell remains a value play in DraftKings as the 10th-highest-priced WR for Week 12. Dell faces a Jags defense he sliced and diced for 145 yards and a TD back in Week 3.

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts, $4,800

Downs is a sleeper DFS play coming from two weeks off to face the Bucs in Week 12. He’s had plenty of time to heal from a knee injury. So, the upside he boasts against the Bucs, giving up the fourth-most WR fantasy points shouldn’t be ignored.

Demario Douglas, New England Patriots, $4,400

Despite the Patriots’ struggles on offense, Douglas has produced consistently over his last four games (218 yards coming from 20 catches). At this cheap DraftKings salary, Douglas makes for a flex value play facing the Giants, who are giving 186.8 WR yards per game.

Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills, $3,600

Coming in extremely cheap, start Shakir in Week 12 DFS lineups for practically free. Over Shakir’s last four games, he has scored 51.8 DraftKings fantasy points compared to Stefon Diggs’ 51.7. Shakir has a cake matchup against the Eagles — the weakest team in defending fantasy wide receivers.

DraftKings Week 12 picks: Tight Ends

Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints, $5,000

With the exception of his last game, Hill has been highly productive on the field. So, let’s hope the fantasy points will be plentiful against the Falcons in Week 12. The Falcons have yielded 14.8 DraftKings fantasy points per game. At this price, Hill, with his voodoo football skills, boasts plenty of upside.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns, $4,100

Even more of a value play in DraftKings for Week 12 is Njoku. Njoku has scored in two of his last four games and faces a Broncos defense giving away like free candy, the most DraftKings TE fantasy points. Starting Njoku at this price could be a steal!

DraftKings overrated plays Week 12

Quarterbacks:

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, $8,200

After scoring a dismal total of 43.3 DraftKings fantasy points over his last three contests, Mahomes is overrated as the second-most expensive QB on the Week 12 slate. The Chiefs head to Vegas, whose defense has given up the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. Until the Chiefs offense perks up, Mahomes makes a risky start.

Running Backs:

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints, $8,400

Priced as the top RB in DraftKings in Week 12, Kamara is overrated. He’s facing a Falcons defense that has been stingy in allowing the second-fewest RB fantasy points. It’s given up only three receiving TDs and zero rushing TDs all year. This is a sketchy matchup for Kamara.

Wide Receivers:

JaMarr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals, $8,300

Without Joe Burrow, Chase last managed only two catches for 12 yards and a last-minute TD. At his inflated DraftKings salary, he’s a risky play even against the Steelers on Sunday. Pittsburgh has allowed only nine WR touchdowns all year, and its defense will be all over Chase if Tee Higgins is out again.

Tight Ends:

Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans $5,400

With the emergence of Tank Dell, Schultz has only been targeted nine times over his last two games. With Schultz being the second-highest priced TE in Week 12, there is more value to be had with cheaper options like David Njoku, mentioned above. The Texans play a Jags’ defense that has given up only three TE scores.