The 2025 NASCAR regular season has drawn to a close, leaving us with a 16-driver field in a three-round battle that will all culminate in the NASCAR Cup Series championship on Sunday, Nov. 2 at Phoenix. With the field of drivers set, it’s time for NASCAR Playoff Predictions.
Let’s dive into our NASCAR predictions for the 2025 Cup Series NASCAR Playoffs.
Round of 16 at Darlington: Cook Out Southern 500
Tied with Kyle Larson in playoff points, William Byron can basically sleepwalk his way to the Round of 12. However, the No. 24 car is coming off a relatively disappointing showing at Daytona due to a penalty. He has also been a bit overlooked early on in Championship 4 predictions. That will change on Sunday night in the Cook Out Southern 500. Byron has the highest average finishing position (9.1), the second-most top-5s (three), the most top-10s (five), and the second-most laps led (328) in the Next Gen era over seven races at Darlington. He is expected to deliver again in South Carolina, coming through with a win that would automatically advance him to the Round of 12.
- Race Winner: William Byron
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Round of 16 at Gateway: Enjoy Illinois 300
Entering the Round of 16, Joey Logano is on the bubble with the 12th spot (+1) just ahead of Josh Berry, Tyler Reddick and Austin Dillon. He’ll likely put himself in a more secure position with a top-10 performance at Darlington to begin the playoffs, but it’s worth noting he’s finished outside the top 10 in four of seven races there in the Next Gen era. No matter, he’ll punch his ticket to the Round of 12 thanks to a trip to one of his favorite tracks. Team Penske thrives at Gateway, where Logano has the highest average finishing position (3.0) in the last three races. That mastery continues on Sunday, Sept. 7, as the No. 22 makes it to Victory Lane at World Wide Technology Raceway.
- Race Winner: Joey Logano
Related: NASCAR Playoff Standings
Round of 16 at Bristol: Bass Pro Shops Night Race
In the final race for the Round of 16, a majority of the spots to advance will already be locked up. Logano, Byron, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, and Austin Cindric will be safe. With just enough of a points cushion, Shane van Gisbergen will play things safe to narrowly make it in by avoiding disaster at Bristol. Bubba Wallace will put himself on the brink of getting knocked out at one of his worst tracks (25.7 average finishing position), but he’ll advance as well. The final spot comes down to Ross Chastain and Tyler Reddick. At a track where Chastain has historically fared better than Reddick, his success there and a wreck will narrowly push the No. 1 into the next round.
- Drivers Eliminated from NASCAR Playoffs: Tyler Reddick, Austin Dillon, Josh Berry, Alex Bowman
- Advancing: Joey Logano, William Byron, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric, Bubba Wallace, Shane van Gisbergen, Ross Chastain
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Round of 12 at New Hampshire
For the first time since March 9, Christopher Bell is going to win a race. The No. 20 car hasn’t exactly had the greatest summer, but advancing to the Round of 12 means racing at his favorite track. Bell is the only Cup driver with multiple wins at New Hampshire in the Next Gen era. It will also be a strong showing for Joe Gibbs Racing, with Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe finishing in the top six. With the victory, Bell punches his ticket to the Round of 8.
- Winner: Christopher Bell
Related: NASCAR Power Rankings, Evaluating all 16 Drivers before the NASCAR Playoffs
Round of 12 at Kansas: Hollywood Casino 400
There aren’t a ton of tracks on the NASCAR playoff slate that give Hendrick Motorsports a real advantage. Kansas is one of them. Kyle Larson (6.3 avg. finishing position), Alex Bowman (6.8), Chase Elliott (11.4) and William Byron (12.7) are in the top 10 for best average finishers at Kansas Speedway. Larson will secure his ticket to the Round of 8, based on points, with a top-3 showing. However, it will be Alex Bowman who comes through with the win. Unfortunately, it’ll come just two weeks after he was knocked out of the playoffs.
- Winner: Alex Bowman
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Round of 12 at Charlotte ROVAL: Bank of America ROVAL 400/
Shane van Gisbergen will be in must-win territory if he wants to advance to the third round of the NASCAR Playoffs. Fortunately for the Cup Rookie of the Year, he gets to race at the Charlotte Roval. We’ve learned this season not to pick against the driver who has won four consecutive road-course races. SVG delivers in the win-and-advance scenario. While SVG makes it through, the championship dreams come to an end for Chase Elliott, Bubba Wallace, Austin Cindric, and Ross Chastain.
- Drivers Eliminated from NASCAR Playoffs: Chase Elliott, Bubba Wallace, Austin Cindric and Ross Chastain
- Advancing: Kyle Larson, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Shane van Gisbergen, Chase Briscoe and Joey Logano
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Round of 8 at Las Vegas: South Point 400
Picking Ryan Blaney to win at Las Vegas certainly goes against his history at the track. In seven career races with the Next Gen car at Las Vegas, Blaney ranks 31st (21.9) in average finishing position with just two top-10 finishes. However, it’s worth remembering what happened earlier this year. After a crash during practice, Blaney started the race from the back of the field. The No. 12 made it up to sixth at the end of Stage 2, and he was seventh midway through the final stage before getting taken out in a wreck. A year prior, he finished third in the spring race at Las Vegas. Blaney will avenge his demons in his return, delivering a win that clinches a spot in the Championship 4.
- Winner: Ryan Blaney
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Round of 8 at Talladega: YellaWood 500
On Sunday, Oct. 19, Kyle Larson will become the second driver to win his way into the Championship 4. The No. 5 isn’t coming off the greatest regular season by his standards, but there can be a bit of a Patrick Mahomes-like improvement come playoff time. While Larson has never won at Talladega in the Cup Series, he’s finished in the top five three times in the last seven races. With Blaney preparing for Phoenix, Larson beats out Joey Logano and William Byron to clinch that Championship 4 spot.
- Winner: Kyle Larson
Related: NASCAR Playoff Schedule
Round of 8 at Martinsville: Xfinity 500
Team Penske was elated with the playoff venues NASCAR picked for this season. It gives them a better chance than any team of sending two drivers to the Championship 4. Blaney would be in a spot to win this race, but Penske will be pouring everything it has into helping Logano advance. They’ll do it again. Logano securing a win at Martinsville means there is just one points spot left for Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, William Byron and Chase Briscoe. It’s going to be Briscoe, the driver who outraced them all this summer, turning his consistent finishes throughout the Round of 8 into a championship berth.
- Drivers Eliminated from NASCAR Playoffs: Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Shane van Gisbergen, William Byron
- Championship 4: Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe
Read More: 2026 NASCAR Schedule
NASCAR Championship at Phoenix
The good news for NASCAR fans is that this year will be the last time a one-race championship is held at Phoenix Raceway. Unfortunately for Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe, the weeks of preparation Blaney got to do for Phoenix pay off, just as they did last year for Joey Logano. It’s going to come down to a Team Penske battle, but Blaney wins it at the finish. Penske wins its fourth consecutive NASCAR championship, with Logano and Blaney splitting them two apiece.
- 2025 NASCAR Champion: Ryan Blaney
