The Round of 16 in the NASCAR Playoffs for the Cup Series concludes tonight at Bristol Motor Speedway, with four of the 16 playoff drivers being eliminated tonight in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. Ahead of the green flag waving, we’re examining the NASCAR playoff clinching scenarios for each driver for the Round of 12.
Ahead of Saturday night’s race at Bristol Motor Speedway, here are the NASCAR playoff-clinching scenarios for each driver to advance to the Round of 12. We’ve provided playoff-clinching scenarios both if someone above the cutline or outside the NASCAR playoffs wins and if there is a winner from below the cutline.
Chase Briscoe – Clinched
Chase Briscoe already clinched his spot in the Round of 12 by winning the first race of the NASCAR Playoffs at Darlington Raceway. He also finished second last week at Kansas Speedway, adding 1 point to his playoff total with a stage victory. It’s particularly good news for Briscoe that he already clinched a playoff spot, given he is starting 31st tonight at Bristol.
Related: NASCAR Playoff Schedule 2025
Denny Hamlin – Clinched
As with Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin clinched his spot in the Round of 12 with a victory. The No. 11 won at Darlington in the playoff opener, ensuring he’ll be advancing to the second round. Hamlin also sits atop the playoff points leaderboard that will carry over into the next round, so he can focus on racing for his 60th career win tonight.
Related: NASCAR Starting Lineup for Bristol
Kyle Larson – Clinched / 8 Points
It would take a disastrous night at Bristol Motor Speedway and a specific winner for Kyle Larson to be eliminated tonight. If a non-playoff driver wins, or if any of the playoff drivers above the cutline win the Bass Pro Shops Night Race, Larson automatically advances on points (+60). In the event that one of the drivers below the playoff cutline wins—Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman, or Josh Berry—then Larson would need just 8 points tonight to advance to the Round of 12.
Bubba Wallace – 7 Points / 18 Points
One of the hottest drivers in the NASCAR Playoffs right now, entering with consecutive top-8 finishes, Bubba Wallace just needs to avoid an early exit. If someone outside the Playoffs or above the cutline wins tonight at Bristol, Wallace would need only 7 points to clinch his spot in the Round of 12. If one of the following drivers wins—Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman, or Josh Berry—then Wallace would need 18 points. In that case, earning stage points in both Stage 1 and Stage 2 would allow him to finish outside the top 20 and still advance.
Ryan Blaney – 15 Points / 26 Points
The first priority for Ryan Blaney and Team Penske tonight will be stage points. Starting second at Bristol, finishing well in Stage 1 and breaking into the top 10 in Stage 2 would go a long way toward locking up a spot in the next round. In the first scenario, if a non-playoff driver or repeat winner takes the victory, he needs just 15 points to move on. If any of Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman, or Josh Berry win tonight, then Blaney would need 26 points to advance to the Round of 12.
Related: NASCAR Xfinity Results from Bristol, Food City 300 Points, Xfinity Playoff Standings
William Byron – 18 Points / 29 Points
As long as one of the aforementioned drivers—Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman, or Josh Berry—does not win the Bass Pro Shops Night Race tonight, William Byron (18 points above the cutline) just needs a top-20 finish to advance to the second round. If one of those four drivers is victorious, then Byron will either need stage points in addition to a top-20 finish, or a top-8 finish, to reach the Round of 12.
Tyler Reddick – 19 Points / 31 Points
Tyler Reddick entered the NASCAR playoffs below the cutline for the Round of 12 and then catapulted himself up with 53 points and a second-place finish at Darlington. However, some issues at Gateway last weekend put him on a bit of shaky ground if one of these four drivers-Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman, or Josh Berry-win tonight. In that scenario, Reddick would need 31 points to advance, which would mean finishing well in stages and ending in the top 20 or placing in the top six. If none of those four drivers win, 19 points can be accrued much easier and Reddick would advance, barring a disaster.
NASCAR Truck Results from Bristol, Truck Series Playoff Standings
Christopher Bell – 25 Points / 36 Points
Of the three Joe Gibbs Racing drivers in the NASCAR Playoffs, Christopher Bell is the only one who will have to race for points tonight at Bristol Motor Speedway. If a non-playoff driver wins, Bell would need 25 points—equivalent to about a 12th-place finish or a combination of stage points and a top-20 finish—to reach the Round of 12. In the event one of the aforementioned drivers wins, then Bell (36 points above the cutline) will need a strong finish, along with stage points tonight.
Chase Elliott – 29 Points / 40 Points
Chase Elliott comes into the race tonight with a 28-point advantage above the Round of 12 cutline. So, as long as one of the drivers below the cutline does not win, 29 points is a reachable goal for the No. 9 team tonight. It will make the team a bit more nervous, though, since it would require top-10 finishes in both stages as well as a solid finish. If one of the four drivers wins, then it is going to take a huge night (40 points) for Elliott to reach the Round of 12. Notably, he has scored 40 or more points in a race only twice since Atlanta.
Joey Logano – 36 Points / 47 Points
With Joey Logano starting 22nd tonight, Team Penske will be hoping that one of the four drivers below the cutline is not victorious. If that happens, the reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion would need 47 points to advance to the Round of 12. For context, Logano has not earned more than 43 points in a race this year. If none of those four drivers wins, Logano would need 36 points. So, expect the No. 22 team to make stage points a priority early in the race tonight.
Ross Chastain – 38 Points / 49 Points
Even if one of the following four drivers does not win—Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman, or Josh Berry—Ross Chastain needs 38 points to clinch a playoff spot tonight. He reached that point total at both Daytona and Darlington, but consistency has been an issue for the No. 1 team. If one of those four drivers is victorious, Chastain would still need 38 points to remain above the cutline.
Austin Cindric – 46 Points
If a top-10 driver wins tonight at Bristol Motor Speedway, Austin Cindric needs 46 points or for all four drivers below him to finish worse than he does in order to advance. However, if one of Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman, or Josh Berry wins the Bass Pro Shops Night Race, then Cindric’s Round of 12 hopes will be out of his control and he will be dependent on those he is competing with finishing poorly.
Austin Dillon & Shane van Gisbergen – Win or Need Help
Austin Dillon (23rd) and Shane van Gisbergen (28th) are both starting from the back half of the field tonight at Bristol Motor Speedway. Dillon (-11) and van Gisbergen (-15) are also double-digit points below the cutline. Barring a win from either driver, both will need Austin Cindric to have a bad night in order to have any shot at advancing to the next round of the NASCAR playoffs.
Alex Bowman & Josh Berry – Must Win
Alex Bowman (35 points below the cutline) and Josh Berry (45 points below the cutline) are effectively in must-win scenarios. Bowman could theoretically advance if he earns significant stage points with a top-five finish and Austin Cindric has an early exit, but that outcome is extremely unlikely. Berry can only advance to the Round of 12 with a win tonight.
