Predicting landing spots for 10 best MLB free agents at start of winter meetings

Roki Sasaki to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a while, there were even reports back in the spring that a majority of MLB teams expected the Japanese pitcher to sign with Los Angeles. After officially being posted at the start of the MLB Winter Meetings, the Dodgers’ window to sign Sasaki is now open. Just 23 years old, the Dodgers’ pitching depth will allow the club to ease Sasaki into action after an injury-plagued 2024 season. He would also join a pitching staff with fellow countrymen Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, with Los Angeles offering marketing opportunities that can far exceed anything Sasaki will make on a contract restricted by international free-agency rules for players under 25. This has always felt inevitable and Sasaki will presumably sign with the Dodgers in January.

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MLB rumors have made it pretty clear that the Boston Red Sox are committed to spending this winter. They were one of the finalists for Juan Soto, but their offer just fell short. Alex Bregman is the natural second option. The two-time All-Star and World Series champion can provide Gold Glove-caliber defense at third base, allowing Boston to move Rafael Devers to first base. It makes the Red Sox lineup better and significantly improves the defense. Signing Bregman also won’t necessarily prevent Boston from adding one of the top arms in MLB free agency.

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With the Los Angeles Dodgers signing Blake Snell and the Boston Red Sox projected to sign Alex Bregman, that essentially leaves the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees for Corbin Burnes. However, New York also is eyeing Max Fried. That could open the door for the Orioles to re-sign Burnes, something that seemed unlikely just a few weeks ago. It would be the only real ‘splash’ the Orioles make in MLB free agency, but retaining Burnes gives Baltimore its ace back and it can feel better about trading top prospects for him last offseason.

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The New York Yankees are a popular landing spot for All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso and a return to the New York Mets remains possible. With that said, the Toronto Blue Jays have been trying to make a big move for two offseasons in a row. They struck out on both Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, which could put pressure on the front office to finally deliver. Bringing Alonso to Toronto adds a premium bat to put alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and with the Blue Jays keeping Bo Bichette, there would at least be hope for Toronto to rebound as a Wild Card contender in 2025.

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It seems to be a two-team race for Max Fried between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. While our MLB free agency predictions have Bregman heading to Fenway Park, we don’t think that will be the last move Boston makes. After all, the Red Sox payroll has been slashed for years and even now is projected by FanGraphs to be 14th in MLB. Boston has the financial flexibility to sign both Fried (31 in January) and Bregman. With both moves, the Red Sox are back as contenders and the AL East is by far the best division in best baseball.

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The Yankees obviously have to fill several voids in their lineup, both replacing Soto and first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Teoscar Hernandez is the best outfielder available and New York saw wht he can do in the postseason (3 home runs, 12 RBI, .417 SLG). The All-Star outfielder was beloved in the Dodgers’ clubhouse, so he should also fit in nicely with the Yankees’ culture. He might not repliace Soto’s production, but New York could still get 30-plus home runs and 90-plus RBI for a fraction of what Soto would’ve cost.

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The Seattle Mariners are among the teams in baseball dealing with financial uncertainty right now. Thanks to the collapse of many regional sports networks, a major source of revenue is gone. That’s why someone like Pete Alonso, who is seeking a $200 million contract never really made sense for Seattle. That’s just fine, Chrisitan Walker is the better option. He provides Gold Glove defense at first base and his OPS, wRC+, OBP and home run totals are right in line with or better than Alonso’s production over the last two seasons. Seattle lands the better first baseman and it doesn’t even have to crack the $120 million mark to land him.

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After pitching like an ace in the first half of the season for the Detroit TIgers, Jack Flaherty regressed after the trade to Los Angeles. He posted a 3.58 ERA and 1.29 WHIP across 55.1 innings pitched and then struggled (7.36 ERA and 1.50 WHIP) in the postseason. He also comes with durability concerns, which nixed a summer trade to the Yankees. All of these factors decreased his market and asking price, opening the door for a team like the San Diego Padres to land him. Flaherty gets to stay in California and provide San Diego with a potential front-line pitcher to take the place of Joe Musgrove in 2025.

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The San Francisco Giants already landed one of the best MLB free agents, giving out the largest contract in franchise history to Willy Adames. That’s not enough to address a Giants lineup that ranked 18th in home runs (177) and 19th in OPS (.701). Anthony Santander provides San Francisco with a switch-hitting power bat who can deliver 25-35 home runs every year and he owns a .788 OPS since 2020. Adding him creates a new-look Giants lineup with Adames, Santander, Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Tyler Fitzgerald and Heliot Ramos. Run production won’t be an issue like it used to be.

We originally had Tanner Scott landing with the Philadelphia Phillies in our MLB free agency predictions, but they just landed Jordan Romano. Potential landing spots for Scott include the Yankees and Dodgers, but we’ve got our eye on the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks bullpen finished last season with the sixth-lowest ERA (4.41) and the fifth-lowest strikeout rate (21.1 percent) in MLB. Scotti gives Arizona an electric left-handed reliever, who can close, who holds a 2.04 ERA, 31.3 percent strikeout rate and a .183 batting average allowed over the past two seasons.

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