From MLB unicorns, to 40/40 chases, and Luis Arraez attempting to do something we haven’t seen since the last time Cleveland won a World Series title, the first half of the 2023 season has provided plenty of intrigue.
The New York Mets are bad. The Miami Marlins are good? The New York Yankees kind of just are. It’s important to take stock at the midway point in the season to reflect upon where we stand right now, 81 games into the MLB season, because there is so much baseball left to be played.
We’ve only seen half of the story.
NL, AL MVP Races
It’ll be nearly impossible for anyone but Shohei Ohtani to win the American League MVP because his skill set is so special and so prolific. As a batter, he ranks second in fWAR (3.4) to Wander Franco of the Tampa Bay Rays. Franco has accumulated 3.5 fWAR, so he’s not running away by any means. Ohtani is also batting .304 with a .386 on-base percentage (OBP) and has a 171 wRC+ (100 being league average). He’s the best hitter in MLB according to wRC+, and he has clocked 28 homers, which also leads baseball. You can make the argument that he’s the frontrunner for AL MVP as just a hitter. But he also pitches.
On the mound he has a 3.02 ERA (9th in the AL) and has racked up an additional 1.6 wins above replacement, good for 16th in the American League. Nobody is doing what he’s doing, and only a handful of players come close on either side of the ball. It took Aaron Judge breaking the AL home run record last season to earn him MVP honors, and nobody is approaching the history books this season. It’s Ohtani’s award to lose.
In the National League there are some interesting names to consider, but Ronald Acuña Jr. is having an outstanding season. The Atlanta slugger has 19 homers, 35 stolen bases, and is batting .330 with a .404 OBP. He ranks second in wRC+ behind Luis Arraez (161 to 160), but Acuña leads the WAR battle 4.0 to 2.7. Juan Soto of the San Diego Padres is right behind Acuña at the plate with a 156 wRC+, and Arizona Diamondbacks’ rookie Corbin Carroll is within shouting distance in WAR with 3.5.
The most talked about competitor for the MVP title however is Arraez from the Miami Marlins because he’s flirting with hitting .400 this season — a feat that hasn’t been touched since 1948 when Artie Wilson of the Birmingham Black Barons hit .433. Ted Williams hit .406 for the Boston Red Sox in 1941. Heck, the last time a player hit over .350 in a full season (D.J. LeMahieu hit .364 in COVID-shortened 2020) was back in 2010 when Josh Hamilton hit .359.
Hitting .400 is a major milestone, like when Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown in 2012 and earned AL MVP honors. Right now, the answer is Acuña for his all-around game, but there will be a heated debate on the matter if Arraez continues hitting like he has through the first half.
If Acuña keeps hitting bombs he could finish as the fifth-ever member of the 40/40 club. He’ll be the first to do so since Alfonso Soriano in 2006. The NL MVP debate could get extremely exciting, pitting a .400 season against a 40/40 year.
NL, AL Cy Young
The Cy Young is wide open in both leagues, and a case can be made for any number of pitchers in either league. Your preference will likely depend on which stats you look at and which MLB team you root for.
In the American League, Toronto’s Kevin Gausman leads the way in fWAR (3.1), but Houston’s Framber Valdez holds a steady lead in ERA with his 2.27 compared to Gausman’s 3.10. If you look a little deeper into the numbers and consider their FIP (fielding independent pitching), the two hurlers are nearly dead-even with Gausman just ahead, 2.70 to 2.71. Minnesota right-hander Joe Ryan had been right there with them, but he just gave up six runs on five homers in three innings against the Braves on Tuesday night, bumping his ERA on the year up nearly a half-run to 3.44.
Shane McClanahan leads the AL in wins with 11, and also holds a 2.23 ERA (3.64 FIP) with 1.7 fWAR. One last name that could be in the running, especially if the Texas Rangers keep on leading the AL West, is Nathan Eovaldi. The 33-year-old is 9-3 with a 2.82 ERA (3.08 FIP) and 2.6 wins above replacement. This race is really close at the midway point, but with the somewhat surprising season the Rangers are having, and the month of May that Eovaldi put up (37 2/3 innings, 0.96 ERA, 0.85 WHIP), he is the midseason AL Cy Young winner.
In the National League, there are six pitchers with a sub-3.00 ERA, and just three with a sub-3.00 FIP. Two players are on both lists. The first is Cubs lefty Justin Steele, who holds a 2.62 ERA and a 2.82 FIP. Steele and rotation mate Marcus Stroman are part of the reason that despite the team’s 37-40 record, they’re the only team in the NL Central to have a positive run differential.
The other player on both lists in Diamondbacks’ starter Zac Gallen, whose 2.58 FIP is actually better than his 2.84 ERA, meaning he’s pitching better than the stats show. Between Gallen and Steele, Arizona’s starter has the better strikeout numbers, the better walk rate, and leads the WAR race by a hefty 1.2 wins. Zach Wheeler is actually second to Gallen’s 3.4 WAR with a 3.2 of his own, but his ERA is nearly a full run higher, and while his 2.76 FIP ranks second in the NL, it’s still behind the Diamondbacks’ ace. Gallen is the NL Cy Young winner at the midway point.
Best Rookie in NL, AL
The American League frontrunner for Rookie of the Year heading into the season was Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles. He has really turned it on in the month of June batting .343 with a .371 OBP and six home runs. Henderson may end up with the award at the end of the season, but as of right now there are other deserving players with better first-half stats.
One such player is Luke Raley of Tampa Bay, who leads all AL rookies in wRC+ by a wide margin at 158. The next-closest player to him is Oakland’s Ryan Noda at 136. Noda may end up being the A’s All Star representative, but Raley and his 2.3 WAR beat him in this battle.
Josh Jung of the Rangers leads AL rookies with 15 homers and is second to Raley in WAR with 1.9. Jung has the better walk rate, and the better strikeout rate at 27.7%, with Raley holding a slight edge in batting average and on-base percentage. The nod here goes to Raley in a tight one, thanks to a 37 point edge in wRC+.
On the pitching side, Hunter Brown of the Houston Astros is in the mix with 1.8 WAR, and a 3.62 ERA, and Yennier Cano of the Orioles has a strong case with a 0.95 ERA in 32 relief appearances, but Raley still feels like the right answer for the time being.
In the National League it’s Arizona’s Corbin Carroll. There’s really no need to debate this one. He leads NL rookies in WAR with 3.5 with the next-closest to him being Matt McLain of the Reds at 1.6. Carroll leads all rookies with 16 homers, he’s second to Raley in wRC+ with a 147, his 23 steals are second to only Oakland’s Esteury Ruiz (40), and he’s a big reason why his team is atop the competitive NL West.
There is a chance that Eury Pérez or Elly De La Cruz can make a compelling argument in their favor by season’s end, but Carroll has been everything the Diamondbacks were hoping he’d be, and a little more.
Best MLB Moment
The “reverse boycott” in Oakland was a special moment in MLB history. Sure, the A’s haven’t been great on the field this season, even flirting with Cleveland Spiders territory as the worst team of all time there for awhile, but with them checking boxes for a potential relocation to Las Vegas, the fans showed up, and they showed up with a message for their owner and the league. That message being that there are fans in Oakland that want to come out to the ballpark and root for the green and gold, but that they’re tired of A’s owner John Fisher not investing in this team.
The nearly 28,000 in announced attendance all came away with the feeling that June 13th was a pretty special night, and if that was the last time that the Oakland Coliseum would be packed like that for a MLB game, what a way to go out.
The entire event was organized by A’s fans on social media, and was actually put together just a few days before the team announced that they were pivoting their attention to Las Vegas. The date was selected because Tuesday nights typically didn’t sell very well, and the visiting Tampa Bay Rays aren’t a huge draw in the Bay Area. Fans fundraised their own giveaway, raising enough to hand out 7,000 kelly green shirts that held their message: “SELL.” The now iconic shirts are going to be displayed in the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.
One moment stood out among the rest on this night of celebrating baseball in Oakland, and it was in the top of the fifth inning. Fans had distributed cheer cards before the game with specific instructions on what to chant and when to use those chants. For the top of the fifth the instruction was to hold a silent protest to celebrate 55 years in Oakland. After Jose Siri roped a double down the left field line, the crowd came back to life chanting “Sell the team! Sell the team!” It was so loud that A’s pitcher Hogan Harris thought his Pitchcom was broken. A’s reliever Trevor May said after the game that the crowd that night was comparable to ones he’s played in front of in both New York parks.
Surprise Teams (Good)
Yes, the Texas Rangers have been good, but they’ve spent a decent amount on free agency the last two winters, so them being as good as they are may be surprising as they sit atop the AL West at 48-31, but them being good overall isn’t terribly shocking. There are a lot of surprising teams this MLB season, but we’re going to focus on a couple in the National League that have really stood out.
At the time of this writing, the Cincinnati Reds are atop the NL Central with a 42-38 record and are 16-9 in the month of June. Top prospect Elly De La Cruz, 21, was called up to the MLB roster on June 6, and the team has gone 15-5 since his arrival. The Reds are second in runs scored this month with 135 in 25 games, good for 5.4 runs per game. The NL Central is wide open this season, and the Reds may be able to slug their way to a MLB postseason berth, though Milwaukee (0.5 back) and Chicago (3.5 back) are right behind them.
The Miami Marlins, in a competitive NL East, find themselves 12 games over .500 at 46-34, second behind the Atlanta Braves, and in possession of the top NL wild-card spot. Outside of the shortened 2020 MLB season, the last time the Marlins were in the postseason was when they ended the year hoisting the World Series trophy in 2003.
Off-season trade acquisition Luis Arraez is an MVP candidate. Jorge Soler is providing thump with 21 home runs. One of the most exciting players in the game, Jazz Chisholm, had been out of the lineup since the middle of May before returning Tuesday night, going 3-for-4 with three RBI. Reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has a 5.08 ERA. This team has room to improve, and they also have the best offense Miami has seen since the 2017 squad that still had Giancarlo Stanton, J.T. Realmuto, Marcel Ozuna, and Christian Yelich. This team is not only surprising, they may be dangerous.
Surprise Teams (Bad)
This should come as no surprise, but the two most disappointing MLB teams of the first half have been the New York Mets and the San Diego Padres. The teams rank first and second in payroll this season, and yet both teams are below .500 and in fourth place in their respective divisions.
The Mets rank third in age among their batters, and have the oldest pitching staff in MLB. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander have been roughly league average. Starling Marte has been 14% below league average with an 86 wRC+. That’s 50 points lower than his output a year ago. For the Mets to turn things around, they’re going to need these three players, and likely a couple others, to turn it on pretty quickly. At 36-43, they currently sit 8.5 games back of the third wild-card spot.
For the Padres, they’re a game closer to a wild card spot with a 37-42 record and have a positive run differential (+26). They won series against Cleveland and Tampa Bay this month, but then dropped three of four to the San Francisco Giants, and two of three to the Washington Nationals. They also dropped Tuesday night’s game to the reeling Pittsburgh Pirates.
Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. are having incredible seasons, but they’re almost a two-man show offensively. Manny Machado has turned things around offensively in June, but he still holds a 90 wRC+, 10% below league average on the season. As a team, the Padres rank fifth in ERA at 3.70 but they also rank 21st in runs scored with 335.
If any two teams can go on a run in the second half, it’s the Mets and Padres, but the question now is whether they’ve dug too big of a hole for themselves.
Watch Out For This Team in the Second Half
There has been a lot of talk this year about Shohei Ohtani’s impending free agency this winter, and where he could end up. There has even been talk about what kind of a package it could take for the Angels to move Ohtani at the MLB trade deadine.
Just reading the tea leaves, there is no way Ohtani gets traded. If there is a glimmer of a hope that they can re-sign him this winter, the Angels aren’t moving him. One way to entice Ohtani to stay could be to make the playoffs in the final year of his contract and potentially make a deep run.
We’ve already seen the Angels call up 2022 first-round draftee and top 100 prospect Zach Neto and make a trade for Eduardo Escobar, two moves that show the team isn’t messing around this season. They’re going for it. They know they have one season left to convince Ohtani to re-up, and the Angels are going to make the most of it.
At 44-37, the Angels are five games behind the Rangers in the AL West, and a game ahead of the Houston Astros in the division. They also currently hold the third AL wild-card spot by a slim margin. This is the first time in nearly a decade that the Angels are more than a couple of games over .500 at this late into June. When they won the West in 2014, they were ten games over at this point. That is the only season Mike Trout has made the playoffs.
This team could be ready to make a splash or two at the trade deadline, but it won’t be as a seller. The White Sox and Mets could offer some interesting rental pieces in a month’s time, and provide some big-time reinforcements for an Angels team that is trying to prove to the best player in baseball that they’re serious about winning, and serious about keeping him long term.