Who will win the NBA Finals? The stage is set for the final showdown of the 2024 season with the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics squaring off in the NBA Finals 2024. It will be a legacy-defining series for some of the best NBA players, making this matchup even more exciting.
From Boston’s side of things, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are back in the NBA Finals for the second time. While their reputations are at stake in this series, there’s even more on the line for a Celtics organization that hasn’t won a championship since 2008. As for Dallas, Kyrie Irving has a chance to shape his legacy while Luka Doncic is four wins away from starting the conversation of where he lands among the all-time greats.
Let’s dive into our bold predictions for the NBA Finals.
Kristaps Porzingis returns for Game 1 of the NBA Finals
We predicted that Kristaps Porzingis wouldn’t play in the Eastern Conference Finals, but now we’re going in the opposite direction for the NBA Finals. The Celtics have teased that a return is somewhat close, with Porzingis ramping up his basketball activity. Sweeping the Indiana Pacers provided a lot of rest and it should pay off in giving Porzingis just enough time to make it back. However, we think he’ll be held under 25 minutes in his first game back.
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Kyrie Irving has a revenge game at TD Garden
Everyone knows the history here. Boston Celtics fans do not like Kyrie Irving and that will be on full display when he first takes the court at TD Garden. However, the NBA playoffs have already proven Irving can rise to the occasion. He’s already scored 30-plus points six times this postseason and with extra defensive attention put on Luka Doncic, we’re confident Irving will have a big game in Boston that will help the Mavericks steal one from the Celtics.
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Jaylen Brown averages 30+ PPG in the NBA Finals
Even as the Eastern Conference Finals MVP, Jaylen Brown still isn’t getting enough credit for what he’s done in the playoffs. Brown shot 54.1 percent from the field across 14 games, by far the career-best mark for him in the postseason. After averaging 22.8 PPG in the first round, 23.4 PPG in the semifinals and 29.8 PPG in the Eastern Conference Finals, we’re predicting that Brown has the series of his life by eclipsing 30 points per game against the Mavericks.
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics avoid rust in Game 1 victory
Both teams will be well-rested ahead of Game 1, although, it’s fair to wonder if the Celtics might have a little more rust since they won’t have played a game from May 28 – June 5. However, this is a very experienced team and even if matchups against their Eastern Conference opponents weren’t especially competitive, that also speaks to how dominant and well-rounded the Celtics are. Plus, Mavericks’ coach Jason Kidd likes to use Game 1 to figure out his rotations and that means a lot of in-game tinkering. That’s going to prove costly against the Celtics, who will take Game 1 in a 109-101 final with Tatum and Brown combining for nearly 60 points.
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Dallas Mavericks steal Game 2 in Boston
The saying goes that a series doesn’t start until someone loses at home. While it can be a flawed expression, there’s no doubt that the excitement and interest for a series changes if the road team steals one of the first two games. After all, it gives them a home-court advantage and makes it a best-of-five series. Everyone knows the Celtics aren’t especially dominant at TD Garden during the playoffs and we’ve all seen their issues with Game 2. After dropping the series opener, we’re predicting the Mavericks storm back on June 9 to take Game 2 of the NBA Finals with Irving (30-plus points) and Doncic (triple-double) making it a best-of-five series.
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Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis
This NBA Finals matchup is going to be a chess match, with the Celtics and Mavericks responding each game to what the other team did in the previous meeting. It’s part of the reason why we see Boston responding from its home defeat to immediately get its revenge by taking the Mavericks’ first home NBA Finals game since June 9, 2011. On this night, it will be a revenge game for Porzingis against his former team and in front of a home crowd that won’t give him a warm welcome back. It will be Porzingis and Brown leading the Celtics to a 112-104 victory, giving Boston a 2-1 series lead.
Luka Doncic evens the series with 40-burger in Game 4
In the history of the NBA playoffs, teams that take a 3-1 series win over 95 percent of the time and only one team in NBA Finals history has come back to win after trailing 3-1 in the series. So dropping Game 3 makes the following matchup a must-win situation for Dallas. That seems to be when Luka Doncic is at his best. With the Mavericks’ championship hopes basically on the line, Doncic will score 40-plus points in the NBA Finals for the first time in his career. Whether or not Dallas goes on to win the series, Doncic’s Game 4 clinic will be one we all remember.
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Tatum, Jrue Holiday put the Boston Celtics on the doorstep of a championship
As we said before, we expect the NBA Finals to be a constant back-and-forth. Following our predicted monster performance by Doncic in Game 4, Tatum and Jrue Holiday will respond with clutch performances of their own back at TD Garden in Game 5. While Tatum will do a majority of the scoring, Holiday’s defense and some clutch moments in the fourth quarter will help seal the Celtics’ 115-108 victory to take a 3-2 series lead.
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P.J. Washington helps the Dallas Mavericks force a Game 7
We’ve been focused on the stars in our NBA Finals predictions, but the basketball world knows that role players can swing a game and help determine a series. After averaging 1.8 three-pointers made per game and shooting 32 percent from the perimeter in the regular season, P.J. Washington is shooting 36.3 percent from deep and averaging 2.4 treys made per game in the NBA playoffs. Washington might not go off for 20-plus points, but some big hits from deep in the second half of Game 6 will help Dallas force a winner-take-all Game 7.
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Dallas Mavericks win NBA Finals, Luka Doncic takes home Finals MVP
We think it’s all going to come down to one night, Game 7 at TD Garden on Sunday, June 23 on ABC. Tatum and Brown, leading a team with a 16-year championship drought and one title in 38 years versus Doncic trying to prove he can be one of the best players in NBA history. In a back-and-forth series, we’re predicting a tight fourth quarter with Doncic scoring in double figures including a dagger three with under 60 seconds left for a 107-104 win as he takes home a championship ring and Finals MVP.
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