Barring a locker room mutiny, Josh McDaniels will be the Las Vegas Raiders head coach in 2023 and beyond. While he hasn’t done anything to secure his place in the team’s short-term future, owner Mark Davis doesn’t seem eager to continue a cycle of constant turnover.
Every week, this question comes up or some variation of it. Is there a scenario in which the Raiders fire McDaniels?
A portion of the Las Vegas Raiders fanbase is ready to move on from McDaniels after the team went from 10-7 to 6-11 in his first year with the team, but Davis probably isn’t going to budge.
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McDaniels has jettisoned former first-round picks from the previous regime and key players such as Derek Carr and Darren Waller, which signals a rebuild of some sort—no matter what word anyone uses to describe the roster turnover.
Not only did McDaniels bring in his guys, he got rid of Gruden’s guys to tailor the roster for his staff, which isn’t a quick-fix process. Davis knows this, and that’s why he preached patience at the NFL owner’s meetings in March.
“Unfortunately, every time you change there is going to be changes that those people are going to see but you have to give them time to understand the changes,” Davis said. “I know that a lot of people can watch film and think that they know it all, but watching film doesn’t give you all the answers. You need to watch the games and be there to get the full picture. So, yeah, you gotta have patience.”
Based on those comments, Davis doesn’t sound like an owner who has a winnow mandate for his regime. Remember, amid a sluggish start to the 2022 season, he said McDaniels had done a “fantastic job.”
What else is Davis going to say to the media after he just hired McDaniels along with general manager Dave Ziegler in January of 2022?
If Davis fires McDaniels within two years, he would admit another mistake with his hiring decisions. The Raiders owner has already acknowledged past mistakes in pairing a general manager and head coach (h/t Raiders Beat):
“I gave Reggie [McKenzie] the ability to bring in his own head coach, which was the ability to have some type of working relationship,” Davis said. “That didn’t work out so well at that time. I think it was because they were two young guys that were working together, but they really didn’t have the experience to run a football team.”
“I felt this time we were going to do it really differently and find a teammate,” Davis explained. “We felt it was really important for them to have synergy. I couldn’t have found a better pair of people.”
During the Raiders’ introductory press conference for Ziegler and McDaniels, Davis mentioned synergy between his front office and coaching staff and the importance of finding the right pair for the jobs, which is why the Patriots pair from New England will likely stick for three years minimum.
If Davis parts ways with McDaniels after two years, he would repeat the same cycle that led him into the uneven partnership between McKenzie and Gruden and then Gruden and Mayock. He seems to believe that the chemistry between Ziegler and McDaniels will help right the Silver and Black ship regardless of how bleak it looks at the moment.
Let’s also remember that Davis has shown a lot of patience with his general manager and head-coaching hires.
McKenzie went 18-46 through four losing seasons before the Las Vegas Raiders made their first playoff appearance on his watch in 2016. Davis allowed him to stay one year into Gruden’s regime—even though the partnership seemed unsustainable because of the former’s perceived power with a 10-year, $100 million contract.
Davis booted head coach Jack Del Rio because, after six years, he was finally able to convince Gruden into coaching the Raiders for a second stint. If Gruden chose to keep his job in the Monday Night Football booth, Del Rio would’ve had a chance to steer a 6-10 squad back in the right direction for the 2018 campaign and beyond.
So, if you’re looking for Davis to drop the hammer on McDaniels after another sub-.500 season, pump the brakes and take a breath.
Unless the locker room leaders turn on McDaniels, he’s safe for another year regardless of the team’s record because Davis has allowed the current administration to rebuild the roster with turnover at key positions.
Keep in mind that the benefit of bringing in “your guys” is they’re less likely to turn their backs on you when things go sour. They’re likely to blame themselves (a lack of execution) rather than the overall game plan or strategies in place.
Lastly, Josh McDaniels has a built-in reason for a disappointing year if quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t able to play most of the games. They’ve added a clause to his contract that allows the team to release him without taking a cap hit if he reinjuries his surgically repaired foot.
You couldn’t possibly believe that the Las Vegas Raiders will contend for a playoff spot with Brian Hoyer, rookie fourth-rounder Aidan O’Connell, or Chase Garbers under center, right? Of course not.
Yes, the Las Vegas Raiders will do their best to win games in 2023, but if they finish 3-14, 4-13 or 5-12, Davis, Ziegler, and McDaniels will pivot their focus to finding the team’s quarterback of the future in next year’s draft. Davis will give the coaching staff a chance to mold that player into the face of the franchise.
In 2023, the Raiders will either surprise a lot of people with a playoff appearance or position themselves for the next phase of a rebuild with an eye toward a crucial 2024 draft.
Maurice Moton covers the Raiders for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.