The NCAA Tournament has come down to the Final Four. A 2024-’25 college basketball season is now just three games away from crowning a national champion. It’s been a very ‘chalk’ year in March Madness, with the best college basketball teams showcasing their excellence. Our Final Four predictions will project the outcomes for both the men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments.
For the men’s final four, Cooper Flagg and the Duke Blue Devils made it as everyone expected and they’ll draw a matchup against the fellow No.1-ranked Houston Cougars. Meanwhile, the winner of the Duke vs Houston battle will face the victor in No. 1 Auburn vs No. 1 Florida for a spot in the national championship game.
On the women’s side of the bracket, we saw similar chalk results. We’ve got an SEC final rematch between the No. 1-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks and the No. 1-ranked Texas Longhorns. They’ll face the battle between No. 1 UCLA Bruins and No. 2 UConn Huskies, a duel between stars Paige Bueckers and Lauren Betts.
Let’s dive into our Final Four predictions for both the men’s and women’s matchups.
Men’s Final Four predictions
No. 1 Auburn vs No. 1 Florida
A record 14 SEC teams made the NCAA Tournament and now the best two programs in the conference this season will battle it out in the Final Four. In their lone matchup during the regular season, the Florida Gators went into Neville Arena and knocked out the No.1-ranked Auburn Tigers 90-81, with the free-throw shooting (83.3% – 60.9%) proving to be a difference-maker. Now we get a rematch with a trip to the national championship game at stake.
Related: Highest-paid college basketball coaches
The stars of the Auburn vs Florida matchup will be senior forward Johni Broome and senior guard Walter Clayton Jr. After a rough two-game shooting stretch to open the NCAA Tournament – 24 total points on 9-of-22 from the field – Broome has been on a tear. The 6-foot-10 forward has averaged 23.5 PPG and 15 RPG across the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight. Meanwhile, Clayton Jr. is coming off a 30-point performance (13-of-14 on FTs) and he’s scored 23-plus in three of four tournament games.
Looking at this tight SEC matchup, picking the winner comes down to a few things. First, which team is more well-equipped to limit the effectiveness of their opponent’s best player? With the size Florida has and how well Clayton Jr. handled the Tigers’ defense, we give the slight edge to the Gatos. In a back-and-forth battle, shooting from the free-throw line could be the ultimate decision-maker and Florida has the slight edge there. With some late-game heroics from Clayton Jr., the Gators advance to the national championship.
- Prediction: Florida Gators 84, Auburn Tigers 80
No. 1 Duke vs No. 1 Houston
The Houston Cougars’ defense has led to a run of dominance during the NCAA Tournament. Houston’s suffocating defense has allowed just 56.5 PPG, the fewest surrendered in the tournament. This team held opponents to shooting 38.2% from the field this season with more turnovers per game generated (13.4) than assists per game allowed (11.3). Beyond the Cougars’ ability to limit effective scoring, they have also been excellent shooting from the perimeter – 36-of-92 (39.13%) – during the NCAA Tournament.
Related: Exec reveals Cooper Flagg NBA comparison
Led by Cooper Flagg, the Duke Blue Devils have the best offense in college basketball. Not only did the Bleu Devils lead college basketball in KenPom Offensive Rating (130.1) but they had the most efficient offense in the sport since 1996 (ESPN). Flagg has been excellent – 19.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 5.3 APG on 44.8%/42.9%/87% – while fellow stars Kon Knueppel (14.8 PPG and 53.8% 3PT) and Khaman Maluach (11,5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2 BPG) are also rising to the occasion. Duke’s defense, led by Flagg on the perimeter and Maluach in the paint, is also excellent.
While Houston has the best defense in college basketball, Duke has the best lineup in the sport. Flagg is an NBA-caliber starter who is more than capable of finding ways to create offense even when facing the No. 1 defense in the nation. He also has the necessary help around him to limit the effectiveness of the Cougars’ defense. Ultimately, for as well-coached as Houston is, the more talented team wins.
- Prediction: Duke Blue Devils 69, Houston Cougars 65
Men’s National Championship Game prediction: Duke Blue Devils 81, Florida Gators 74
Women’s Final Four predictions
No. 1 UCLA vs No. 2 UConn
The UCLA Bruins reached the women’s Final Four for the first time in program history, led by standout center Lauren Betts. Betts, a junior, has been excellent in the tournament, averaging 23 PPG, 9.3 RPG and 3.5 BPG while shooting 75 percent from the field. UCLA will also take the court with a perfect record against opponents outside the USC Trojans.
Related: College Basketball Games Today, Final Four schedule
On the other side is the UConn Huskies, led by Paige Bueckers. In her final NCAA Tournament run, the senior guard averaged 29 PPG and scored 30-plus in three consecutive contests with 11 total steals and 13 three-pointers made. The Huskies have also seen freshman forward Sarah Strong shine in the tournament, with three double-doubles while averaging 17 PPG, 11.8 RPG and 3.5 steals and blocks per game.
Unsurprisingly, this matchup comes down to how UConn and UCLA stop each other’s stars. UConn has some size in the frontcourt, but it is relying on freshmen with Strong and Jana El Alfy. That inexperience could play massively in Betts’s favor, but UCLA doesn’t have a defensive answer to Bueckers either. This should be a back-and-forth game, with Bueckers’ clutch shot-making in the closing 2 minutes deciding it.
- Prediction: UConn Huskies 81, UCLA Bruins 78
No. 1 South Carolina vs No. 1 Texas Longhorns
Dawn Staley’s South Carolina Gamecocks are in the Final Four once again. Even with a fairly young roster, Staley’s squad limits mistakes (12.4 turnovers per game) and it thrives on the glass (42.2 RPG). However, defense is what has led the Gamecocks to a 2-1 record versus the Texas Longhorns this season. In their last meeting, South Carolina had a shooting advantage (42.9% to 29.6% over South Carolina), resulting in a decisive 64-45 victory in the SEC Tournament final.
Texas will take the court as a clear underdog, a spot the No.1-ranked Longhorns have rarely been in this season. While they did get blown out in the SEC final by South Carolina, they did beat them at home (66-62) on Feb. 9. Defense – 36.8% FG and 26.3% 3PT – proved to be the difference-maker and Texas was able to dominate inside the paint.
Ultimately, this comes down to which program’s defense you trust more and which coach does the little things right to swing this matchup. Staley’s track record speaks for itself and the fact that South Carolina went 2-1 over Texas this season with a +32 scoring advantage swings this in the Gamecocks’ favor.
- Prediction: South Carolina Gamecocks 65, Texas Longhorns 56
Women’s National Championship Game prediction: UConn Huskies 74, South Carolina Gamecocks 69