The NFL MVP race is more wide-open than it’s been in previous years, with quarterbacks, wide receivers and edge rushers competing for Most Valuable Player. Following his performance over the Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott made another strong case for MVP.
After being carried by its defense so many times this year, the Cowboys’ offense came through in Week 13. With Dallas allowing more than 30 points in nearly three quarters of action, Prescott needed to save the Cowboys with a dramatic comeback. Once again, he delivered.
- Dak Prescott stats 2023: 3,234 passing yards, 7.87 yards per attempt, 70% completion rate, 26-6 TD-INT, 108.3 QB rating, 174 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns
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After that Thursday Night Football performance, let’s take a deeper look at Prescott’s recent success.
Dak Prescott elevating his game with Cowboys’ offense on his shoulders
Prescott belonged in the NFL MVP race long before Thursday’s fourth-quarter comeback. Since struggling against the San Francisco 49ers defense in a blowout loss, Prescott has been the best quarterback in the NFL since Week 6.
We’re not just talking about the NFL’s leader in QBR (80.7), passer rating or basic stats. The face of the Cowboys’ franchise is almost single-handedly carrying the offense, putting up numbers in every situation tha matters when evaluating top quarterbacks.
From Weeks 6-12, Prescott ranked 1st in QBR against the blitz, when pressured, against man coverage, when throwing from inside and outside the pocket and he has the highest QBR on third downs. If you include Prescott’s numbers from Thursday night, he’s playing at an all-time level.
- Dak Prescott stats (Weeks 6-13): 121.5 QB rating, 70.5% completion rate, 21-2 TD-INT, 2,173 passing yards (310.4 pass ypg), 129 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 6-1 record
He’s achieving a rare level of success that surpasses fellow MVP candidates like Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. According to Pro Football Focus, Prescott has the second-highest QB rating on throws 20-plus yards downfield (141.0), he leads the NFL in passer rating (121.8) and completion rate (69.1 percent) versus pressure and he has the seventh-best completion rate (69.6 percent) against the blitz since Week 6.
- Dak Prescott stats on 3rd downs: 72.8 percent completion rate, 7-2 TD-INT, 117.2 QB rating
- Dak Prescott stats in 4th quarter: 68.4 percent completion rate, 6-3 TD-INT, 103.3 QB rating
Prescott put those same skills on display in the comeback victory over Seattle. Entering the fourth quarter with a 35-27 deficit, the Cowboys’ signal-caller led an immediate scoring drive to make it a three-point game. On the next drive, he covered 74 yards in seven plays while going 4-for-5 for 35 yards including the game-winning touchdown.
Notably, Prescott also became the ninth player in NFL history to record 20-plus touchdowns with two or fewer interceptions in a six-game span during one season. Six of those quarterbacks went on to win NFL MVP.
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The path ahead for Dak Prescott
Prescott should arguably be the MVP favorite right now, but the odds still favor Hurts. It certainly centers on recency bias, with the Philadelphia Eagles already having a victory against Dallas this season. However, Prescott (69.1 QBR) outperformed Hurts (58.3 QBR) in that matchup.
There’s still an opportunity to overtake Hurts. Dallas faces the Eagles at AT&T Stadium on Sunday Night Football in Week 14, providing Prescott with an opportunity for revenge. If he can come out on top of that game, delivering another strong performance, Prescott should be the MVP front-runner heading into Week 15.
From that point on, he is in control of the race. Prescott would only strengthen his resume with wins over Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (Dec. 17) followed by a victory over Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins on Christmas Eve. All of those games will either be nationally televised or broadcast to a majority of the country, strengthening the narrative behind Prescott’s MVP campaign.
With the level Prescott is performing at, nothing should prevent him from winning MVP if he maintains his current pace. The timing would also be perfect for a player who is poised to enter contract negotiations with Dallas this offseason.