The college football Week 4 schedule sees a few of the best teams in the nation off, including the Ohio State Buckeyes, Georgia Bulldogs and the Penn State Nittany Lions. While many of the top-10 teams are on bye, there are still some great college football games to watch this weekend.
Let’s dive into our college football predictions for Week 4, projecting the seven best games on the schedule.
(16) Utah Utes – 28, (17) Texas Tech Red Raiders – 24
For those who haven’t been keeping a close eye on the Utah Utes, this isn’t the style of team it used to be. After averaging 21.3 points per game (108th in FBS) with a 4.8 yards-per-play average (4.8), Utah enters Week 4 averaging 37 PPG (23rd) and 6.2 yards per play (32nd). It’s all thanks to transfer quarterback Devon Dampier- 628 passing yards, 7-0 TD-INT, 73% completion rate and 198 rushing yards-who leads a unit that is averaging the second-highest conversion rate (72.7 percent) on third downs this season.
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On the other side, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are just as intriguing. Holding a 3-0 record, this team has a 46.3 average margin of victory on the year. It starts with a Red Raiders’ defense that has allowed the 11th-lowest yards per play (3.9) and the 13th-fewest first downs per game (13.5). Texas Tech has also received a nice string of performances from quarterback Behren Morton, who boasts an 11-1 TD-INT ratio and 923 passing yards.
Now, it’s very fair to say that both these programs haven’t faced strong competition. That just adds to the intrigue of this matchup, as it’s a litmus test for each program. What’s critical for Utah will be taking away downfield shots, as five of Morton’s touchdowns this year have come on throws 20-plus yards downfield. We expect a back-and-forth battle, but home-field advantage and the slight edge from having a dual-threat quarterback will push this in Utah’s favor.
(11) Oklahoma Sooners – 27, (22) Auburn Tigers – 20
We typically only get revenge games in the NFL, but the explosion of players entering the transfer portal now makes it a bigger factor in college football. On Saturday afternoon, Auburn Tigers quarterback Jackson Arnold returns to Norman to face the Oklahoma Sooners after the program replaced him with gunslinger John Mateer this offseason in an effort to revitalize the offense.
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From Oklahoma’s perspective, the biggest key to winning this game will be generating pressure on Arnold. Entering Week 4, per Pro Football Focus, Auburn’s quarterback averages just 3.1 yards per attempt with a 33.5 PFF grade, a 9.1 percent turnover-worthy play rate, and a 56.8 passer rating when pressured. From a clean pocket, Arnold averages 7.8 yards per attempt with a 116.6 passer rating (NFL). Auburn has allowed an 8.64 percent sack rate (101st), but it ranks sixth in the SEC in pass-blocking efficiency.
From the Tigers’ perspective, it comes down to converting on downfield shots that stress Oklahoma’s defense and finishing Saturday with the more effective rushing attack. Given the familiarity Brent Venables and the Sooners’ defense have with Arnold’s weaknesses, along with the recent emergence of running back Tory Blaylock, we see Oklahoma pulling out the win at home thanks to stout defense and a strong ground game.
(13) Ole Miss Rebels – 42, Tulane Green Wave – 28
With the way Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss performed last Saturday — 353 passing yards, 62 rushing yards, and 3 total touchdowns — Lane Kiffin can take his time bringing Austin Simmons (ankle) back. The Rebels’ offense fired on all cylinders against Arkansas with Chambliss under center, especially since there could be even greater opportunities for him if Kewan Lacy gets going early on Saturday afternoon versus a defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per carry this year, including 173 yards to South Alabama’s Bishop Davenport and Kentrel Bullock.
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There lies our concern for the Tulane Green Wave in this matchup. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff — 522 passing yards, 288 rushing yards, and 8 total touchdowns — is carrying an explosive offense that averages 30 points and nearly 420 total yards per game. However, he is tasked with overcoming a defense that allows 5.4 yards per play (69th) and 23 first downs per game (99th). The matchup strongly favors what Kiffin’s team does best, and there’s a chance this one could get one-sided by the third quarter.
Nebraska Cornhuskers – 20, (21) Michigan Wolverines – 17
It’s the battle of the recent five-star quarterback recruits in Week 4. The Michigan Wolverines have progressively opened up this offense more for true freshman signal-caller Bryce Underwood, most recently letting him showcase his athleticism (114 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on nine carries) versus Central Michigan. On the other side, Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola is in his second year and showcasing real improvements as a sophomore, with a skyrocketing passer rating (129.9 to 178.8) and a huge jump in his yards-per-attempt average (6.9 to 8.8).
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While all of the attention will be on the young quarterbacks, this game will obviously be decided by the defense. Through three games, Nebraska has allowed the fewest passing yards per game (66.0), the lowest ypa (3.0) and it hasn’t surrendered a single passing touchdown this year. Meanwhile, having faced much better competition, Michigan has still held opposing quarterbacks to 5.4 ypa, 182.3 pass ypg and a 3-5 TD-INT line.
We’re leaning towards a slight upset, with Michigan (-2.5) falling at Memorial Stadium. Underwood has the potential to surpass Raiola by next season, but the true freshman still makes inexperienced-driven mistakes and his ball placement is inconsistent. Steady pressure from Nebraska’s defense should lead to an interception and, along with some missed throws, stall enough Wolverines’ drives for a Cornhuskers’ victory.
(23) Missouri Tigers – 28, South Carolina Gamecocks – 13
This Week 4 matchup lost a lot of its luster after South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers suffered a concussion this past Saturday. Given that Sellers is dealing with a concussion and his long-term importance to this program, it wouldn’t be a surprise if South Carolina keeps him out against Mizzou.
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That’s likely part of the reason why the Missouri Tigers are a two-touchdown favorite to win on Saturday night at home. Even with Sellers, though, it’s been hard to trust the consistency of a Gamecocks’ offense that comes into the week ranked 70th in yards-per-play average (5.4) and is near the bottom of the FBS in third-down conversion rate (30.6 percent). South Carolina’s defense will keep it close early, but running back Ahmad Hardy will start breaking off big runs and it’ll be over from there.
(4) Miami Hurricanes – 27, Florida Gators – 17
We might be witnessing one of Billy Napier’s last games as the Florida Gators coach this Saturday. The last thing Napier needed was his offense, which had a 34.5 percent third-down conversion rate in its last two games, going on the road to face the Miami Hurricanes defense. Miami’s opponents have averaged just 13 points per game this season, getting shut down on the ground (75 ypg and 2.6 ypc) with a 32.4 percent third-down conversion rate allowed. We just have no faith in DJ Lagway and this Gators’ offense playing well enough to win in Miami.
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(9) Illinois Fighting Illini – 24, (19) Indiana Hoosiers – 21
This is the very definition of a must-see head-to-head matchup. On one side of the ball will be an Indiana Hoosiers offense that ranks ninth nationally in third-down conversion rate (61.8 percent), sixth in passing efficiency (195.74), and first in first downs per game (30.3). That unit will be battling an Illinois Fighting Illini defense that allows just a 31.6 percent third-down conversion rate, has a 114.57 passing efficiency, and limits opponents to only 14.7 first downs per game.
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There’s also plenty of intrigue with both quarterbacks, as Luke Altmyer and Fernando Mendoza are both capable of executing at a high level. Home-field advantage will help the Hoosiers, but we tend to side with the team that wins first with its defense. It’ll be a great matchup to end the night, but Illinois will come out of Week 4 with the victory and a growing buzz about their playoff potential.
