College Football Playoff predictions: Projecting every CFP game, national champion

The stage is officially set for the College Football Playoff, with conference championship weekend dictating the final seedings for the top-ranked teams. It’s now a 12-team battle to win the national championship and the first year of the expanded College Football Playoff promises to be unique and exciting. Now that the final CFP rankings are out, let’s dive into our College Football Playoff predictions.

(7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish 31, (10) Indiana Hoosiers 20

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Indiana Hoosiers both don’t have to leave the state for their first-round College Football Playoff matchup. Indiana finished the regular season with the best run defense in college football, allowing just 76.2 yards per game with the second-lowest yards per carry (2.6). Even the Ohio State Buckeyes only put up 115 rushing yards (4.0 ypc) on Indiana.

That will force Notre Dame to put this game in the hands of quarterback Riley Leonard. It’s not something they’ve done a ton of this year, ranking 94th in passing rate (44.34 percent). What does give Notre Dame the big edge, however, is its defense. Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke completed just 8-of-19 attempts for 68 yards in his lone matchup against a ranked opponent this season and the Fighting Irish defensive line can wreak havoc in the Hoosiers’ backfield. The combination of the atmosphere at Notre Dame Stadium and the talent advantages in the trenches will propel Fighting Irish to a win.

(9) Tennesee Volunteers 27, (8) Ohio State Buckeyes 24

One of the best first-round matchups in the College Football Playoffs is easily the Tennessee Volunteers vs Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State finished its season with a top-20 offense and the best scoring defense (10.9 PPG allowed) and Tennessee averaged the 11th-most points per game (37.3) while allowing the fourth-fewest PPG (13.9).

Tennessee wants to run the football, attempting it on 60.78 percent of its plays this season (11th most) making for a strength-versus-strength battle as Ohio State allowed the sixth-fewest rush ypg (97.3) and the fifth-lowest yards per carry (2.9). Tennessee’s offensive line (7.45 percent sack rate allowed, 91st in FBS) will be tested by this Buckeyes’ pass rush, but we believe freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava will step up and deliver his first signature moment with the Vols. This should be a great game that comes down to the final possessions.

(5) Texas Longhorns 34, (12) Clemson Tigers 20

The Clemson Tigers have had problems stopping the run this season, ranking 45th in rush defense (139.1 rush ypg allowed) and placing 76th in yards-per-carry average (4.5) surrendered. Just look at what South Carolina (267 yards, 6.4 ypc), Louisville (210 yards, 7.8 ypc) and Georgia (169 yards, 6.3 ypc) did to this run defense.

Expect the Texas Longhorns to make sophomore running back Quintrevion Wisner – 334 yards vs Kentucky and Texas A&M – to be the focal point for this offense against Clemson. What opens this to be a one-sided game is the Longhorns’ defense, which allowed the fewest yards-per-play average (3.8) during the regular season. Texas should control this one from start to finish, especially if left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. returns.

(6) Penn State Nittany Lions 28, (11) SMU Mustangs 17

The introduction of hosting first-round matchups in the College Football Playoff can create a massive home-field advantage under the right circumstances. That’s what the Penn State Nittany Lions will have in this meeting. For as well as the SMU Mustangs have played this season and they deserve this playoff spot over Alabama, it will either be snowing or freezing cold at Beaver Stadium when these two programs meet and those aren’t conditions SMU is used to.

Penn State will have both the weather and a raucous crowd on its side, creating an incredibly difficult environment for young quarterback Kevin Jennings. SMU is also prone to mistakes, as we saw in the ACC Championship Game, but the Nittany Lions are far better equipped to take advantage of those and run the football more effectively than Clemson did.

(1) Oregon Ducks 28, (9) Tennessee Volunteers 21

The Tennessee Volunteers could make things interesting against the Oregon Ducks in a Rose Bowl matchup. Tennessee boasts the pass rush to at least cause some problems for Dillon Gabriel, especially if the Volunteers’ defense (ninth-best in college football) is able to quiet the Ducks’ rushing attack. However, Tennessee is also very young and big games come down to the performance of quarterbacks. For as bright as Nico Iamaleava’s future is, he’s been inconsistent this season and more often bad against elite competition. Tennessee’s playoff run ends here, with the Ducks advancing to the College Football Playoff Semifinal.

(7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish 20, (2) Georgia Bulldogs 17

There’s certainly a chance that with nearly a month of rest, Carson Beck will be able to play in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals. However, even if he does, the senior signal-caller has been wildly inconsistent this year. If he’s not at 100 percent, it could pose bigger problems against a Notre Dame defense that allowed the lowest average QB rating (94.1) and the second-fewest passing first downs per game (6.8).

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Swinging this game in Notre Dame’s favor is what it can do on the ground. The Fighting Irish had one of the best rushing attacks in the nation this season, with the three-headed attack of Jeremiyah Love, Riely Leonard and Jadarian Prince. This is going to be a defensive slugfest, but the edge goes to the Notre Dame defense and run game with Beck potentially injured.

(6) Penn State Nittany Lions 28, (3) Boise State Broncos 14

This is Ashton Jeanty vs the Penn State Nittany Lions. Jeanty enters the College Football Playoff just 91 yards shy of passing Melvin Gordon for the second-most rushing yards (2,587) in a single season. He should eclipse that mark and become just the sixth running back in college football history to rush for 30 touchdowns in a season. That’s where the positives end for Boise State.

The Broncos run the football on 57 percent of their plays, which makes for an even more difficult matchup against the Nittany Lions run defense (3.3 ypc and 103.8 rush ypg allowed). Pair a strong defense with some sacks and an interception from Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen and you have Penn State steamrolling its way to a win.

(5) Texas Longhorns 27, (4) Arizona State Sun Devils 17

The Texas Longhorns have one of the best defenses in the College Football Playoff, which helps because Quinn Ewers hasn’t looked like a high-end quarterback in months. In a quarterfinal matchup against the Arizona State Sun Devils, the name of the game for Texas will be containing Cam Skattebo. Stopping the run is one thing the Longhorns have done very well, with the exception being against Georgia. On the other side of the ball, this is where the national stage and the stakes of a ticket to the CFP Semifinal will likely prove a little too much for freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt. The Seun Devils will keep it relatively close early, but a turnover from Leavitt makes it a two-score loss.

(1) Oregon Ducks 31, (5) Texas Longhorns 27

The Texas Longhorns defense and run game are good enough to take them on a playoff run, but that ends here. Quinn Ewers – 11-7 TD-INT ratio against ranked opponents – just hasn’t proven he can be trusted against top competition under the bright lights. Defensively, the Oregon Ducks are great at creating pressure (8.48 percent sack rate) and it has resulted in a top-10 pass defense this season. With Ewers likely ineffective, the weight will be on Texas’ defense to carry this team to a victory and the Ducks have too much firepower with a poised and experienced quarterback for that to happen.

(7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish 17, (6) Penn State Nittany Lions 13

It took until this deep into our College Football Playoff predictions for the Penn State Nittany Lions to face a top-10 Power 4 program. We just can’t ignore this team’s history under James Franklin, 3-19 against AP top-10 teams and 1-14 against top-five teams. Franklin gets outcoached in some big moments and the Fighting Irish defense is plenty capable of slowing down Penn State’s offense. While we expect this to be one of the lowest-scoring games in the playoff, Notre Dame pulls it out and punches its ticket to the national championship game.

(1) Oregon Ducks 31, (7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish 24

The best team in college football throughout the 2024 season wins it all. Oregon has been tested this season by Boise State, Ohio State, Illinois and Penn State and each time it found a different way to win. The best roster in college football provides the Ducks with a different recipe for each victory, allowing Dan Lanning to find some way to exploit each opponent. In the national championship game, we’ll pick the team that is more battle-tested with the superior quarterback and that’s Oregon.

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