The AFC Championship Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens could be one of the best games in NFL playoffs history. As Patrick Mahomes battles for his place among the all-time greats, the Ravens will be putting together a resume for one of the best NFL teams ever.
Baltimore did lose four games during the regular season, which would seemingly rule them out of consideration for being called one of the best NFL teams ever. However, the Ravens’ dominance against the best teams in football and revisiting what happened in their losses can help make a case for the 2023 Ravens being one of the most dominant teams we’ve seen in decades.
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Let’s dive into our analysis of why the Ravens could be one of the best NFL teams ever.
Revisiting the Baltimore Ravens losses in 2023
The idea of a four-loss Ravens club being one of the best NFL teams ever might sound preposterous on the surface. After all, there are countless examples of franchises with 15-1, 13-3, 14-2 or even 16-0 records dominating the regular season and reaching the Super Bowl.
That’s why it’s worth revisiting Baltimore’s defeats in 2023. Because each Ravens’ loss was a greater reflection on the team’s mistakes than being outplayed by the opposition.
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Indianapolis Colts 22, Baltimore Ravens 19 (OT)
Some of the best NFL teams today don’t play their starters in the preseason and it can result in slow starts out of the gate. Baltimore held its top starters out this past preseason and that meant a longer learning curve under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
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It was obvious in September, especially against the Indianapolis Colts. The Ravens’ offense went 6-for-16 on third downs. Beyond the offensive inefficiency, running back Kenyan Drake lost a fumble at the Colts’ 22-yard line that took points off the board. Two drives later, a strip-sack against Jackson gifted the Colts 3 points.
Still, Baltimore led 19-16 with 1:48 remaining in the fourth quarter. Even after the Colts tied it, Jackson set up Justin Tucker with a game-winning attempt from 61 yards out. It was a rare miss, with the Colts winning in OT.
Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Baltimore Ravens 10
The Pittsburgh Steelers play the Ravens better than just about any team in the NFL. It’s a big part of the reason why the meeting between the rivals in October was so close. As for the loss itself, there’s no better example of the Ravens repeatedly shooting themselves in the foot.
Pittsburgh’s defense certainly deserves credit for holding the Ravens to just 5-of-14 on third downs and 1-for-3 in the red zone. T.J. Watt was instrumental in the Steelers’ victory, forcing a fourth-quarter strip-sack of Jackson to wipe out a potential game-winning drive. Baltimore turned the football over three times in the loss.
The turnovers and ineffectiveness in critical situations aren’t why the Ravens lost. Baltimore dropped five passes in that game, the most by an NFL team in 2023. Among them was; a red-zone drop by Zay Flowers, a touchdown through Mark Andrews’ hands, a dropped touchdown by Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor along with Flowers’ losing track of a big play midway through the fourth quarter. Jackson and the Ravens’ defense vastly outplayed Pittsburgh, but drops dictated the score.
Cleveland Browns 33, Baltimore Ravens 31
Baltimore controlled the first quarter against another one of its division rivals, leading 17-3 heading into the second quarter. The Cleveland Browns answered back, outscoring the Ravens’ offense 14-7 in the next two quarters thanks to a blocker Justin Tucker field goal and an interception for Jackson.
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The Ravens answered early in the fourth quarter with a Gus Edwards touchdown, taking a 31-17 lead with 11:34 remaining. Then, the offense fizzled as Cleveland made it a 31-24 game with 9 minutes remaining. Leading 31-24 with 8 minutes remaining, Jackson’s pass was deflected at the line of scrimmage on 2nd-and-8 with Greg Newsome II in the perfect place at the right time, returning it for a pick-six.
Baltimore’s attempt at a game-winning drive stalled, with the Browns responding with a 5-minute drive that Dustin Hopkins closed out with a game-winner from 40 yards out. Once again, Ravens’ turnovers cost them.
Baltimore also lost in Week 18 to Pittsburgh, 17-10, but it held out all of its starters in that game. For that reason, we’re excluding it here.
Examining the Baltimore Ravens’ historical dominance
Heading into the AFC Championship Game, Baltimore boasts a 6-0 record against opponents who were at least three games better than .500 heading into their matchup, including the postseason. Not only is Baltimore 6-0 in matchups against opponents at least three games over .500, it has delivered lopsided wins.
As highlighted by Mike Sando of The Athletic, the Ravens’ average margin of victory over opponents 3-plus games over .500 this season is the highest recorded since 2000. Additionally, according to TruMedia, Baltimore is responsible for three of the 17 biggest blowouts in such matchups in the last 24 years.
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| Team | Avg. Margin of Victory |
| Baltimore Ravens (2023) | +26.2 |
| New England Patriots (2014) | +16.1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (2008) | +15.2 |
| Baltimore Ravens (2019) | +15.0 |
| New York Jets (2002) | +14.2 |
| New Orleans Saints (2019) | +13.9 |
Of the six aforementioned teams, Baltimore (6-0) and New England are the only ones with five-plus wins against clubs who were 3-plus games over .500.
This level of dominance is also occurring in the playoffs. As mentioned by Domonique Foxworth during an appearance on The Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny, the Ravens’ defense held the Houston Texans offense to a -10 Expected Points Added in the AFC Divisional Round. Putting that into perspective, the worst NFL offense in 2023 (New York Jets) had a -11 Offensive EPA per game average. Furthermore, as highlighted by Mina Kimes, the Ravens’ defense became the first in the NFL playoffs to hold a team outside the opponents’ 25-yard line for the first time since Super Bowl LIII.
It’s not just defensive dominance we’re witnessing in Baltimore. As noted by Mike Golic Jr, the Ravens joined the ’85 Bears and 1972 Miami Dolphins as the only NFL teams in the Super Bowl era to average 25-plus points per game and lead the NFL in rushing offense and scoring defense. The ’23 Ravens and 2007 New England Patriots are also the only NFL teams ever with a 100-plus point differential in head-to-head matchups against playoff teams.
| Team | PPG | Rush YPG | PPG Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| ’85 Chicago Bears | 28.5 PPG (2nd) | 172.6 (1st) | 12.4 (1st) |
| ’72 Miami Dolphins | 27.5 (1st) | 211.4 (1st) | 12.2 (1st) |
| ’23 Baltimore Ravens | 28.4 (4th) | 156.5 (1st) | 16.5 (1st) |
In addition, per NFL Game Day, the Ravens have set the NFL record for the most wins by 14-plus points (nine) against teams with a winning record in a single year. They are joined in that company by the 2014 New England Patriots (eight), the 1996 Green Bay Packers (seven) and the 1985 Chicago Bears (seven).
DVOA, Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, is another measure of a team’s success during the season. Incredibly, per Aaron Schatz, Baltimore’s 55.2% weighted DVOA is the highest ever by an NFL team entering the Conference Championship games.
This isn’t the best defense in NFL history nor is Jackson and Todd Monken orchestrating the most unstoppable offense in the NFL today. What makes Baltimore great this season is that this is one of the most well-rounded teams in NFL history, leading to their overall historical dominance.
Baltimore Ravens offensive statistics 2023
| Yards per Play | Scoring Rate | PPG | RZ TD rate | QB rating | Points per Play | |
| 2023 | 5.9 (3rd) | 43.1% (4th) | 28.4 (4th) | 63.01% (6th) | 103.3 (2nd) | 0.452 (3rd) |
| EPA per Play | Success Rate | Rush EPA | Dropback EPA | EXP | Points per Drive | |
| 2023 | 0.069 (6th) | 47.4% (4th) | 0.009 (3rd) | 0.112 (6th) | 146.01 (6th) | 2.37 (5th) |
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Baltimore Ravens defensive statistics 2023
| Yards per Play | Scoring Rate | PPG | RZ TD rate | QB rating | Sacks per Game | |
| 2023 | 4.6 (T-1st) | 28.7% (3rd) | 16.5 (1st) | 40.82% (2nd) | 74.5 (1st) | 3.3 (1st) |
| EPA per Play | Success Rate | Dropback EPA | 3rd Down rate | EXP | Avg. TOP | |
| 2023 | -0.127 (2nd) | 40.8% (6th) | -0.142 | 36,26% (6th) | 117.86 (1st) | 2:34 (4th) |
The Ravens have already tied the NFL record for wins vs. teams with a winning record (11). The only three other teams in NFL history to accomplish that (1979 Steelers, 2003 Patriots, 2004 Patriots) all won the Super Bowl.
Baltimore is now on the doorstep of accomplishing just that. If the Ravens pull it off, they’ll have accomplished it through a path in the NFL playoffs that included shutting out the quarterback who had arguably the best rookie season ever then defeating a superstar who already has two Super Bowl rings and six consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances. If the Ravens hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season, they have an outstanding case to be considered one of the best NFL teams ever.
