The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 crushed NHL revenues and forced the League and the Players Association to severely curtail the growth of the salary cap to compensate for the unexpected revenue shortfall. Under an agreement reached during the pandemic, the cap rose just $2 million between 2019-20 and last season, which made life difficult for team executives, the players and their agents. The COVID debt is now paid off, but cap growth under the agreement is still limited to five percent — the cap rose from $83.5 million in 2023-24 to $88 million this season.
But that limit could soon be a thing of the past.
The cap for 2025-26, the last season for the current labor agreement, reportedly is scheduled to be approximately $92.5M. However, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, speaking on the latest “Hockey Night in Canada” broadcast Saturday, there are going to be conversations about taking the salary cap higher – perhaps as soon as next summer.
Prior to the pandemic, the cap was linked to League revenues, which exceeded $5 billion in 2018-19. Revenues understandably dropped during the pandemic, but they’ve more than recovered – the NHL reportedly took in $6.2 billion last season, more than 20 percent higher than the pre-COVID numbers. However, the cap number is up just eight percent – and most of that took place this past offseason.
Friedman’s report said there is a provision in the 2020 Memo of Understanding negotiated between the NHL and the PA that the two sides can negotiate a higher salary cap, which is what Friedman is talking about. If that happens, the result could yield a cap of $95 million to $97 million next season; that would be a bump of $7 million to $9 million, much higher than the expected boost of $4.4 million.
Needless to say, this would be a boon for the players. But it would also make life a lot easier for general managers and owners, who would have more wiggle room to keep their key players without making painful cuts elsewhere.
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5 NHL teams most in need of larger salary cap bump
Here are five teams that would be among the biggest gainers from a boost to the salary cap (all figures are from Puckpedia).
New York Rangers
Igor Shesterkin, one of the top goalies in the NHL, can become an unrestricted free agent after this season and has already reportedly turned down an eight-year, $88 million contract offer ($11 million average annual value) that would have made him the highest-paid goaltender in NHL history, would have nearly doubled his salary – and would have more than devoured the expected cap bump.
But Shesterkin isn’t the only member of the Rangers who will be looking for a new contract. Ryan Lindgren, who’s spent several seasons as Adam Fox’s partner on the top defense pair, can be a UFA next summer. K’Andre Miller, who’s played much of the early part of this season with Fox and is a young cornerstone piece, will become a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, and figures to be due a big raise from his current AAV of $3.872 million.
Forwards Will Cuylle and Kaapo Kakko, who’ve formed two-thirds of one of the most effective third lines in the NHL this season, also become RFAs this summer – Kakko has arbitration rights.
Shesterkin’s situation alone will give GM Chris Drury plenty of headaches. Juggling the other pieces without a bigger salary cap jump will be even more difficult considering how tightt he Rangers are against the cap, especially after extending forward Alexis Lafreniere a few weeks ago.
New York Islanders
GM Lou Lamoriello will have some big decisions to make this summer for an injury-riddled team that’s missing five regulars and is already tight to the cap.
The biggest ones will come when he tries to find a way to keep both members of his top defense pair, Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov. Each can be a restricted free agent after this season.
Dobson has a cap hit of $4 million and Romanov’s is $2.5 million — each of those numbers could be doubled next season. Raises for those two alone figure to more than eat up the expected jump in the salary cap.
The Islanders’ entire No. 2 line also can walk away. Center Brock Nelson and wing Kyle Palmieri each is 33 but still performing at a high level in their walk years before hitting the UFA market. Impressive newcomer Maxim Tsyplakov is on a one-year contract and can be an RFA, as can forwards Simon Holmstrom, a useful middle-sixer, and Oliver Wahlstrom, who’s never lived up to his first-round draft status.
Edmonton Oilers
There’s one problem with being a star-driven team: Stars want to be paid – a lot.
Leon Draisaitl got his big contract with the Edmonton Oilers last summer – his cap hit for next season goes from $8.5 million this season to $14 million from 2025-33. That jump alone eats up more than the projected increase in the cap.
The Oilers will have an interesting situation this summer with defenseman Evan Bouchard. Their biggest offensive threat from the blue line becomes an RFA with arbitration rights, and his $3.9 million cap hit could more than double if he and the team opt for a long-term contract – again, eating up most or all of the cap boost.
Then there’s the biggie: Connor McDavid. The best player in the NHL has a cap hit of $12.5 million through the 2025-26 season, but the Oilers have to be sweating when they ponder how much they’ll have to shell out to keep the League’s most fearsome offensive force.
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche are more than $6.5 million over the cap on paper, but the knee injury that has kept captain Gabriel Landeskog off the ice for more than two years has them cap-compliant. They’ll have a lot of juggling to do if and when Landeskog ($7 million cap hit through 2029) returns this season.
If Landeskog is healthy, Colorado will have to juggle to keep star forward Mikko Rantanen, whose six-year contract carrying a cap hit of $9.25 million expires this summer, making him a free agent. Rantanen will likely be looking for an eight-figure contract – one that will be tough to complete without a bigger cap boost than scheduled, especially if Landeskog is back on the books.
Another forward, Jonathan Drouin, is likely to be looking for more than the $2.5 million he’s making this season. Goaltending will also be an issue – Alexandar Georgiev, the winningest goalie in the NHL over the past two seasons, has struggled so far this season and becomes a UFA this summer.
Colorado’s window of Cup contention is still open, so they’ll either have to bump up his cap hit ($3.4 million this season) or find another top-level (read: expensive) goalie to replace him.
Vancouver Canucks
Like most of the better NHL teams, the Canucks are tight against the cap this season – they’re cap-compliant because No. 1 goalie Thatcher Demko has yet to play because of a knee issue — and will have a couple of key free agents who figure to more than devour the scheduled cap boost.
No one knows when Demko will be back (there are reports his return is “imminent”), but they’ve gotten terrific play from journeyman Kevin Lankinen, a 29-year-old whose $875,000 cap hit is among the League’s best bargains this season. If Lankinen continues to keep the Canucks afloat, he figures to be in line for a nice raise as a UFA – one that the Canucks will have to decide if they want to pay. A bigger salary cap jump might make the decision easier.
Forward Brock Boeser and his $6.65 million cap hit will be another big decision. He scored 40 goals last season and had six in 12 games this season before being knocked out of the lineup by a headshot from Tanner Jeannot of the Los Angeles Kings on Nov. 7. There’s no date set for his return.
Assuming the 28-year-old returns in the not-too-distant future and continues to score at the rate he’s done since the start of last season, he’ll want a healthy raise from a team that serious cap issues.