One of the only things we can count on from year to year in the NFL is that things will shake out in ways we never saw coming.
The Oakland Raiders were supposed to be kicking into top gear this season, but that’s hardly been the case. The New York Jets were supposed to be winless. They’re not. And who knew the defending champs would be so vulnerable on defense?
These are just a few of the more shocking developments that have occurred in the first half of the 2017 NFL season. They’ve produced some very interesting winners and losers, which we’ll get to now.
Winner: Sean McVay has Rams climbing high
After years of Jeff Fisher calling the shots, young Sean McVay’s arrival in Los Angeles has been like a gust of wind to a ship that’s been lost in the doldrums.
His offensive approach has done wonders for second-year quarterback Jared Goff. After a year in purgatory, the young passer has flourished, and so has the offense as a whole — Todd Gurley is back to looking like one of the best backs in the league.
There are still some kinks to be worked out — acquiring a legitimate No. 1 receiver would be amazing — but the offense is miles ahead of where it was at in recent years.
Bringing in Wade Philips to run the defense was a stroke of genius, as well. Los Angeles is allowing under 20 points per game and is threatening to break into the top 10 in total defense.
Halfway through the season, the Rams are tied atop the NFC West with a record of 5-2.
Loser: Cleveland’s process appears flawed
The idea of hoarding draft picks is one that seems great, in theory. A team as destitute as Cleveland needs all the help it can get to fill the talent void, and the best way to do that is through the draft. However, the team’s track record of bringing in the kind of talent it takes to build a winner doesn’t hold up well to scrutiny. It’s too early to say the past two years have produced busts, but it’s not to early to wonder.
Magnifying things all the more when it comes to building a team through the draft is the continued misery associated with the quarterback position. Consider this: The Browns passed up on Carson Wentz last year. Instead, they traded the No. 2 overall pick in 2016 to the Philadelphia Eagles, who selected Carson Wentz. Then they took Myles Garrett No. 1 overall this past April and traded away the No. 12 pick to the Houston Texans, who selected Deshaun Watson.
Wentz and Watson lead the NFL with 19 touchdown passes apiece, and Watson looks like the second coming of Russell Wilson, in a bigger body.
Factory of Sadness. It’s an apt description for this franchise, which continues to shoot itself in the foot. Remember, the Browns also passed on Ben Roethlisberger back in 2004, much to the dismay of Big Ben himself, who thought he was headed to Cleveland.
Winner: Kareem Hunt is the cure-all for KC
The Kansas City Chiefs thought so much of Spencer Ware that they had no problem letting franchise legend Jamaal Charles go this offseason. Then Ware was injured and lost for the year, leaving the team with few options. Or so most thought.
Ware’s injury promoted third-round rookie Kareem Hunt, who’s been the most pleasant surprise of the season. The Toledo product already has 1,070 total yards and six touchdowns after Monday night’s game against the Denver Broncos. He’s also set some NFL records along the way.
Hunt’s abilities on the ground and as a receiver have helped the Chiefs, and quarterback Alex Smith, put together some of the best offensive performances of the year.
Loser: Raiders suddenly have no offense
While Kansas City is an offensive juggernaut, its AFC West rival in Oakland is suddenly up a creek without a paddle. The Raiders are 3-5 so far this season and have been a total Jekyll and Hyde team if ever there was one. In their three wins they’ve been able to score 34 points per game. But 45 of those points game at home against the New York Jets, and another 31 came on what has proven to be an aberration of a Thursday night game against Kansas City in Week 7.
Since going 2-0 to start the season, and taking away that 31-point outburst in Week 7, Oakland is averaging just over 13 points per game. Whether Marshawn Lynch is in the lineup or not, they’ve struggled to run the ball (No. 26 in the league), Derek Carr is averaging 236 yards per game and has thrown six interceptions in the past five games and Amari Cooper suddenly is Mr. Stone Hands.
For a team that entered the season with known defensive issues, it’s been a huge problem. It’s one that we can likely trace to the team’s decision not to retain offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave after last season. And it’s one that might not get resolved in time to salvage the season, given the relatively tough schedule the team faces the rest of the way.
Winner: Deshaun Watson smashing records
With his 400-plus yards of passing, 50-plus yards on the ground and four touchdowns Sunday in a narrow loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Deshaun Watson once again carved out a place in NFL history. Not just rookie history, mind you. NFL lore.
He’s been doing this on a regular basis, too, even landing some game-worn cleats in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. And despite the fact he didn’t start the season as the starter for Houston, Watson has more touchdown passes than anyone in the league besides Wentz, as we mentioned previously.
The Texans are still very much within striking distance of the AFC South crown, despite their sub-.500 record. As long as Watson keeps playing at such a high level, they’ll have a chance in the end to make some noise in the playoffs.
Loser: Bengals and the definition of insanity
Marvin Lewis has been the head coach of the Cincinnati Bengals since 2003. He’s the second-longest-tenured coach in the league, behind only Bill Belichick. The only real difference between the two of them is that Belichick has, you know, won big games.
Lewis hasn’t won a single playoff game as a head coach. On top of that he has a soft spot for players with questionable character — an issue that continues to plague him every year.
Last year, Cincinnati went 6-9-1, and the Bengals are one tipped pass away from being 2-5 to start this season.
The Bengals should have fired Lewis a few years back. They have maybe gotten to the point now where they’re finally ready to move on, given the simple fact Lewis is a lame duck right now without a contract for the 2018 season. If owner Mike Brown doesn’t make the move to finally rid himself of one of the truly mediocre head coaches of this generation — either during the season or after it — maybe he never will.
Winner: SKOLÂ
Teams don’t usually win without their starting quarterback, let alone without their staring quarterback and starting running back. Yet since Sam Bradford went down ahead of Week 2 the Minnesota Vikings are 5-2. And since Dalvin Cook was lost for the season in Week 4 they’ve gone 4-0.
Much of this success can be traced to the team’s defense, which is No. 3 in yards allowed and No. 4 in points allowed per game. Everson Griffen (who I underrated ranking him as the No. 62 best player in the league ahead of the season) is tied for No. 2 in the league with 10 sacks, and safety Harrison Smith has been outstanding, too, heading a tremendous defensive secondary.
We cannot discount how key backup quarterback Case Keenum has been, though. His stats won’t blow you away — seven touchdowns and three interceptions — but he’s been a stabilizing force for a team that needed one.
Now the Vikings, at 6-2 on the season, head into their bye atop the NFC North and could get Teddy Bridgewater back for the stretch run.
Loser: Adam Gase’s offense is a broken thing
Don’t take our word for it. Gase said it best after watching his offense get shut out last Thursday night against Baltimore:Â “I’m pissed. I’m tired of this. I’m tired of the offense being awful,” Gase said, per ESPN. “Guys better need to get their heads right. Coaching staff needs to do a better job, because obviously our players not knowing [what to do] is a direct reflection of them.”
It’s understandable that the passing offense is struggling. Jay Cutler hasn’t been great as Ryan Tannehill’s replacement, and Matt Moore is a career backup for a reason. But the truly baffling thing here is just how broken the rushing attack is. Thought to be one of the better ones heading into the season, the Dolphins have averaged just 76.4 yards per game and have yet to score a single touchdown on the ground.
Sure, the Dolphins are 4-3 right now. But they also have a stunning minus-60 point differential, which tells a much truer story of what’s really going on with this team.
Winner: Josh McCown keeping the Jets alive
It’s pretty crazy. The New York Jets are a few plays that didn’t go their way at the end of games from sporting a winning record.
What’s even crazier is that the team’s defense has been pretty bad. It ranks No. 29 in total defense, No. 20 in passing defense, No. 28 in rushing defense and gives up 23.3 points per game (No. 22 in the NFL).
The main reason the Jets are 3-5 right now instead of 0-8 is the play of one Josh McCown. The 38-year-old career journeyman is completing over 70 percent of his passes, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt while throwing 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. According to NFL Research, he’s also the first Jets quarterback since Ray Lucas in 1999 to throw two or more touchdowns in four straight games.
One of the truly amazing things that have sprung from the first half of NFL action.
Loser: Colts really messed up the Andrew Luck situation
Without getting into every single time the team has said something about Andrew Luck’s shoulder, we can safely issue a blanket statement: The Indianapolis Colts have lied about it for a long time. They’ve also botched things on this front since before the start of training camp. The only postitve thing we can say about any of it is that at least general manager Chris Ballard had the wherewithal to make the trade for Jacoby Brissett, who’s been working his tail off to keep the team competitive.
Anyone who’s paid any attention to Luck’s shoulder injury this year knows he should have been placed on IR and given all the time he needed to heal. That way, at least he’d be ready for the 2018 season, and in the meantime the Colts could bolster what’s still a very Swiss cheese offensive line. Instead, the Colts brought him back, because they promised fans all summer that he’d be back at some point.
Unfortunately, his shoulder still wasn’t right, and now things are going sideways in a hurry. If you wanted to write a book about how to mess with the long-term health of your franchise passer, you’d be hard pressed to match what the Colts have done this year with Luck.
Get well soon, young man.
Winner: The Saints have a defense!
The New Orleans Saints have wasted some of the best years of Drew Brees’ career. They posted records of 7-9 in each of the past three seasons, and it was all due to the simple fact that this team couldn’t stop a toddler from getting into the end zone, let alone NFL players.
The Saints have been historically bad defensively in recent years. Brees has needed to hover around the 5,000-yard mark passing just to give his team a chance. Not any more. In fact, if Brees keeps up his current pace he’ll finish the season with “just” 4,459 passing yards. That would be his lowest total since 2009. Which, as luck would have it, just so happens to be the team’s Super Bowl-winning campaign.
The reason Brees isn’t throwing so much is two-fold. First off, he has a running game again — Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are quite the duo. Secondly, for the first time in a while, the Saints are doing work defensively. They’re not crazy good yet, but they’re getting to quarterbacks (19 sacks) and are forcing turnovers (11). This is a winning formula that could see the Saints finally making some noise in the playoffs again.
Loser: Offensive flop in D.C.
Jordan Reed can’t stay healthy. Terrelle Pryor has been a dud. Josh Doctson is still not ready to be the guy.
Needless to say, Kirk Cousins misses DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. He’s still completing a high percentage of his passes, but there’s no doubt the passing game is suffering. On top of that, the offensive line has been absolutely decimated by injuries, which has been a bad development for Rob Kelley. He’s not the fleetest running back out there and thrives when the line is able to bully people. He and Samaje Perine are both averaging well under four yards per carry.
This is where things get weird. Because the Washington Redskins do have an explosive back in Chris Thompson, who’s averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Yet he’s only gotten 47 chances to run the ball this year.
Jay Gruden isn’t doing a good job of utilizing the tools at his disposal, and Washington’s offense is suffering because of it.
Winner: Steel Curtain rising
Ben Roethlisberger’s getting old, real quick. Once the owner of one of the most majestic deep balls in the NFL, he’s having real problems driving the ball downfield. As such, the team’s offensive approach is shifting, and rightly so. It’s Le’Veon Bell’s show for the most part going forward.
But none of that would be as successful as it’s been so far if not for the emergence of Pittsburgh’s defense. The Steelers are No. 4 yards allowed per game, No. 3 in sacks, and No. 2 in both passing yards and points per game. The addition of rookie T.J. Watt has sparked the entire front line. He’s been tremendous, posting 28 tackles, four sacks, four passes defended and one interception.
This was all on display Sunday night as the Steelers eked out a 20-15 win over the Detroit Lions, in Detroit, allowing no touchdowns all game.
Loser: Nothing going right for Big Blue
The New York Giants got away with sporting an overrated offense last year because the defense was so clutch. They won 11 games and earned a playoff spot, ultimately losing to Aaron Rodgers and Co. at Lambeau Field in a game Odell Beckham Jr. no-showed.
This year, the offense is dead, partly because it lost three top receivers, including OBJ and free agent dud Brandon Marshall, for the year. The offensive line is still awful, the team still cannot run the ball and Eli Manning is aging before our eyes. Throw in a predictable offense and it’s a recipe for disaster. Throw in a defense that suddenly isn’t living up to its end of the bargain and it’s easy to see why Big Blue is singing the blues with a record of 1-6.
Winner: Culture change in Buffalo working wonders
When rookie head coach Sean McDermott had a lot of the games removed from Buffalo’s locker room ahead of the season, it signaled a shift in culture. Or, at least, that was the hope. Every new coach does stuff different. Every new coach wants to “change the culture.”
Only in this case, it’s working. In addition to a no-nonsense approach on the field — defense and running is the name of the game — the Bills are taking the same approach with their roster. New general manager Brandon Beane has traded away some key players and was widely criticized for many of the moves he made (raises a hand).
This scribe couldn’t have been more wrong about the way this season would turn out for Buffalo. With a record of 5-2, one-half game behind the New England Patriots, the Bills are in great shape to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999.
Loser: Offense still a major issue in Denver
The Denver Broncos have scored a grand total of 13 offensive touchdowns all year — nine through the air and four on the ground. Trevor Siemian has taken steps in the wrong direction (especially lately), the offensive line has fallen apart and the team’s receivers — some of the best in the business — are certainly getting frustrated by now.
Part of the problem might be an over-reliance on a below-average passing game. Both Jamaal Charles and C.J. Anderson average well over four yards per game. Meanwhile, Siemian has nine touchdown passes and 10 interceptions.
Despite the defense allowing 21 points per game, the Broncos have been outscored by 20 points this year. That’s not a good look. Suddenly, after getting off to a hot start, the Broncos are below .500 and looking like a team very much in danger of missing the playoffs for the second straight year.
Winner: Carson Wentz has taken that next step
The Philadelphia Eagles are flying high right now with a record of 7-1. They lead their own division by two games at the halfway point and are alone atop the NFC.
The team’s defense has been pretty decent and likely will continue to be good provided the injury bug doesn’t bore its way into the ranks. But the biggest reason for Philly’s success has been the big leap taken by second-year quarterback Carson Wentz.
With 2,063 yards, 19 touchdowns and just five interceptions, he’s playing at a very high level right now. The added dimension of speed on the outside has been a huge reason why Wentz is thriving. Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith are both averaging at least 14.9 yards per reception, which has opened up the field for Nelson Agholor and tight end Zach Ertz.
Can Wentz sustain this high level of play all year? That’s the next big question this sophomore needs to answer. Based on what he’s done so far in his career, however, we’ll not bet against him.
Loser: Steve Sarkisian is no Kyle Shanahan
Last year with Kyle Shanahan running the Atlanta Falcons offense, Matt Ryan won the NFL MVP award. He passed for 38 touchdowns and just seven interceptions, and the Falcons led the league averaging 33.8 points per game.
This year’s offensive output has been underwhelming, to say the least. Atlanta is managing just 21.9 points per game, while Ryan has thrown just nine touchdowns through seven games. He’s also thrown six interceptions already, and Julio Jones is suffering, too, with just one touchdown pass.
Fans are already calling for the Falcons to fire Steve Sarkisian, who was hired as Shanahan’s replacement. But at this point, given the fact that Shanahan took his coaching staff with him to San Francisco, we’re pretty sure it wouldn’t help matters if they did.
Winner: Sacksonville is dangerous
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a playoff team. And that simple fact has almost everything to do with the team’s defense, which is downright scary.
The Sacksonville crew leads the league in points allowed per game and sacks, is tied for third place with 16 turnovers and has scored four defensive touchdowns. Free agent acquisition Calais Campbell leads the NFL with 10.5 sacks through seven games, while Dante Fowler Jr. and Yannick Ngakoue have combined for 12 more. Oh, and the Jaguars added defensive tackle Marcell Dareus in a trade last week.
As if the front end weren’t dangerous enough, Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye might be the best cornerback tandem in the NFL.
Look out, AFC playoff teams.
Loser: 49ers melting into the abyss
Nobody thought the 49ers would challenge for a playoff spot. The team was too talent-poor by a long shot for that. However, given some of the key pieces added via the draft and the offseason, and given the team’s defensive front, it was thought by many that they’d potentially win anywhere from four-to-six games.
Halfway through the season, it’s clear the 49ers have actually getting worse as attrition whittles away at this roster. Injuries have been brutal for this team, and the offense has been particularly awful. The Cleveland Browns might have a better chance of winning a game than the 49ers, which is really saying something.
Though, one wonders just how much different things will look the second half of the season. Jimmy Garoppolo is coming to San Francisco in a blockbuster trade that signals the team’s commitment to build around him, rather than Kirk Cousins or any rookie out there in 2018.