Kansas City Chiefs star tight end Travis Kelce going up against San Francisco 49ers All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner is one of the top matchups of Super Bowl LVIII.
Kelce is among the best tight ends in the history of football and has smashed records during the postseason. Warner is the single-best linebacker in the NFL today.
Related: Live Super Bowl 2024 Updates: Follow Our Real-Time Coverage Blog for Latest News & Highlights
As much as we want to talk about Patrick Mahomes going up against Brock Purdy, this one matchup will help dictate the outcome of the game.
Warner picked off a resounding four passes during the regular season. He’s a sideline-to-sideline playmaker who can change the game on a dime. As for Kelce, we already know how his big-play ability has helped Kansas City border on a dynasty. Here, we look at this matchup and give a final conclusion about who has the advantage.
Related: Bold predictions for Super Bowl LVIII
Travis Kelce has been a man among boys in the NFL Playoffs
Patrick Mahomes and Kelce now share the NFL Playoff record for most touchdowns between a quarterback and pass-catcher, besting the combination of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. That’s simply a sensational stat right there.
What Kelce has done during his NFL Playoff career is nothing short of extraordinary. In short, he’s been among the most-dominating pass-catchers in postseason history. That’s not hyperbole.
| Games | Receptions | Yards | AVG | TD | Comp % |
| 21 | 156 | 1,810 | 11.6 | 19 | 81.3% |
There are some extraordinary numbers to look at here. Primarily, that 81.3% catch rate is absolutely absurd. Throughout his career in the playoffs, Kelce is averaging 7.4 receptions for 86 yards and nearly a touchdown. More recently, those averages go up to 8.7 receptions for roughly 100 yards.
Mahomes has posted a QB rating of no lower than 106.9 when targeting Kelce since he took over as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback. Though, it must also be noted that Kelce put up eight-year lows in receiving yards and yards per reception this past season. Whether that will play a role in Super Bowl LVIII remains to be seen.
Related: Travis Kelce vs George Kittle in Super Bowl LVIII
Fred Warner stats and matchup against Travis Kelce
Despite earning First-Team All-Pro honors for the 49ers in 2023, Warner actually saw a downtick in production when it came to his coverage metrics.
The games best inside linebacker gave up a mere 60.3% completion and 73.0 QB rating when targeted in coverage last season. Those metrics were not as good in 2023.
| Tackles | Passes Defended | INT | FF | Comp % | QB rating |
| 132 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 73.7 | 76.6 |
The completion percentage is somewhat alarming. It also played a role in tight ends catching a solid 70% of their targets against the 49ers during the regular year.
Other advanced metrics are more than favorable to Warner. Opposing players tallied a mere 203 air yards on 56 completions (3.6 average) against Warner. He was also solid against Sam LaPorta and the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game, giving up 30 yards on seven targets.
The biggest key here for Warner will be to avoid the missed tackles and keep Kelce in front of him. The three-time All-Pro missed 14 tackles during the regular season, the second-most of his six-year career.
Related: Top matchups for Super Bowl LVIII
Other San Francisco 49ers defenders will help Fred Warner
It’s not solely going to be on Warner to do his thing. We’ll see underrated fellow linebacker Dre Greenlaw line up against Kelce, too. The same thing can be said for safeties Tashaun Gipson, Logan Ryan and rookie Ji’Ayir Brown. Heck, it would not be a surprise if corner Deommodore Lenoir got a run or two. It takes a community to stop someone of Kelce’s ilk.
Greenlaw struggled more in coverage than Warner, giving up a 70.7% completion and 100.5 QB rating when targeted. Quarterbacks also threw for 456 yards against him. He’s more of San Francisco’s enforcer at the line and somewhat of a liability in coverage (despite recording two interceptions in the NFC Divisional Playoffs). But he’ll have to be used at times with safety help over the top. That latter point is big for the 49ers.
- Tashaun Gipson stats (2023): 55.6% completion, 65.4 QB rating, 130 yards against
- Ji’Ayir Brown stats (2023): 62.5% completion, 78.4 QB rating, 165 yards against
Signed during the season, Ryan played limited action with San Francisco. He did play 113 snaps in the final two regular season games and another 67 in San Francisco’s win over the Green Bay Packers in the NFL Divisional Playoffs.
These three will be key in containing Kelce. Despite his advance age, Gipson has been elite in coverage since joining the 49ers back in 2022. A rookie third-round pick, Brown hasn’t let his inexperience show.
The final verdict: Travis Kelce with the slight advantage
This is an elite-level Super Bowl matchup. There is no other way to go about detailing it. We’re talking about one of the best receiving tight ends in the NFL going up against the single-best all-around linebacker. Both Kelce and Warner are going to make big-time plays in this game. Take that to the bank.
We give Kelce the slight advantage here due to his success in the NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl. He’s proven to come up big when it counts the most.
In no way does this mean Kansas City is going to be pull off the minor upset. If San Francisco is able to let Kelce do his thing while containing the Chiefs’ other skill-position talent, the team will come away with its sixth Lombardi. But Kelce is going to be a major X-factor. You can also take that to the bank.