The die has been cast and everyone has clear cut goals heading into the final NASCAR Xfinity Series layoff elimination race next weekend at Martinsville Speedway.
With a victory on Saturday at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Sam Mayer is the first to officially lock in. With a third-place finish, John Hunter Nemechek is all but guaranteed entry into the final four as long as nothing unusually traumatic happens.
“We are still in a really good points spot going into Martinsville,” Nemechek said. “We just have to go execute — solid points day today and that’s all you can ask for.
“Doesn’t matter how you get to Phoenix, just that you get there.”
It’s really simple, unfortunately for Sammy Smith, Chandler Smith and Sheldon Creed, as they all absolutely have to win at Martinsville. Meanwhile, it is messy and convoluted everywhere in the middle.
Playoff grid
Sam Mayer Adv
John Hunter Nemechek +44
Cole Custer +3
Austin Hill +3
—
Justin Allgaier -3
Sammy Smith -49
Chandler Smith -54
Sheldon Creed -65
First, Chandler Smith absolutely must win because he was collected in an incident between Derek Kraus and Brandon Jones that leaves him 54 points below the cutline. He was 15 back at the start of the day and left none too pleased with those that put him in this spot.
“Just two bonehead drivers doing stupid shit, I guess,” Smith said.
How does he feel about next weekend?
“Pretty damn confident,” Smith said. “We’ll do whatever it takes.”
Sheldon Creed, given the misfortune from the ROVAL was already in must-win and gambled on old tires to force something positive but that never happened. So, 65 back looks awful but it’s nominally no different than 41 back.
It’s Cole Custer who had the most eventful day, leading 114 laps before suffering a flat right rear due to contact with the Turn 3 wall, but ultimately surviving to a 13th place finish with 17 stage points earned across the first half of the race.
“I got in too deep, I guess,” Custer said with a bit of a chuckle. “I didn’t think I was pushing it too hard. I laugh because, what can you do, I’m just so frustrated.
“My guys brought the best car, the dominant car of the day, and if we do that at Martinsville, I feel good about our chances. I just hate that happened.”
With that said, he is still above the cutline.
“We are in a good spot,” Custer said. “I’m looking forward to it but with the playoffs, you don’t know what to expect.”
Custer and Austin Hill enter that race three above the cutline and Justin Allgaier is three below.
Allgaier struggled with an ill-handling race car, and stayed out too long on a loose wheel, and it damaged the hub. He finished 15th and that’s the difference between being above or below the cutline heading into the penultimate race of the season.
As it stands, that’s two spots between three drivers UNLESS Smith, Smith or Creed win and then there would be one less spot remaining to advance on points.
But none of this is Mayer’s problem after winning four times over the past 12 races.
“Oh my God, that’s crazy,” he said.
Matt Weaver is a Motorsports Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.