There is no bigger game in the College Football Playoff Semifinal this year than the Rose Bowl. It’s a battle between the Alabama Crimson Tide vs Michigan Wolverines, with the winner emerging as the heavy favorite to win the national championship game.
The stakes are plenty high for a matchup like this. Alabama’s Nick Savan is on the doorstep of becoming the first-ever college football coach with eight national championships, which would give him two more than Bear Bryant. As for the Wolverines and Jim Harbaugh, Michigan is pursuing its first national title since 1997.
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Let’s dive into our bold predictions for the 2024 Rose Bowl matchup between Alabama vs Michigan.
Bold predictions for the 2024 Rose Bowl
Michigan Wolverines’ J.J. McCarthy throws INT, hurts draft stock and returns in 2024
In the first half of the season, J.J. McCarthy was one of the best quarterbacks in college football. He sat atop the Heisman odds, was billed as a 2024 first-round pick and was seen as the quarterback who could put Michigan over the top. The narratives surrounding McCarthy and the Wolverines’ confidence in him dropped later on.
- J.J. McCarthy stats (Sept.-Oct.): 199.1 college QB rating, 1,799 passing yards, 18-3 TD-INT, 78.1% completion rate, 10.6 yards per attempt, 10.6% TD rate, 1.8% INT rate, 8 sacks taken (8 games)
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- J.J. McCarthy stats (Nov.-Dec.): 128.9 QB rating, 831 passing yards, 1-1 TD-INT, 68.6% completion rate, 7.04 yards per attempt, 0.8% TD rate, 0.8% INT rate, 10 sacks taken (6 games)
The Wolverines don’t pass much to begin with, posting the 16th-lowest passing rate (40.36 percent). After throwing for 335 yards on 37 attempts against Purdue on Nov. 4, McCarthy accounted for just 349 passing yards on 51 attempts in his final three games of the regular season. In the Big Ten Championship Game, he took four sacks and averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt against the Iowa Hawkeyes.
In the Rose Bowl, McCarthy takes on a Crimson Tide pass rush that earned the ninth-highest pressure grade in the FBS (87.6) from Pro Football Focus with the seventh-highest sack rate (9.65 percent). That’s problematic considering McCarthy’s issues versus pressure late in the year.
| PFF Grade | QB Rating (NFL) | Completion % | YPA | ||
| J.J. McCarthy vs pressure (Weeks 1-9) | 79.3 | 105.3 | 63.6 | 11.6 | |
| J.J. McCarthy vs pressure (Weeks 10-13) | 62.1 | 86.6 | 53.6 | 6.7 |
With the regressions when pressured, McCarthy is the big question mark for Michigan’s offense against Alabama. The Crimson Tide will dial up the pressure, likely leading to an interception. With a poor performance on the big stage and only projected to be a Day 2 pick right now, McCarthy will decide to return to Michigan for the 2024 season.
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Jalen Milroe scores 3 total touchdowns
It feels like forever ago that Saban benched Jalen Milroe in September, wanting the young quarterback to clear his head. However, the decision certainly seemed to pay off as the young dual-threat sensation was one of the best players in college football in the second half of the reason.
- Jalen Milroe stats (Weels 8-14): 90.0 PFF grade, 10-2 TD-INT, 68.9% completion rate, 1,179 passing yards, 10.7 yards per attempt, 127.4 NFL QB rating
Some credit for that success belongs to Alabama’s offensive line. After allowing the fourth-most sacks in the Power 5 and one of the highest pressure rates in the SEC from Weeks 1-7, the Crimson improved to 31st in PFF’s Pass Blocking Efficiency and were top-20 in pressure rate.
Alabama is facing the best defense in college football and Michigan is as good as just about anyone at creating pressure. While we don’t expect Milroe to finish with a ton of yardage in this game, 3 total touchdowns with one coming on a short drive after a turnover is very possible.
Donovan Edwards becomes Michigan Wolverines’ X-factor
While a majority of the focus in this Rose Bowl matchup centers on Blake Corum taking on Alabama’s run defense, junior Donovan Edwards could also play a critical role in the outcome. The Crimson Tide have the pass rush to pressure McCarthy and the talent at corner to stay tight with Wolverines’ receivers, but there is an opportunity here for Edwards.
- Donovan Edwards receiving stats (career): 68 receptions, 714 receiving yards, 10.5 yards per catch
Alabama’s top linebackers, Deontae Lawson and Trezmen Marshall, have not fared well in coverage this season. Lawson has allowed a 67.6 reception rate, 295 receiving yards and a 100.6 NFL QB rating in coverage on 37 targets, per PFF. Meanwhile, Marshall has surrendered a 77.3 percent reception rate with 173 yards after catch and a 103.2 QB rating.
Michigan will likely need to be using its tight ends and running backs more as pass-catchers in the Rose Bowl. Considering Edwards was one of the best pass-catching backs in the nation, averaging 1.8 yards per route run with an 89.7 percent catch rate, McCarthy could rely on him as a check-down option early and Edwards’ playmaking ability will do the rest.
Alabama Crimson Tide wins a close Rose Bowl
Alabama vs Michigan is probably a matchup of the two best teams in college football right now and it wouldn’t be surprising if the winner ultimately becomes national champions. Unlike the Sugar Bowl, this should be a relatively low-scoring game where one turnover can make the difference.
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Michigan’s defense demonstrated its greatness against the Ohio State Buckeyes earlier this year, picking of Kyle McCord twice. However, the Buckeyes have lost their last three meetings to Michigan in part because they lack physicality, Alabama wants this to be a gridiron brawl.
This truly is the Wolverines’ best chance to win a national championship and with so many key figures leaving for the NFL, potentially including Harbaugh, there’s ample motivation for the Wolverines. Ultimately, though, SEC teams that reached the College Football Playoff have demonstrated that their wealth of talent, deep rosters and unique brand of physicality often wins out. We expect this to come down to the final drive with McCarthy having an opportunity to win the game, but Michigan will fall just short.
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- Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide 24, Michigan Wolverines 20