Here’s the truth- the Ottawa Senators are in a great spot from a salary cap perspective. They have Stützle, Tkachuk, Cozens, Zetterlund, Greig, Sanderson, Chabot, and Ullmark all signed for at least the next three seasons. Batherson, Zub, and Kleven are signed for the next two. The highest salary among those players is Stützle, at $8.35 million per year. That’s nowhere near the top salaries of other NHL teams.
When looking at who’s missing from that group, the obvious player is Shane Pinto. He’s in the last year of his two year contract that pays him $3.75 million per season. He’ll be an RFA at the end of the year. So, what type of contract should the Senators offer to Pinto? Let’s dive into the details.
Shane Pinto By the Numbers
It’s been quite the roller coaster ride to start Pinto’s career. He missed almost all of 2021-22 with a shoulder injury. The next season, he was red hot to start, but ended up going through the normals ups and downs of a young player. He finished that season with 20 goals and 35 points in 82 games. Then came the infamous half season suspension, where the league decided to make an example out of Pinto. Don’t get me started on that. That brings us to last season, where Pinto put up these numbers:
- 70 games, 21 goals, 37 points, 17:33 time on ice per game
That gave Pinto a career high in both goals and points. What was notable is how his game took off after a slow start. He led the Senators in goals from December onward, scoring 20 in 55 games. He also became a highly important defensive player, which was most noticeable in the playoffs when he was tasked with trying to shut down the Marner-Matthews-Knies line shift after shift. Among forwards, only Stützle averaged more ice-time per game in the playoffs than Pinto.
Put it all together and here’s what you have: Pinto is a 24 year old, 6’3″, 204 lb two way centre that has shown himself capable of scoring 20+ goals all the while taking on important defensive duties.
Cap Hit Percentage is the Key
The best number to look at when comparing contracts is the cap hit percentage at the time of the signing. Take Batherson’s deal, for example. When he signed his six year, $29.85 million contract ($4.975 million per season), it took up 6.1% of the cap. With the rising cap, the equivalent today would be $5.825 million per season. The cap has gone up and will continue to rise, so using the percentage of the cap for comparables is the way to go.
Player Comparables
Now, to find some players who were signing their next contract in their mid 20s who had shown themselves to be quality two-way centres, while not putting up huge offensive numbers. Here’s who I found:
JG Pageau
- Signed at the age of 27 in 2020
- 5 years, $5 million per season (6.13% of the cap)
- Stats when signed (part way through the season): 60 games, 24 goals, 40 points, 19:09 time on ice/game.
Link to PJG Pageau PuckPedia profile.
Nazem Kadri
- Signed at the age of 25 in 2016
- 6 years, $4.5 million per season (6.16% of the cap)
- Last season before signing: 76 games, 17 goals, 45 points, 18:16 time on ice/game.
Link to Nazem Kardi PuckPedia profile.
Charlie Coyle
- Signed at the age of 27 in 2019
- 6 years, $5.25 million per season (6.44% of the cap)
- Last season before signing: 81 games, 12 goals, 34 points, 16:47 time on ice/game (plus 9 goals and 16 points in 24 playoff games)
- Signed one year before current contract was up.
Link to Charlie Coyle PuckPedia profile.
The Next Contract For Shane Pinto
I would imagine that Pinto, having signed back-to-back contracts of one and two years, would prefer a longer term contract this time around. I would also think that the Senators would prefer a longer term deal, so as to not have to figure out another Pinto contract in a few years when they’d also be figuring out the next deals for Tkachuk, Chabot, Zetterlund and Greig.
When looking at the comparables, it’s important to note that Pinto could sign at any point during the year, or wait until the next offseason. A lot can happen in one season. As of now, though, the comparables above make sense. That would mean that Pinto’s next deal would eat up around 6.15 to 6.50% of the cap. The cap right now is set at $95.5 million. Next season it is going to be $104 million. Let’s use six years as the length of the contract. Here are the best high and low projections that I could justify, given the salary cap, Pinto’s play, and the comparables:
- Low End: 6 years, $35.25 million ($5.875 million cap hit)
- High End: 6 years, $40.56 million ($6.76 million cap hit)
There are obviously more variables at play. What if they agree to an eight year deal? What if Pinto prefers a three or four year contract? What if he has a massive season, or a poor one? As of now, though, here’s an offer that I think the player, the team, and the fans could get behind:
- 6 years, $39 million total, $6.5 million per season
Unless stated otherwise, data is compiled from PuckPedia.
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