NHL: Montreal Canadiens at Seattle Kraken
Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

Now that the Montreal Canadiens have played 10 percent of their regular-season games, it’s the perfect time to take a look at some of the trends developing in the early parts of the season.

Cole Caufield’s Goal Scoring

Caufield is currently tied for the league lead in goals, with seven. He’s on pace to score 64 goals in an 82-game, prorated season, which would be a rather impressive result, given that only two Canadiens players have ever managed to reach the 60-goal mark. Steve Shutt did it first in 1966-67, while Guy Lafleur followed suit the next season.

As it stands, Caufield currently has a 26.9 shooting percentage (all situations), which is well above his career average of 13 percent.

Realistically, he’s not going to score 64 goals, but is there a chance he can hit 50?

The main sticking point is his shot rate at 5v5, which is just 6.7 shots per 60, a far cry from his usual shot rate of roughly 10 shots per 60. Seeing as Caufield is a volume shooter, the numbers suggest that he’ll need to put a lot more pucks on net if he’s to hit the 50-goal mark.

That being said, there are relatively decent odds he’ll be able to score 40 goals, especially if he continues to receive heavy powerplay and overtime usage. This would set a new career high for the 24-year-old sniper.

Nick Suzuki’s Lack Of Goals

On the flip side of the coin, Suzuki has only managed one goal through nine games.

Despite the downtick in goals, he’s still maintained a point-per-game pace, placing him among the top scorers in the NHL with 12 points, one more than Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, and Connor McDavid.

Unlike his linemate, Suzuki has never been a high volume shooter. He tends to focus on taking shots from high-danger scoring areas, which usually leads to a slightly inflated shooting percentage. On that note, even though it may not seem to be the case, Suzuki is actually taking more shots at 5v5 than he has since he joined the Canadiens in 2019.

He will undoubtedly start scoring with more regularity as the season unfolds, but he has a rather steep hill to climb if he’s to reach his normal shooting percentage, which typically hovers near 15 percent.

A realistic projection would land in the 20-25 goal range if his shooting percentage normalizes to a certain extent.

Montreal Canadiens Rookie Success

With four goals, Oliver Kapanen leads all first-year players, while fellow rookie Ivan Demidov is tied for third in rookie scoring (1G, 5A).

Before delving too deep into the numbers, it’s fair to say Kapanen won’t keep scoring on every third shot. It’s the epitome of unsustainable. However, we have to acknowledge the quality of the passes that have led to goals, and that’s where Demidov’s talent comes into play.

Few players in the lineup do a better job creating time and space in the offensive zone. Demidov is among the league leaders in passes to high-danger scoring areas, a situation that has clearly facilitated Kapanen’s impressive goal-scoring rate.

Simply put, not all assists are created equally.

The flip side of the coin is that their underlying numbers at 5v5 are far from encouraging. They’ve been outshot by a relatively wide margin on most nights (52-73).

So far, they’ve been surviving on pure skill.

And yet, their possession numbers have improved in recent games. When we consider Alex Newhook is the elder statesman on the line at just 24 years old, there’s a chance they will maintain their upward trajectory. It’s also worth noting they’ve actually held an edge in quality scoring chances (12-9).

The statistics tell us that Kapanen’s goal scoring will dry up faster than a shallow puddle after a sun shower, but I’m starting to change my opinion as to the long-term value of the line.

We’ll need a few more games to get a better idea of their potential, a fair assessment considering it’s the youngest line on the youngest team in the league.

All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.

Do you have an interesting idea regarding a trend that’s worth investigating? If so, let us know in the comments below the article.

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By Marc Dumont
Marc has been covering the Habs for over a decade. He previously worked for Journal Metro, The Athletic, The ... More about Marc Dumont

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