It’s Week 11 of the NFL season, and we’ve got another round of upsets in store this week. Among the games on tap this Sunday: the Baltimore Ravens against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Kansas City Chiefs facing the Buffalo Bills, and the Cincinnati Bengals taking on the Los Angeles Chargers. Who’s on upset alert? We share our top five picks.
Pittsburgh Steelers over Baltimore Ravens
With first place in the AFC North at stake, the 7-3 Baltimore Ravens face the 7-2 Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams won last week in nail-biting fashion as the Ravens beat the Cincinnati Bengals, 35-34, and Pittsburgh defeated the Washington Commanders, 28-27. The Ravens are a three-point favorite this Sunday, and we are picking the Steelers.
Why the Week 11 upset?
The Steelers have an incredible defense. They allow the second-fewest points per game at 16. Additionally, they rank eighth in the league in takeaways with 16. A Ravens-Steelers game usually comes down to which defense shows up in crunch time.
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Kansas City Chiefs over Buffalo Bills
We’re in for a treat as we have another round of Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen. This is the first meeting between the Chiefs and Bills since last season’s divisional playoff game when Kansas City won 27-24. This time around, the Chiefs are riding a 9-0 undefeated record. Buffalo is 8-2, and they are a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. We’re picking the Chiefs.
Why the Week 11 upset?
We believe the Chiefs can win this game because they continue to find ways to win even when they aren’t playing their A game. Last week, Kansas City shockingly beat the Denver Broncos thanks to a blocked field goal at the end of the game. Two weeks ago, the Chiefs scored 30 points for the first time all season, and this week could require that type of offensive output.
One thing to note: kicker Harrison Butker is out for four weeks with a left knee injury, so the kicking game will be impacted.
Related: Kansas City Chiefs game today: TV info, Week 11 injury report, and upcoming 2024 Chiefs schedule
Atlanta Falcons over Denver Broncos
The 5-5 Broncos have lost two straight games, including last week’s gut-wrenching loss against the Chiefs in which they had the game-winning field goal attempt blocked. The Atlanta Falcons are 6-4 and are also coming off a loss. The Broncos are two-point favorites against Atlanta. We’re picking the Falcons.
Why the Week 11 upset?
We are picking the Falcons because of how explosive their offense is compared to Denver’s. The Broncos rank in the bottom half of the league in total yards per game (304) and only score 20 points per game. The Falcons, on the other hand, rank top five in yards per game (375) and put up 24 points per game. Give us Atlanta.
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Indianapolis Colts over New York Jets
Both the Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets have had subpar seasons as they are 4-6 and 3-7, respectively. The Colts recently went back to Anthony Richardson as their starting quarterback. The Jets are a train wreck, as so much has gone wrong, particularly on offense. Yet, the Jets are favored by 4.5 points over Indy this Sunday. We’re taking a chance picking the Colts.
Why the Week 11 upset?
The reason we are picking the Colts is that the Jets’ defense has one glaring weakness: they cannot stop the run. They give up 135 yards per game. The Colts’ offense averages 121 yards per game on the ground. Running back Jonathan Taylor should have a field day running through New York.
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Cincinnati Bengals over Los Angeles Chargers
The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-6 after coming off a heartbreaking loss last week against the Baltimore Ravens. The Los Angeles Chargers are following a win against the Tennessee Titans. The Chargers are two-point favorites this Sunday night against Cincinnati. We’re picking the Bengals.
Why the Week 11 upset?
We are picking the Bengals because they are extremely desperate to stay in the AFC’s wild card race, and at this point in the season, they know what’s at stake. For as great as the Chargers’ defense has been this season — leading the league in fewest points allowed per game (13) — they are in for a tall order facing a lethal Bengals offense led by Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Cincinnati averages 27 points per game — the sixth-most in the league. It could be a Sunday-night shootout.
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