Tied for the best record in the NFL heading into Week 14, it’s crazy to even write an article indicating that the Arizona Cardinals might miss the playoffs.
But in this era of parity around the league, Bruce Arians’ squad is in no way guaranteed of playing postseason football this year. Now at 9-3 on the season and losers of two consecutive games, there is a logical scenario at play that could lead to one of the most surprising teams in the league falling flat on its face over the final four weeks of the regular year.
Let’s break it down for a second here.
1. Schedule
Following this week’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Arizona takes on three consecutive division opponents to end the season. It does so with both Seattle and St. Louis playing elite-level football and San Francisco in desperation mode entering the final quarter of the season.
This means that three of Arizona’s final four games are against teams that earned a playoff trip last season. The fourth game comes against a Rams team that has defeated the last two NFC champions and the defending AFC champions since Week 7. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Arizona goes 1-3 or 0-4 during this span, especially considering the injuries this team is currently going through.
2. Injuries
More so than Carson Palmer going down for the season, the Cardinals entire roster seems to be dealing with some type of injury. Safety Tyrann Mathieu will likely be sidelined until the team’s Week 17 outing against the San Francisco 49ers with a thumb injury. Running back Andre Ellington suffered a serious hip-pointer against the Falcons last week and is extremely questionable (bordering on doubtful) this week against Kansas City. Jared Veldheer sprained his ankle, which is something that usually forces an offensive tackle to miss some time. And this doesn’t even take into account the fact that Larry Fitzgerald has missed the last two games with a MCL sprain. It’s unknown whether he’s going to return this week.
With all these injuries and a difficult slate of remaining games, there has to be some concern in the desert. If Ellington is unable to go this week, the pressure will be on Drew Stanton to rebound from two consecutive horrendous performances. Without Mathieu, the Cardinals might also have a difficult time covering the middle of the field over the next three weeks. A middle of the field that is utilized a great deal by the team’s next three opponents. The matchup issues are real here.
3. Drew Stanton
Now that teams have an extensive period of time to plan against Drew Stanton during the week, his performance has taken a major hit. When Stanton was starting earlier in the season, there was still a possibility that Carson Palmer could have played each week. This simply isn’t the case with Palmer currently out with a torn ACL. And it has showed.
Over the course of his last three games, Stanton has thrown three touchdowns compared to five interceptions for a horrendous 74.2 quarterback rating. More than that, the Cardinals offense has tallied 28 points in those three games. No matter how well their now injury-ravaged defense might be playing, that’s just not sustainable.
On tape, it’s pretty bad. Stanton is continually missing open receivers, isn’t displaying any sort of pocket awareness and continues to be harrassed due to a lackluster offensive line performance. These three things factored together lead to an offense that just isn’t clicking. And now going up against three teams that rank in the top 10 in total defense and one (St. Louis that’s playing great football) the issues are going to be vast moving forward.
4. NFC West
We looked at the Cardinals schedule above, but let’s take a gander at the NFC West situation for a second. Arizona holds a one game advantage over a Seahawks squad that controls its destiny in the division. It does so just two weeks removed from Seattle laying the wood against the Cardinals. Realistically speaking, Seattle should be favored to win the division right now.
Then you have the San Francisco 49ers, who are 7-5 on the season and one game out of a playoff spot. Despite a pathetic recent performance against Seattle, we have to believe the 49ers will bound back against an Oakland Raiders team that just lost 52-0 to the Rams. The two also play Week 17 in Santa Clara, which could actually be an elimination game for both clubs.
There is a real possibility that Arizona could be either tied with Seattle or one game up on both Pete Carroll’s squad and the 49ers heading into Week 15. That will make the final three games extremely interesting in the NFC West.
Looking at it through a conference lens, it’s likely going to take 11 wins to guarantee a playoff spot. If Arizona were to drop three of its final four (a real possibility) it would need some help as it relates to the other contending teams in the conference.
The Doomsday Scenario
Arizona loses three of its final four games and misses out on the playoffs as a 10-6 team for the second consecutive season. In this scenario, Arizona might hold the tiebeaker against the 49er (assuming they lose in Seattle). It would also hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over both Detroit and Dallas, who are currently one game behind Arizona in the conference.
So why the doomsday scenario?
Three-way ties for a wild card spot don’t necessarily factor into the equation head-to-head tiebreakers. The primary tiebreaker here, which would disclude the 49ers, could very well play a major role as it relates to Arizona going up a gainst Detroit and Dallas. The NFL takes into account the best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference, not head-to-head meetings. Assuming Arizona loses three of its next four, this would mean that it would end the regular season with a minimum of four conference losses. Detroit is currently 6-2 with Dallas 5-4 in the conference. It just gets convoluted from there.
So, in order for the Cardinals to guarantee themselves a spot in the postseason they would have to finish with two wins in their final four games. Based on the level of competition in those four games and Arizona’s recent play, that seems like a pipe dream right now.
The real doomsday scenario at hand here is Arizona actually losing its final four games to finish the regular year 9-7 and losers of six in a row. A month ago, this would have seemed unthinkable. But as it stands right now, a real possibility exists that this might happen. It’s now up to Bruce Arians’ squad to take care of business on the field and not even focus on the scenarios I mentioned above. If that happens, the Cardinals will be able to fend off what looks to be a perfect storm that’s standing in the way of them earning a playoff spot.
Photo: Boston Globe
