Scrambling for a long-term solution under center ever since Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement from the NFL back in 2019, the Indianapolis Colts haven’t been able to identify a replacement since. Yet, after agreeing to trade their third-round pick for former NFL MVP Matt Ryan, coach Frank Reich likely finally believed their stressful days without a top quarterback were done.
Only, as we’ve seen evidence of through the first seven weeks of the season, that hasn’t been the case. Instead, Ryan has struggled greatly, leading the Colts to a 3-3-1 record that includes two losses to Tennessee, a loss to Jacksonville, and even a tie with Houston. Being that these are the three teams in Indianapolis’s division, it’s not a good look.
Yet NFL scouts are quick to suggest the Colts fanbase shouldn’t retain much hope for a late-season turnaround from Matty Ice. Instead, they suggest the former All-Pro QB’s throwing arm is “shot” according to Albert Breer of NFL Network. The local Colts fanbase would quickly agree.
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Advanced stats show more of Matt Ryan’s struggles
Aside from Michael Pittman, it’s true that the Colts lack proven pass catchers and have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Still, we’ve seen Ryan do more with less in the past. Only that hasn’t been the case since touching down in Indianapolis. Instead, Ryan leads the NFL with nine interceptions and has fumbled 11 times, leading a Colts offense that averages the fourth-fewest points per game.
But these are all easy to decipher. The advanced stats tell an even more worrisome tale. Sure, Ryan has three games over 300 passing yards already this season, but he also is posting a career low ‘intended air yards per pass attempt’ averaging 5.7 per throw. This is a drastic reduction from past seasons, but the trend started last year in Atlanta.
| Year | Intended air yards per pass attempt |
| 2018 | 8.6 |
| 2019 | 8.1 |
| 2020 | 8.5 |
| 2021 | 7.1 |
| 2022 | 5.7 |
Does this one stat tell the whole story? No, stats never do but based on this measure, plus the eye test, and it’s not hard to see Ryan’s lost a bit on his fastball at the age of 37. While Colts fans may not like seeing the offense struggle so much, chances are Nick Foles and Sam Ehlinger couldn’t do much better behind this shoddy offensive line.
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