
Sam Darnold entered January as an NFL MVP candidate with many arguing the Minnesota Vikings should franchise tag him to prevent him from reaching NFL free agency. Following a two-game collapse in the team’s biggest games of the season, the 27-year-old quarterback has cost himself dearly.
With home-field advantage on the line in Week 18 against the Detroit Lions, Darnold completed just 43.9 percent of his passes with 2 sacks and averaged 4.0 yards per attempt in a 31-9 loss to the Detroit Lions. A week later in the NFL Wild Card Round against the Los Angeles Rams, he had 2 turnovers with 9 sacks taken and an abysmal 13.6 ESPN QBR in a 27-9 loss.
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- Sam Darnold stats (ESPN): 4,319 passing yards, 35-12 TD-INT, 7.9 ypa, 102.5 QB rating, 66.2% completion rate, 48 sacks taken
In two weeks, Darnold went from a pending free agent who many projected to land a multi-year contract worth $45-plus million per season to a quarterback with a lot more skeptics around the league. It also raised significant questions about whether or not the Vikings would bring him back in 2025.
Senior NFL reporter Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports shared on Friday’s episode of the Inside Coverage podcast that the current expectation is Darnold won’t be back with Minnesota in 2025.
“I don’t think they’re going to be inclined to franchise Sam Darnold. I don’t think they’re going to be inclined to do a long-term deal with him. I think J.J. McCarthy is what they’re going to move forward with…unless there is some kind of severe discount to bringing Sam Darnold back.”
Charles Robinson on Sam Darnold’s future with the Minnesota Vikings
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Robinson noted the other exception would be if there is a concerning development setback with McCarthy’s recovery from a torn meniscus. The first-round pick did undergo a second knee surgery in November, per ESPN, with a procedure that resulted in a “biologic injection” meant to reduce swelling in the knee.
Outside of that, it would seemingly take Darnold hitting the open market and finding the contract offers are well below what he is seeking. Even then, though, he would presumably face competition from a healthy McCarthy to be the Vikings quarterback in 2025.
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One factor Darnold will have to weigh is the supporting cast of the team he signs with. Potential landing spots like the Pittsburgh Steelers, Las Vegas Raiders and the Tennesee Titans all have far worse receiving corps than Minnesota does and the offensive lines with a majority of those clubs would magnify his issues vs pressure.
For now, the expectation is that McCarthy will be the Vikings starting quarterback next season with Darnold landing a multi-year deal to play for an AFC team. If offseason reports on McCarthy’s surgically-repaired knee aren’t promising, however, then a return to Minnesota becomes much likelier.
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