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NFL scouts reveal where Michael Penix Jr is expected to be drafted in 2024, including an alarming worst-case scenario

Michael Penix Jr
Credit: Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports

Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. walked off the field after the College Football Playoff Semifinal generating massive buzz as a potential top-12 pick in the NFL Draft. Just a few weeks later, it appears the Heisman Trophy runner-up will be picked a lot later than that.

After lighting up the Texas Longhorns defense and sending Washington to the national championship game, many wondered if Penix Jr could have a C.J. Stroud-like playoff run. However, the 6-foot-3 quarterback had a letdown performance against the Michigan Wolverines in the national title game.

  • Michael Penix Jr stats 2023: 4,648 passing yards, 35-9 TD-INT, 85.7 ESPN QBR, 66.7% completion

Related: Surprise QB outdueled Michael Penix Jr at Senior Bowl

Facing the best defense in college football, with NFL concepts used by defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, Washington’s senior signal-caller completed just 27-of-51 attempts with 2 interceptions and a 52.9 percent completion rate. With an opportunity to improve his draft stock at the Senior Bowl, Penix instead struggled with inconsistency.

Amid a growing consensus around the league of there being a wide gap between the top three quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels), it appears the Huskies’ star is even further back from the top passers than after the CFP Semifinal.

Related: Michael Penix Jr. may dramatically plummet in 2024 NFL Draft

Speaking to NFL scouts, ESPN’s Jeff Legwold found the wide draft range Penix Jr. will be dealing with heading into the NFL Combine.

“If he clears the medicals, or a team’s doctors don’t have concerns, I could see a team like that coming back into the first round or something. But for me, again, there’s a lot of work to be done.”

Anonymous NFL general manager on Washington Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr.

Related: 2024 NFL Draft order, picks by team

In a best-case scenario, some scouts believe that if Penix Jr. checks out medically at the NFL Combine and performs well in drills then he could be picked at the end of Round 1. However, many scouts and general managers are less optimistic in that outcome.

Most believe the Maxwell Award winner and first-team All-American will likely be drafted on Day 2, potentially somewhere within the first 50 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft. If teams leave the NFL Scouting Combine with medical red flags on him, however, Penix Jr. reportedly may fall to Day 3.

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