Las Vegas Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce hopes history repeats itself somewhat. He needs a solid finish to secure his job going into the offseason.
Last year, Pierce benched Jimmy Garoppolo for Aidan O’Connell, and the team went 5-4 on his watch as an interim head coach.
This year, O’Connell will take over the starting position in different circumstances. He likely would’ve been the starter if not for an injury. In Week 7, O’Connell broke his thumb early in a game against the Los Angeles Rams. He went on injured reserve for a month, but he’s back on the practice field this week.
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In Las Vegas’ previous outing, Gardner Minshew broke his collarbone after he took a sack late in the fourth quarter. Needless to say, he will miss the remainder of the season. According to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, O’Connell took first-team reps last Monday, and the team is preparing him to play against the Kansas City Chiefs on Friday.
The Raiders don’t see Desmond Ridder as a viable starter. Coming out of their Week 10 bye, they chose to start Minshew despite benching him three times in two months.
Now, the team reportedly prefers O’Connell, who will have his fourth play-caller in two years, over Ridder, who’s filled in for Minshew twice and has been with the team since October.
Like last year, the Raiders have struggled to score more than 20 points. Interim offensive coordinator Scott Turner’s play-calling has given the offense a slight boost, but Pierce indicated that the team has a quarterback issue, which has been clear to everyone since the offseason.
Can O’Connell give the Raiders’ passing attack a boost? Let’s break down where he could struggle and shine and what’s in front of him for the final six weeks of the season.
Where Aidan O’Connell could struggle
The Raiders must be really confident in O’Connell’s ability to pick up Turner’s offense or extremely concerned about Ridder’s ability to execute in the system, even with a full week of practice with the starters.
Either way, the coaching staff has dealt O’Connell a tough hand to play. After a month on injured reserve, he could start against the reigning champions on the road in a standalone game.
In a short week, O’Connell has to pick up his fourth system in two years. And prepare for a division rival who probably didn’t forget about an embarrassing loss to the Silver and Black on Christmas Day last year. In that game, O’Connell didn’t complete a pass after the first quarter, but he faces a weaker pass defense this year. Kansas City ranks 18th in passing yards allowed and only one defender on the roster has multiple interceptions.
On Friday, O’Connell won’t face a secondary that forces turnovers or stifles passing attacks. But he will learn on the fly, which is a difficult challenge. Don’t be surprised if O’Connell has some miscommunications with his pass-catchers on some sequences, even though he’s played with a few of them for two years.
Because of O’Connell’s lack of mobility, the Raiders can’t have a bad day in the trenches. The Chiefs don’t have a ball-hawking secondary, but they’re third in pressure rate (27 percent). Rookie third-rounder DJ Glaze has played well in spots, but he’s allowed four pressures in each of the last three weeks, per Pro Football Focus.
After Week 13, the Raiders won’t face another defense that ranks higher than 17th in pressure rate, which may allow O’Connell to settle into the offense.
Where Aidan O’Connell could shine
In the last five weeks of the season, the Raiders will face four opponents who rank near the bottom in pressure rate. The Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Los Angeles Chargers are among the bottom four in that defensive metric. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 19th. Among those teams, the Buccaneers are the only club with a high blitz rate (eighth).
After going against a Chiefs defense that’s second in blitz rate, O’Connell should be prepared for the Buccaneers and the low-pressure units in the following weeks.
While it’s unrealistic to expect O’Connell to light up vulnerable defenses as he picks up a new offense, don’t be surprised if he moves the ball efficiently between Weeks 15 and 18 against teams that struggle to push the pocket. Some may see solid performances down the stretch as a little too late to improve his resume. So O’Connell could make a case for himself as the primary backup next year.
Could Aidan O’Connell be the primary backup quarterback in 2025?
Minshew isn’t a lock to remain in Las Vegas. While his dead cap hit would be $7.7 million if the Raiders release him before June 1, per Over the Cap, changes in Las Vegas could scramble the quarterback depth chart with a rookie possibly on the way in 2025.
Because of the uncertainty around Pierce and his staff, Minshew could see his way out of Las Vegas like Garoppolo’s exit–following arguably his worst statistical pro season. General manager Tom Telesco signed Minshew and could retain him. But the coaching staff may have a new vision with O’Connell or another veteran in the backup spot.
That said, O’Connell can put himself in a position to surpass Minshew on the depth chart with quality starts in the next six weeks.
While some Raider fans are thinking about tanking for a higher draft pick and a chance for the team to draft a blue-chip prospect, O’Connell must be thinking about showcasing his best despite the circumstances in an audition for the Telesco and 31 other general managers across the league.
Maurice Moton covers the Raiders for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.
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