As the Las Vegas Raiders compete to win on the football field, many fans are eyeing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 draft. This week, the Raiders’ matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars can shake up the order.
If you factor in the entire 272-game schedule, the Raiders would have the No. 1 overall pick over the New York Giants because of a weaker strength of schedule.
ESPN doesn’t factor in the complete schedule, only up to the current week, which is why anyone using its draft projections notes that the Giants currently have the No. 1 overall pick.
Regardless of where you get your draft projection information, the Raiders’ upcoming game with the Jaguars has significant implications regarding the order.
Jacksonville is in the No. 4 slot with a 3-11 record. So, if the Raiders win this weekend, they would at least slip behind the Jaguars in the draft order, pulling them further away from taking a top quarterback in the class.
Of course, there are several other factors in place, with four other three-win teams in action on Sunday: the New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans, and Cleveland Browns.
Let’s break down the basics of a win or loss to the Jaguars and what it could mean for the Raiders’ draft plans.
Related: New Las Vegas Raiders rumors paint worrying picture about Antonio Pierce’s management style
If the Las Vegas Raiders lose to the Jaguars
If the Raiders lose to the Jaguars, fans with dreams of drafting Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward can exhale in relief.
The Raiders would remain in the No. 1 spot when you factor in the entire schedule, and they wouldn’t face a team worse than the Jaguars (based on the standings) in the last two weeks of the season.
Though the New Orleans Saints fired Dennis Allen in November, they’re 3-2 under interim head coach Darren Rizzi. Also, the team hasn’t placed quarterback Derek Carr (left hand/concussion) on injured reserve. Though NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport says it’s “unlikely,” Carr could be back in action against the Raiders next week.
Sources: #Saints QB Derek Carr underwent further examination recently and he’s at least a few weeks away from being able to withstand contact. With 3 weeks remaining, a return this season is described as very unlikely.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 17, 2024
Carr has been out with a left hand fractured in two places. pic.twitter.com/YKT5Gmz8cL
In Week 18, the Los Angeles Chargers may be competing with the Denver Broncos for the No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the playoffs. So, they could play their starters in that game.
Any fan hates to see their team lose, especially an 11th-straight game, but a loss on Sunday would keep the Raiders in a position to draft a top quarterback prospect and potentially the best pick of the class.
Related: Where do the Las Vegas Raiders end up in our latest NFL defense rankings?
If the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Jaguars
As mentioned, Las Vegas would at least fall behind Jacksonville with a victory on Sunday.
Remember, professional players and coaches don’t tank, and Antonio Pierce is trying to keep his job. If the Raiders go 2-15, he will probably get his walking papers.
The Raiders will host a three-win Jaguars team led by backup quarterback Mac Jones. This is the most winnable game on their remaining schedule. Like Pierce, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson’s future is uncertain. One has to wonder if the Jaguars show signs of apathy in the final three weeks, which hasn’t been an issue for the Raiders.
Because of strength of schedule, the Raiders would fall to No. 7 in the draft order with a win over the Jaguars, even if the following 3-11 teams lose:
- Giants lose to the Atlanta Falcons
- Patriots lose to the Buffalo Bills
- Panthers lose to the Arizona Cardinals
- Titans lose to the Indianapolis Colts
- Browns lose to the Cincinnati Bengals
As of Tuesday, all five teams listed above are underdogs by at least four points in Week 16. Las Vegas (+1) is in a near pick ’em game with Jacksonville via DraftKings.
Of course, if the Giants, Patriots, Panthers, Titans, or Browns win, the Raiders wouldn’t fall to the No. 7 spot. Still, any slot beyond the No. 2 pick removes the guarantee that the team will have a shot at one of the top two quarterback prospects, which leads to an intriguing aftermath scenario.
Related: Where do the Las Vegas Raiders land in our latest offense rankings?
Trading with the Jaguars to move up for a quarterback?
If the Raiders are willing to move up for either Sanders or Ward, they could make a deal with the Patriots, who are currently in the No. 3 spot and would move up to No. 2 if Las Vegas wins on Sunday, or the Jaguars.
Assuming Tom Telesco retains his general manager position, Raider fans may be skeptical about his desire to make a big move in the order because of his lack of wheeling and dealing for draft picks over the past decade.
Nonetheless, the dropoff between Sanders, Ward, and the rest of the 2025 quarterback prospects could spur action if the Raiders are set on taking a signal-caller early in Round 1.
Moreover, neither the Patriots nor the Jaguars have a need at quarterback and have invested premium capital in that position this year.
New England selected quarterback Drake Maye with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 draft, and he’s shown flashes on a team bereft of offensive talent.
This past offseason, Jacksonville signed quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million extension.
Between the Patriots and Jaguars, the team that misses out on 2024 Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter will likely be open to moving back for a treasure chest of draft picks.
The Raiders should at least explore the possibility of moving up if they win on Sunday. Their short-term viability will depend on addressing the quarterback position.
Last week, owner Mark Davis told reporters he doesn’t have a mandate to draft a quarterback in 2025, but the team “clearly needs to find an answer at the position.”
With an aggressive trade proposal, Sanders or Ward could be the solution to the Raiders’ quarterback issue.
Maurice Moton covers the Raiders for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.