You probably read the headline and took a glance at the Las Vegas Raiders depth chart. A couple of thoughts should come to mind. While the team has depth in the backfield, the grand-canyon-sized drop-off between Josh Jacobs and the No. 2 running back underlines the 2022 rushing champion’s importance to the offense.
Last offseason, head coach Josh McDaniels remodeled the running back room, bringing Brandon Bolden with him from the New England Patriots, signing Ameer Abdullah and drafting Zamir White and Brittain Brown in the fourth and seventh rounds, respectively. The club also signed Sincere McCormick, who went undrafted out of UTSA, and Austin Walter.
Despite the handful of additions at running back, Jacobs totted the ball 340 times for 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns. He also caught 53 passes for 400 yards.
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In a true workhorse role, Jacobs looked as healthy as ever and suited up for every game in the 2022 season while the backups barely touched the ball. Bolden, White and Abdullah recorded a combined 38 carries for 156 scoreless yards.
McDaniels rode the hot hand at running back, but in doing so, he provided Jacobs a little bit of leverage.
Last week, Jacobs posted a cryptic tweet that indicates he may play hardball with the Raiders for a new contract and the running backs who will seek appropriate deals for their production after him.
Jimmy Garoppolo needs Josh Jacobs
Sure, many people will tell you that a team can pluck a middle-to-late-round running back out of any collegiate program to replace their starter. While clubs have done that, the Raiders don’t know what they have in White, Brown or McCormick in regular-season action.
Perhaps McDaniels could’ve plugged White, Brown and McCormick into the offense for solid production out of a committee of ball-carriers, but the Raiders needed someone to carry that offense as quarterback Derek Carr struggled to move the ball in 2022.
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This year, the Raiders have to keep quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo healthy. Aside from a stout offensive line, he needs a complementary ground attack and a solid defense. While Vegas may not be able to provide the latter in the upcoming campaign, the front office should think twice about considering a future without its lead rusher.
In two out of five seasons with the San Francisco 49ers, Garoppolo played 15 or more contests and helped lead the club to at least the NFC Championship Game. In those campaigns (2019 and 2021), the 49ers had a top-nine scoring defense and finished 29th in pass attempts while ranking within the top five in total carries.
In Garoppolo’s most successful years with the 49ers, he had a top-tier defense and threw the ball fewer times than most of the other starting quarterbacks around the league. McDaniels should take note of that.
If the Raiders want to create a system that allows Garoppolo to succeed, Jacobs has to be part of the plan until they find a viable replacement. Because the team hasn’t fielded a respectable defense in points and yards allowed in nearly 20 years, it may have to lean on an effective ground attack to control the clock, which would limit opposing offenses.
Averaging 4.4 yards per carry for his career, Jacobs can keep the clock moving when his defense needs a breather or struggles to get off the field. Can McDaniels say the same about a platoon of running backs led by White, who has 17 career carries, or Bolden, who turned 33 years old in January? Probably not.
Because McDaniels committed to an injury-prone quarterback who’s not accustomed to carrying an offense with his arm, he needs a quality ground attack. White may become a solid starter, Brown or McCormick could turn out to be unheralded gems, but they didn’t have a chance to show a slight glimpse of their potential behind Jacobs last season.
New quarterback, similar rushing plan
As New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley said about offenses around the league, every team doesn’t have Patrick Mahomes or a roster overflowing with talent like the Philadelphia Eagles.
He’s right.
Some teams need a top-tier running back, and the Raiders fall into that category this year. Wideouts Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow and perhaps rookie tight end Michael Mayer will pose a threat to opposing pass defenses, but Garoppolo hasn’t averaged 30 pass attempts per game in a single season. Don’t expect McDaniels to unleash him in a high-volume pass attack.
As we’ve seen in his years with the 49ers, Garoppolo fits well with an offense that doesn’t ask him to throw 35-plus times. He’s more effective when efficient as opposed to slinging the ball all over the field, which allows the ground attack to wear down defensive fronts.
If McDaniels plans to field an offense that operates at an optimal level, he needs Jacobs in the backfield. Of course, the Raiders can move on with a group of unproven backups and a couple of veterans who are 30 years or older in Bolden and Abdullah, but you should expect a less productive rushing attack and exercise patience with young running backs who must learn to pass protect in addition to their roles as ball-carriers.
Keep in mind that the Dallas Cowboys watched 2019 fourth-rounder Tony Pollard develop for four years before the team parted ways with Ezekiel Elliott. Minnesota Vikings running back Alexander Mattison, who’s a third-rounder from the 2019 draft, spent years in a backup role, and he’s just now slated to replace Dalvin Cook in 2023.
When the Pittsburgh Steelers transitioned from Le’Veon Bell to James Conner, they had two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who went on to lead the league in completions, pass attempts and yards in the first year without his All-Pro running back. Garoppolo isn’t the quarterback to take over an offense in that fashion. Moreover, his lack of durability may not allow him to do it.
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The Raiders should exhaust all options in trying to retain Jacobs on a multiyear deal if he refuses to sign the $10.1 million franchise tag. They have until the July 17 deadline to work out an agreement with him. If not, Jacobs’ counter plan of action could lead to a change of scenery, which would be a big blow to the offense and leadership core in the locker room.
Maurice Moton covers the Raiders for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.