The Kansas City Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl champions and quickly emerging as one of the best NFL dynasties ever. While a majority of their core is signed to long-term deals, a few of the Chiefs’ top players could walk in free agency next year.
All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones and top cornerback L’Jarius Sneed are poised to be free agents in 2024. While both want to remain in Kansas City, the open market will present lucrative opportunities. It’s why extending Jones and Sneed this summer will likely be priorities.
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While Patrick Mahomes is under contract through 2031, his age-36 season, the franchise recognizes his contract needs to be reworked. Years after signing a $450 million contract extension, Mahomes now ranks seventh amongst the highest-paid NFL quarterbacks.
Keeping all of that in mind, let’s dive into our contract projections for Jones, Mahomes and Sneed.
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Chris Jones contract extension projection
Jones was already one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL entering the 2022 season. It’s the game-wrecking stretch he went on in the second half of the year that made him a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and the second-best defensive tackle in the NFL.
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Over his final nine games, Jones recorded 20 quarterback hits with 11 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. Unsurprisingly, Kansas City went 8-1 during that stretch and he carried that performance into the playoff. Jones is the second-most important player on the Chiefs’ roster. This spring, many of his peers with less production signed contract extensions worth at least $22.5 million per season with $50-plus million fully guaranteed. The highest-graded defensive tackle in the NFL (92.3 PFF grade) last season merits a contract that resets the market for all players not named Aaron Donald.
Jones’ representatives should push for even higher than a $25 million AAV, which New York Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is reportedly seeking. Strengthening his case, Jones’ 97 total pressures ranked third among all defensive players only behind Micah Parsons and Nick Bosa. Considering those are edge rushers headed for deals worth a $30 million AAV, a $28.3 million average salary for Jones works. The deal, which makes Jones the second highest-paid defensive lineman in the NFL, will be tacked on to keep him in Kansas City for the next four years.
- Chris Jones contract prediction: 3 years, $85 million ($65 million guaranteed)
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L’Jarius Sneed contract projection
While Kansas City doesn’t have one of the best secondaries in the NFL, L’Jarius Sneed has proven his value to this organization. Drafted with the 138th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Sneed earned PFWA All-Rookie Team honors in 2020 and has since become an integral part of this unit’s success at multiple positions.
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As a primary slot corner in 2021, Sneed earned a solid 64.1 overall PFF grade, but did struggle at times in coverage (102.2 QB rating allowed, four touchdowns). Moved to the perimeter last season, he held opponents to a 53.4 quarterback rating when targeted and surrendered just one touchdown on 45 targets.
Sneed has proven to be a versatile cornerback who can hold his own in the slot or on the boundary and he can be deployed as a blitzer (10 QB hits, 6.5 sacks in career). Based on the Rasul Douglas deal in 2022 ($21 million over three years) and Byron Murphy’s contract from the spring ($17.5 million over two years), a three-year deal with a $9 million AAV fits here.
- L’Jarius Sneed extension prediction: 3 years, $27 million ($15 million guaranteed)
Patrick Mahomes contract prediction
It’s evident that Mahomes is in no rush to sign a deal. After winning two Super Bowls before he turned 28 years old, the two-time MVP is focused on winning more championships. However, even the Chiefs recognize that something needs to be done.
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Mahomes signed the largest contract in NFL history in July 2020, a 10-year deal with a maximum value of $503 million. It made him the highest-paid passer in the NFL, briefly. Since the ink dried on that contract, three quarterbacks signed multi-year deals worth more than $50 million per season. By the time Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert sign their extensions, Mahomes will rank ninth among the highest-paid quarterbacks.
Assuming Burrow and Herbert sign extensions worth more than $51 million per season, the bar for Mahomes should be much higher. With two Super Bowl MVPs and on pace to shatter NFL passing records, he’s on a trajectory to become one of the three best quarterbacks in NFL history.
In a perfect world, Mahomes could tack on an extension with his salary designated as a percentage of the NFL salary cap rather than a strict salary. However, a deal of that nature is unprecedented. Instead, the Chiefs could add three years onto his existing deal with attached dead years to lower his cap hits in the next three seasons.
It would be an agreement that makes everyone happy. Mahomes helps the Chiefs maintain their Super Bowl window and opens up more cap space for Jones and Sneed to be extended. Meanwhile, the NFL Players Association and other quarterbacks get a new benchmark for future contract negotiations.
- Patrick Mahomes extension prediction: $165 million over three years