Scott Gulbransen
Three races into 2026, the Formula 1 pecking order is clear: Mercedes is first, Ferrari is second, everyone else is trying to figure out how to close the gap. But this 2026 Miami Grand Prix isn’t a normal weekend. With new regulations, a completely new McLaren and an 88% chance of thunderstorms on Sunday, the order is about to be tested.
Here are our three picks.
P1: Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes
Kimi Antonelli has to be the default pick. Until someone proves otherwise, Antonelli is the answer.
Three races in, the 19-year-old has two wins, two pole positions, and 72 points. He leads the championship by nine points and has been impressive in these new cars. Mercedes has won every race this season and has been the class of the field thus far. The new mid-season regulation package that hits Miami this weekend doesn’t change that baseline — if anything, it gives Mercedes one more area to be better prepared than everyone else, having already optimized their energy deployment at three race weekends while rivals are still catching up.
More to the point: Antonelli doesn’t make mistakes on Sundays. Australia was a recovery drive. China was a controlled win from pole. Japan was a botched start recovered through strategy brilliance and pace. At every turn where things could have gone sideways, they didn’t. The 19-year-old from Bologna is the pick until the race proves otherwise.
The only caveat is Sunday’s weather. AccuWeather has an 88% chance of rain and a 53% chance of thunderstorms at race time. If it rains hard and stays wet, all bets are off. If it stays dry or dries out after an early shower, Antonelli wins this race.
P2: Charles Leclerc | Ferrari
Ferrari has been the second-fastest team at every round so far, and Charles Leclerc has been the better Ferrari driver so far. That combination puts him firmly on the podium here.
He was third in China and was competitive in Japan before strategy and traffic cost him. He is outqualifying Hamilton 3-0 this season and has eight points on him in the standings. Ferrari’s SF-26 is a genuine car — podium at all three rounds, second in the constructors’ championship — and Miami’s layout suits Leclerc’s driving style. Strong under braking, precise through high-speed sections, aggressive when he needs to be.
If Mercedes runs into any reliability issues, and these are still early days with the complicated new power units, Leclerc is the man positioned to capitalize. He doesn’t need things to go wrong elsewhere. He just needs a clean weekend, which he’s delivered more often than not this year.
P3 (Upset Pick): Oscar Piastri | McLaren
This one requires buying into a lot of things going right at once. Here’s why it’s worth buying into.
McLaren team principal Andrea Stella has described the car arriving in Miami as “completely new” from an aerodynamics standpoint, with front and rear brake ducts, bodywork, floor, and rear wing all changed simultaneously. The team has also made a self-described significant step forward in understanding how to extract performance from their Mercedes-supplied power unit, closing a gap they openly acknowledged in the early rounds.
This isn’t just PR optimism. Piastri was fighting for the win in Japan before finishing second. That tells us the car is closer than the standings suggest. Add a completely new aerodynamic package specifically designed for this point in the season and it’s a legitimate threat.
Piastri also won here in 2025. He knows this circuit. And McLaren’s strategy team, the best in the paddock when conditions get complicated, has Sunday’s storm forecast working in their favor. A safety car in mixed conditions, a well-timed pit stop, a chaotic restart: that’s exactly the scenario where McLaren turns a P4 into a podium.
Stella himself has tempered expectations, noting the upgrades are aerodynamic and “unlikely to transform the competitive order overnight.” Fair enough. But Piastri on the podium at the 2026 Miami Grand Prix wouldn’t be a surprise. It would be exactly the moment McLaren has been building toward all season.
The Wildcard: George Russell
Russell won the 2026 Australian Grand Prix. He’s nine points behind his teammate with the same car. If Antonelli hits trouble, like a rare mechanical issue, a bad start under the new detection system, a wet lap one incident, or another issue, Russell can win this race outright. He doesn’t make the top three pick only because the math favors his teammate. Not because he isn’t fast enough.
Watch the first lap. In Miami, that usually tells you everything.
