Deebo Samuel is only one of many players on a star-studded San Francisco 49ers roster who’ve been selected to the NFL’s All-Pro team over the past three seasons.
This season Deebo Samuel’s performance, while excellent, didn’t produce the type of numbers that would merit postseason honors. Instead, the accolades went to two other San Francisco 49ers playmakers — running back Christian McCaffrey and receiver Brandon Aiyuk.
Yet Deebo Samuel, who is questionable for Sunday’s NFC Championship Game against the Detroit Lions with a shoulder injury, might be the difference in whether the San Francisco 49ers either advance to their eighth Super Bowl in franchise history or fall one game short of it for the third consecutive season.
Samuel’s status is reportedly “50/50” from a shoulder injury he suffered in the first quarter of last Saturday’s 24-21 NFC divisional round victory over the Green Bay Packers.
There’s substantial reason for the San Francisco 49ers to be concerned if Samuel is unable to play. Here’s why having Deebo Samuel is so important to their chances.
Deebo Samuel’s impact on the San Francisco 49ers offense
Deebo Samuel broke out as an All-Pro performer in 2021, his third NFL season, when he electrified the league as the game’s most versatile offensive weapon.
Dubbing himself a “wide-back” for his versatility as both a receiver and a ball carrier out of the backfield, Samuel wracked up 1,770 yards in total offense to go with 14 touchdowns.
After an off year in 2022 in which he was banged up and not as productive, Samuel has been more like his 2021 self this season (1,118 yards and 12 touchdowns). But the presence of McCaffrey (2,000 total yards, 21 TDs) has cut into Samuel’s touches and overall production, turning him into more of a dangerous secondary option.
Having Deebo Samuel in the lineup gives opposing teams, trying to game-plan against the 49ers offense, too many weapons to defend between him, McCaffrey, Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle.
But if you take Deebo Samuel out of the lineup, opposing defenses have a much greater chance, as the numbers below show for regular-season games this season in which Samuel was unable to either play or finish a game due to injury.
| \ | W/L | Pts./G | Yds./G | Yds./Play |
| 49ers with Deebo Samuel | 12-2 | 31.4 | 436.4 | 7.0 |
| 49ers without Deebo Samuel | 0-3 | 17.0 | 285.3 | 5.5 |
The San Francisco 49ers, who are 8-9 all-time with Deebo Samuel sidelined, statistically don’t have an offense that is much better than the New York Jets. The points and yards numbers would rank the 49ers 28th in the NFL, while the numbers with Deebo make the 49ers an offensive juggernaut.
Related: NFL offense rankings
Deebo Samuel’s impact on Brock Purdy
Although his disastrous Christmas performance against the Baltimore Ravens ruined his chances at the NFL MVP award, Brock Purdy has still played at an MVP level for the majority of his second season.
Purdy’s only other blip besides that four-interception night was a three-game stretch in the first half of the season in which the 49ers dropped three straight games.
What stands out most about the three-game skid? No Deebo Samuel. He played only half of the first quarter in the first game against Cleveland because he suffered a very similar shoulder injury, which then forced him to miss the next two games, losses to Minnesota and Cincinnati.
Here is how Purdy has performed this season with and without Deebo Samuel.
| QB Rating | TD-INT | Completion Rate | YPA | |
| Brock Purdy with Deebo Samuel | 121.68 | 28-6 | 71.1% | 9.9 |
| Brock Purdy without Deebo Samuel | 72.36 | 4-5 | 61.4% | 6.0 |
The Deebo-less QB rating alone would put Purdy somewhere between Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers and Mitchell Trubisky of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Not good.
Related: NFL QB rankings
Solutions if Deebo Samuel is unable to play
Before leading the 49ers on his first NFL game-winning drive against Green Bay, Purdy completed only 15 of 29 passes for 171 yards without Deebo Samuel on the field. Green Bay was able to blanket Aiyuk and Kittle in coverage, giving Purdy fewer creases to deliver the football.
But the decisive fourth-quarter drive should encourage the 49ers in that it revealed how Purdy and a Deebo-less 49ers offense can have success.
Marching the 49ers down the field in the final minutes, Purdy was 6-of-7 passing for 47 yards, with two of the completions going to backup receivers Jauan Jennings and Chris Conley, leading to McCaffrey’s go-ahead TD run.
In particular, Jennings — a big, physical receiver who’s among the best blocking wideouts in the NFL — would be counted on to step up in Samuel’s place. He seemed capable last weekend, with five catches for 61 yards, including a leaping catch in traffic over the middle.
In reality, however, the only 49ers player who can approximate Samuel’s diverse skill set is McCaffrey, and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan could find some creative ways to use McCaffrey’s versatility in Deebo’s absence.
One method would be to insert backup Elijah Mitchell in the backfield and put McCaffrey in more of a Deebo-esque role, spreading him wide as a receiver or motioning him across the formation. Then again, moving McCaffrey around too much might have a negative effect on the 49ers’ running game, where McCaffrey has excelled as the NFL’s rushing leader.
Without question, Shanahan’s play designs and personnel decisions could lead to some favorable matchups against the Lions. Nevertheless, there are no options that give the San Francisco 49ers a greater chance of securing a trip to the Super Bowl than having Deebo Samuel on the field Sunday.