While Week 2 on the college football schedule delivered a few upsets, with a pair of top-15 ranked teams going down, a majority of the nation’s top programs dominated bottom-tier opponents. Fortunately, Saturday’s College Football Week 3 slate delivers some matchups worth getting excited about.
Looking at the top-25 college football schedule this weekend, a few matchups stand out. Clemson vs Georgia Tech, a battle of undefeated teams, and South Florida vs Miami are two very intriguing contests early on Saturday. Rightfully, though, a majority of attention will be centered on Georgia vs Tennessee (3:30 PM ET on ABC) and Texas A&M vs Notre Dame (7:30 PM ET on NBC).
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Let’s dive into our college football predictions for the best games in Week 3.
Clemson Tigers 27, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 20
It hasn’t exactly been a banner start to the season for Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers. An opportunity to prove themselves as a national championship contender was wasted at home in Week 1, in a 17-10 loss where the Tigers’ offense went just 3-for-13 on its third-down attempts. The team seemingly carried that disappointment with them into a matchup versus Troy, falling behind 16-0 midway through the first quarter before rallying for a 27-16 win. As for the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, head coach Brent Key has this program off to a 2-0 start thanks to one of the best rushing offenses in college football. Now they get to host Clemson.
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Clemson has been pretty stout against the run thus far. Entering Week 3, the Tigers’ defense has allowed just 93 rushing yards per game and just a 2.95 yards-per-carry average. LSU running back Caden Durham did break off a 24-yard run, but averaged just 3.1 yards per carry on his other 16 carries. Winning up front will be crucial given that Georgia Tech has the sixth-highest rushing rate (68.12 percent) in the FBS.
On the other side of the ball, the battle in the trenches is also worth watching. Clemson ranks 58th in sack rate allowed (4.62 percent) and allows 4 tackles for loss per game to opponents (31st), while Georgia Tech enters Week 3 with the fifth-most tackles for loss (20) but just a 3.33 percent sack rate. We have Clemson winning by a touchdown, but the Tigers’ offensive line and the potential for an absent run game could result in an upset.
Alabama Crimson Tide 35, Wisconsin Badgers 14
The Alabama Crimson Tide needed a dominant performance in Week 2 to at least get a little confidence back. Facing UL Monroe and putting up 73 points with nearly 600 total yards of offense certainly helped with that. Kalen DeBoer gets a bit of good fortune once again this week, facing a Wisconsin Badgers program that has become a bit of an afterthought in the college football landscape under head coach Luke Fickell.
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Alabama’s defense shouldn’t have much trouble slowing down Badgers quarterback Danny O’Neil, a transfer from San Diego State. When pressured, per Pro Football Focus, his Turnover-Worthy Play rate more than doubles (2.6% to 5.9%), and his QB rating drops by 50 points. Wisconsin’s defense also hasn’t proven particularly effective at generating tackles for loss (6 per game), so there could be a good opportunity here for the Crimson Tide to run the football.
Georgia Bulldogs 28, Tennessee Volunteers 27
The Tennessee Volunteers have looked pretty good heading into Week 3, steamrolling cupcake competition this past Saturday and also beating Syracuse in the opener. However, this defense could be their first undoing on Saturday afternoon, considering that starting cornerbacks Jermod McCoy (ACL tear) and Rickey Gibson III (left arm) will be sidelined.
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It provides this Georgia Bulldogs‘ offense with a golden opportunity. The Bulldocks have done an excellent job keeping quarterback Gunner Stockton’s jersey clean thus far, not allowing a single sack while ranking 19th among teams with 75-plus pass attempts in PFF’s Pass Blocking Efficiency (92.9). From a clean pocket, Stockton has a 78% completion rate this season. The holes at corner could prove costly for Tennessee.
For the Volunteers to overcome that, a lot of pressure rides on the shoulders of head coach Josh Heupel and quarterback Joey Aguilar. The 6-foot-3 senior has performed very well when pressured this season, tying for the FBS lead in touchdowns (3) when under duress with an above-average 8.5 yards per attempt. Playing at Neyland Stadium will help, but we ultimately believe Tennessee’s injury in the secondary will prevent a win.
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Miami Hurricanes 34, South Florida Bulls 13
The South Florida Bulls are riding high after upsetting Boise State and Florida in consecutive weeks. It’s a credit to head coach Alex Golesh, who is helping Byrum Brown (6-foot-3 and 231 pounds) become one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in college football right now. Between those two victories over ranked opponents, though, South Florida’s offense ranked 72nd in third-down conversion rate (36.67 percent) and 46th in points per drive (0.423) while the Bulls’ defense ranks just 54th in yards-per-play allowed (4.8) and 107th in sack rate (2.41 percent).
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It’s why we see the Miami Hurricanes winning this one convincingly in Week 3. Carson Beck has been outstanding this offseason, leading an offense that averages 8.4 yards per attempt and usually dominates time of possession (34 minutes per game). Beck will get this team out to an early lead over South Florida, allowing the Hurricanes’ defense to ramp up the aggressiveness and rattle Brown.
Ole Miss Rebels 38, Arkansas Razorbacks 24
It hasn’t exactly been the crispest start to the season for Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Astin Simmons. While he’s delivering big plays (10.5 yards per attempt), he’s also thrown 4 interceptions and is very hit-and-miss with his ball placement. There’s also a chance that his mobility is a bit limited in Week 3 as he’ll be playing through a left ankle injury suffered against Kentucky. Fortunately, Rebels running back Kewan Lacy is shouldering the load of this offense as Simmons works through growing pains as a first-year starter.
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As for the Arkansas Razorbacks, they are 2-0 on the year after beating up on Alabama A&M and Arkansas State. There’s not a ton that can be taken away from those two games, given the bottom-tier level of competition, but quarterback Taylen Green is already responsible for 11 total touchdowns and 753 total yards of offense in just two games.
We see the Razorbacks’ offense running into a buzz saw early in this matchup. Mississippi has a 6.45 percent sack rate this season, resulting in the eighth-lowest yards per pass attempt (4.4) in the nation with just a 22.58 percent third-down conversion rate allowed.
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LSU Tigers 28, Florida Gators 17
A Week 3 matchup between the Florida Gators and the LSU Tigers under the lights in Death Valley originally seemed like it could be one of the best college football games in the SEC this season. Then, Florida went out and lost at home to South Florida. Meanwhile, LSU is 2-0 but coming off a win over Louisiana Tech that was a little closer than it should’ve been.
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While LSU is only a 9.5-point favorite to win on Saturday night, we’re projecting a blowout. The Gators’ defense had some problems stopping USF’s passing game last week and while Nussmeier isn’t much of a threat to run, he’s outstanding from the pocket and great at attacking the intermediate area of the field (66.7% completion rate and 9.4 yards per attempt). He’ll outduel Florida quarterback DJ Lagway, leading the Tigers to a two-score win at home.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 28, Texas A&M Aggies 20
While the Texas A&M Aggies are 2-0 this season and keep ascending the college football rankings, Mike Elko’s defense is a major question mark for us going into Week 3. While the Aggies’ defense is very effective at generating pressure (9.72% sack rate, 21st in FBS), it ranks 80th in yards-per-carry average allowed (4.1), and opponents average 6.5 rushing first downs and 140.5 rushing yards per game versus Texas A&M. Keep in mind that those two teams were UTSA and Utah State.
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So, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have had two weeks to prepare for a plan of attack that will let running back Jeremiyah Love feast on this Aggies’ run defense. We also really liked what we saw from quarterback CJ Carr in his first start against Miami, which came on the road.
Aggies’ quarterback Marcel Reed—614 total yards of offense and 8 total touchdowns—will at least make things interesting. However, Notre Dame can limit some of the big plays that Texas A&M’s offense relies on to move the football. In the end, it will be Love’s big runs and a strong defensive performance from the Fighting Irish that seal the victory.
