Bubba Wallace is hanging on by a figurative thread.
The 23XI Racing driver arrives at Daytona International Speedway for the NASCAR Cup Series regular season finale with a 32-point advantage over Ty Gibbs for the final playoff spot but that can’t be his only concern either.
Should there be a new winner from a driver not currently on the playoff grid, that competitor would make the field of 16 at the expense of Wallace so everyone faces must-win odds when you look at it holistically:
Chase Elliott
Alex Bowman
AJ Allmendinger
Austin Dillon
Aric Almirola
Ryan Preece
Chase Briscoe
Erik Jones
Justin Haley
Corey Lajoie
For example, Dillon went to victory lane last year in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 facing odds where winning was literally his only option to make the playoffs, an outcome that denied Martin Truex Jr. on championship points.
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“Everyone is in a must-win situation,” Wallace said during a Tuesday media conference. “If you’re not locked in, you’re in a must-win situation when the last race is Daytona.
“We’ve seen surprise winners and no one is safe until the race is over. We’re going to try to do everything right, continue to get stage points, and if there is a new winner, do what we can to make it our 23 car.
“Other than that, everyone is fighting for the same real estate.”
To a certain degree, it’s also just luck, considering that everyone is susceptible to getting taken out in a large multi-car crash at any point of the race. Maybe that crash wipes out Wallace, or Gibbs, or some of the other drivers facing must-win odds.
And then, maybe, it’s a crash that takes our most of the drivers who are already locked-in creating the most drama, or stress, depending on which vantage point you have during the race. All told, there is only so much Wallace can realistically cover throughout the entire 400 miles, even if he hasn’t been taken out.
“You just have to watch who has speed and who is up front,” Wallace said. “When it comes down to the end of the stages, if (Gibbs) is contending for points and we’re riding around in 15th, there’s up to 10 points off our points advantage. If it happens again, now we’re just leading by the teens.
“We just have to be mindful during the race.”
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Bubba Wallace and the Daytona International Speedway
Wallace has a superspeedway in at Talladega in 2021 and generally runs near the front, contending for wins, each time there is a race on the pack racing events. To that end, Wallace isn’t planning on changing his strategy because there are playoff stakes.
“When you start doing things different, that’s when mistakes and issues happen,” Wallace said. “I think for myself, Bootie (Barker, crew chief), Freddie (Kraft, spotter) and our engineers, we’ll sit down before the race and come up with a plan but I don’t think it will be too different than what we’ve always done.
“I feel like I have gotten a little bit lazy at superspeedways the past couple of races before Talladega this year, and I’ve wanted to get up on the horse and showcase ourselves, but then we didn’t finish.
“So on Saturday, we have to finish it and as long as there’s no new winner, we’re okay. But we do have to do some points watching as well. We have to be aware of every little thing that’s happening every lap.”
And should Bubba Wallace make the playoffs, he really has a compelling argument that he can make some noise in the tournament this year, because both of his Cup wins have come during the playoffs … but after he had been eliminated from championship contention.
“For some reason, I like to win after the playoffs start but we’re not part of it,” Wallace said. “A win is a win, right, but I do feel like a lot of these tracks suit us well.
“So if we can lock ourselves in, we can do some really great things and it would be a massive pat on the back for everyone at 23XI Racing and their commitment to the team and program.”
And if they, for whichever reason, get eliminated on Saturday night, Wallace is willing to concede that as an equal setback for their team.
“I would be devastated if we don’t make the playoffs,” Wallace said. “I hate that we haven’t won yet to lock ourselves in, but I just have to be mindful. I have people reminding me that we can only control what we can control.
“Our speed has been better this year. We haven’t had as many breakout races compared to last year but we’ve had good consistency around some mistakes that tarnished that. We’re making strides, getting better but nothing is guaranteed so we have to go out there and fight on Saturday, put it all on the line and lock ourselves in.”
Matt Weaver is a Motorsports Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.