The stage is set for the 2024 AFC Championship Game between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. The AFC’s top teams with the reigning NFL MVP and the presumptive 2023 MVP going head-to-head. Our AFC Championship Game preview will tell you everything you need to know before kickoff.
This is familiar territory for Kansas City. The Chiefs have made it to six consecutive AFC title games with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and are now on the doorstep of their fourth Super Bowl appearance with Andy Reid. As for Baltimore, the best team in the NFL all year now has an opportunity to strengthen its legacy as one of the most dominant teams in years.
Related: NFC Championship Game preview
Let’s dive into our 2024 AFC Championship Game preview for the Chiefs vs Ravens.
AFC Championship Game preview: Chiefs vs Ravens matchups
Kansas City Chiefs offensive line vs Baltimore Ravens defensive line
Similar to the NFC title bout, our first focus in the AFC title game is the battle between the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive line and the Baltimore Ravens defensive front. What makes this matchup particularly intriguing is how Kansas City’s front five has performed this season.
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The Chiefs finished the season ranked 18th in PFF’s offensive line rankings. At a time when a majority of NFL teams build their lines with quality offensive tackles as the starting point, Kansas City takes a different approach. The Chiefs’ interior linemen are among the best in the NFL, but Baltimore can attack the edges.
| Pass-Block Win Rate | Run Block Win Rate | Pass Blocking Efficiency | Pressure Rate Allowed | ||
| Chiefs OL | 77% (1st) | 70% (20th) | 84.9 (14th) | 27.9% | |
| Pass Rush Win Rate | Run Stop Win Rate | Sack Rate | Pressure Rate | ||
| Ravens pass rush | 46% (9th) | 30% (24th) | 8.6% (4th) | 19.5% (27th) |
First-team All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, Pro Bowl center Creed Humphrey and standout guard Trey Smith protect Mahomes from the interior pass rush. Humphrey posted the fourth-highest Pass pass-blocking efficiency (98.7) among centers, while Thuney (99% PBWR) and Smith (97% PBWR) were two of the best pass-protecting guards in the NFL.
On the other side, Baltimore is almost just as talented. All-Pro defensive tackle Justin Madubuike posted the fourth-highest Pass Rushing Productivity (8.4) with the 10th-best win rate (14.4 percent). Kansas City has the interior linemen to limit Madubuike’s effectiveness, but Baltimore has its own advantage.
Chiefs’ offensive tackles Donovan Smith – 42 pressures, 7 QB hits allowed with 9 penalties called – and Jawaan Taylor (47 pressures, 5 sacks allowed and 20 penalties called) are the weak points on this offensive line.
Baltimore won’t blitz a ton (21.9% blitz rate, 25th in NFL), but Jadeveon Clowney (71 pressures, 9.5 sacks), Kyle Van Noy (48 pressures, 9 sacks) and Odafe Oweh (71 pressures, 5 sacks) have a golden opportunity to exploit the biggest weakness on the Chiefs’ offensive line. Expect the Chiefs to use a lot of 13 personnel (two TEs).
Patrick Mahomes vs Mike Macdonald’s defense
Mike Macdonald is the best defensive coordinator in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes is the best NFL quarterback right now. A matchup of two of the best at their respective positions makes for a fantastic matchup. What separates this as one of the things we’re most excited about, arguably one of the best matchups of the season, is how it will truly be Mahomes vs Macdonald.
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The aforementioned battle in the trenches does have an obvious impact on this. One interesting element is the contrast between Mahomes’ numbers when pressured historically, this past season and in the playoffs. The MVP’s numbers this postseason are outstanding, right on pace with his 2022 stats. However, he was noticeably less efficient during the 2023 regular season with pressure in his face.
| Patrick Mahomes stats vs pressure | QB Rating | YPA | TD % – INT % | Adj. Completion % | PFF grade |
| 2022 season | 77.8 (9th) | 6.5 (7th) | 12.6% (14) – 3.1% (7) | 67.4% (8th) | 74.0 (2nd) |
| 2023 season | 60.7 (25th) | 6.3 (13th) | 2.4% (5) – 3.9% (8) | 68.4% (7th) | 75.2 (2nd) |
| 2023 playoffs | 71.0 (6th) | 7.6 (3rd) | 0-0 | 83.3% (1st) | 91.0 (1st) |
This is going to be a chess match of Mahomes’ mind and unprecedented ability versus Macdonald’s scheme and personnel. Baltimore’s defense bost first-team All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith and safety Kyle Hamilton, both of whom can provide shutdown coverage and playmaking. In the secondary, Macdonald will also have Geno Stone, Marcus Williams, Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Stephens roaming around.
- Baltimore Ravens pass defense: 74.6 QB rating allowed (1st), 191.9 pass ypg allowed (6th), 2.8% pass TD rate allowed (1st), 60.6% completion rate allowed (5th), 4.7 net yards per attempt (1st)
Related: NFL QB rankings
Macdonald’s scheme and confusing looks have created problems for the best quarterbacks in football. C.J. Stroud (72.2 QB rating), Brock Purdy (44.7 QB rating), Jared Goff (66 QB rating), Justin Herbert (73.4 QB rating) and Trevor Lawrence (83.3 QB rating) all struggled against this unit.
Mahomes’ playmaking gives him a rare advantage over the other quarterbacks and he’s demonstrated a greater willingness to scramble for some big runs this season. Unfortunately for hm, that’s out of necessity because of this Chiefs’ receiving corps.
| Player | Yards per Route Run | Contested Catch Rate | True Catch Rate | Route Win Rate |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0.74 (95th) | 20% (92nd) | 77.8% (96th) | 40.7% (94th) |
| Justin Watson | 1.39 (59th) | 50% (20th) | 75% (99th) | 42.1% (82nd) |
| Kadarius Toney | 1.19 (71st) | N/A | 79.4% (95th) | 47.9% (43rd) |
| Rashee Rice | 2.52 (10th) | 25% (87th) | 88.8% (52nd) | 53% (13th) |
Baltimore’s secondary holds massive advantages over the Chiefs’ receiving corps. The Ravens’ cornerbacks should have little trouble giving extra attention to Rice, because Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney pose no real threat. As for Travis Kelce, that’s where Hamilton, Smith and Patrick Queen come into play. Mahomes has to overcome all of this, but we’ve seen him do it before.
Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards vs Chiefs run defense
Jackson’s passing is the biggest reason why he’s NFL MVP this year and he remains one of the most underrated quarterbacks from the pocket in the NFL. With that said, it’s the ground game that offers the best path to a Ravens’ victory.
- Kansas City Chiefs run defense: 4.5 yards per carry allowed (8th-highest), 113.2 rush ypg allowed (18th), -22.78 EXP (28th), 27% run-stop win rate (32nd)
While Jackson and Buffalo Bills quarterback Jackson Allen are different versions of runners, Kansas City did just allow 72 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns to Allen in the Divisional Round. Not only that, James Cook and Ty Johnson combined for 101 yards on 25 touches.
Baltimore’s offense provides multiple looks and can beat defenses in a variety of ways with different methods of running the football. It is one of the biggest advantages the Ravens have over Kansas City’s defense in this matchup, an instance of a great strength versus a significant weakness.
- Lamar Jackson stats on play-action: 122.9 QB rating (2nd), 81.7% Adjusted Completion Rate (4th), 91.7 PFF grade (4th), 10-2 TD-INT, 9.9 ypa
The Ravens can use the ground game early to attack Kansas City’s biggest vulnerability. Not only will it be effective, but it eats up the clock and that means a fresher defense with Mahomes spending less time on the field. It will then help make the play action even more effective and if the Ravens have a big lead late, they can close the game out with Edwards and Jackson.
