The stage is set for the national championship game, a matchup between the two best teams in college football. Before the Washington Huskies and Michigan Wolverines take the field, we have to make 2024 CFP national championship predictions for the big game.
It’s fitting that the final game of the season is a matchup between the two best teams in the country. Washington and Michigan largely stayed healthy this season, allowing them to finish undefeated and win conference titles. After knocking out Alabama and Texas in the CFP Semifinal, the only thing left is the national championship game.
2024 CFP National Championship game info
- TV: ESPN
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Location: NRG Stadium – Houston, Texas
- Line: -4.5, Michigan Wolverines
- Point Total: 56.5 points
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Let’s dive into our CFP National Championship predictions, including the winner and best performers.
CFP National Championship predictions: Washinton vs Michigan
Washington Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr hits 300+ pass yards, 3 TDs
The Michigan Wolverines have the best defense in college football and it’s the biggest reason they beat Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Michigan overwhelmed the Crimson Tide’s offensive line in that matchup, recording 8 QB hurries, 4 sacks and a 34.3 percent pressure rate, per Pro Football Focus.
If the Wolverines could recreate that pass-rushing success against Washington, they win. The problem for Michigan isn’t just that Washington’s offensive line is one of the best in the nation, it’s how well quarterback Michael Penix Jr. navigates pressure.
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- Washington Huskies offensive line:Â 2.22% sack rate (2nd lowest in FBS), 0.8 sacks per game allowed (4th lowest in FBS), 83.5 PFF pass-blocking grade (5th)
Washington’s offensive line was outstanding against Texas, holding the Longhorns’ pass rush to 10 hurries on 40 dropbacks without a single sack or QB hit allowed. When Penix Jr. was pressed by Texas, he completed 60 percent of his passes with 151 passing yards and a 90.3 PFF grade.
| PFF Grade | YPA | TD-INT | Adj. Completion Rate | NFL QB Rating | |
| Michael Penix Jr. in clean pocket | 93.1 (4th) | 9.5 (17th) | 30-6 | 79.1% (36th) | 122.6 (12th) |
| Michael Penix Jr. vs blitz | 79.7 (27th) | 9.1 (21st) | 13-4 | 71.6% (41st) | 105.2 (43rd) |
| Michael Penix Jr vs pressure | 70.3 (10th in FBS) | 8.3 (13th) | 5-3 | 62.8% (45th) | 77.7 (34th) |
If Michigan’s defensive front can’t get home to Penix without blitzing, it exposes itself to the Huskies’ quarterback making even bigger plays. One other thing the Wolverines must keep in mind, that time to throw means a quarterback with a 9-2 TD-INT line, 45.3 percent completion rate and 88.5 PFF grade on throws 20-plus yards downfield can attack Michigan deep. Washington’s offense is vastly superior to what Michigan encountered against Alabama and we believe the Wolverines will struggle versus Penix and wide receivers Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk.
Michigan Wolverines star Blake Corum scores twice, eclipses 150 scrimmage yards
For as effective as we believe Penix Jr. will be through the air for Washington, Michigan running back Blake Corum should match some of that playmaking on Monday night. While Corum wasn’t incredibly efficient with his carries in the Rose Bowl (4.4 yards per carry) he scored 2 touchdowns and nearly hit 120 scrimmage yards against one of the SEC’s best run defenses in 2023.
Washington’s run defense isn’t remotely as strong. Against Texas, which started backup running backs, the Longhorns’ primary ball-carriers CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue each scored rushing touchdowns and averaged a combined 6.8 yards per carry. Even Quinn Ewers (54 rushing yards) as effective with his legs, helping Texas rush for 180 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 28 attempts. On top of that, Blue and Baxter tacked on 84 receiving yards.
Michigan has a better run-blocking offensive line than Texas did and Corum is a better running back than any of the Longhorns’ healthy backs. The Wolverines will want to keep Penix Jr. off the field as much as possible, with Corum both providing that and the ability to exploit Washington’s weakness.
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Michigan, Washington blow past the point total
As previously stated, the Wolverines have had the best defense in college football all season. Michigan held Alabama, Ohio State and Penn State to a combined 59 points. With that acknowledged, Washington’s offense is closer to the 2019 LSU Tigers offense than anything Michigan has faced before.
On the other side of the ball, Michigan’s offense has everything it needs to exploit vulnerabilities on the Wolverines’ offense. Corum and Donovan Edwards are well-positioned to combine for one of the best games of the season. Once the run game is going, it sets up the play action and J.J. McCarthy posted a 76 percent completion rate with a 6-1 TD-INT line and averaged 10.9 yards per attempt on play-action passes during the regular season
Washington Huskies win the CFP National Championship Game
This is the most excited we’ve been for a national championship game in years. Georiga vs TCU was ripe for a blowout, but this matchup is the best thing we could ask for. Washington has strengths that can attack Michigan’s weaknesses, while the Wolverines’ strengths are ripe to exploit the Huskies’ deficiencies.
We do give the coaching advantage to Michigan in this one and there’s no doubt Wolverines fans will pack NRG Stadium, giving Michigan another advantage. However, we often bet on both quarterback play and the ability to win in the trenches to project a winner.
Ultimately, we see this being a one-score game into the fourth quarter with each team trading touchdowns. In the closing minutes, Penix Jr. leads a go-ahead drive to set up a successful field goal from 40-plus yards out. While McCarthy and Corum get one last drive to win it, the Wolverines fall short and Washington wins.
- Prediction: Washington Huskies 34, Michigan Wolverines 31
