While Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is living his best life off the field with Taylor Swift, things are not going well for the future Hall of Famer and the Chiefs’ offense on the field. Kansas City’s biggest issue might be its receiving corps, but one NFL general manager also believes Father Time is hurting the team.
Kelce, age 34, has played in 174 career NFL games and the years of taking hits have taken a toll on his 6-foot-5 frame. The All-Pro tight end admitted earlier this year that he thinks about retirement “more than anyone could ever imagine” thanks to countless surgeries and pain that he’s experienced in the NFL.
- Travis Kelce stats 2023: 80 receptions, 896 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns on 80 targets
“That’s the only thing I’ve never really been open about, the discomfort. The pain. The lingering injuries — the 10 surgeries I’ve had that I still feel every single surgery to this day.”
Travis Kelce to the Wall Street Journal on retiring, his physical health
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Kelce is currently on pace for his lowest touchdown total (seven) since 2019 and he’s on track to finish under 1,200 receiving yards for the first time since 2017. As many around the NFL continue evaluating the Chiefs’ offense to find its problems, some believe Kelce’s decline due to age is a key part of it.
Mike Sando of The Athletic spoke to NFL executives and coaches about the Chiefs’ struggling offense. When it came to Kelce, one general manager expressed his belief based on the film that the All-Pro tight end is regressing.
“I was watching him run down on that Hail Mary (against Green Bay), and I was thinking he might be almost done. I say that understanding he has been productive at times this year. But you know what the first sign of decline for a player like Travis Kelce is? That he is not the same player late in the season. It means his body is not recovering.”
Anonymous NFL general manager on Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce
- Travis Kelce career stats: 894 receptions, 11,240 receiving yards, 74 receiving touchdowns, 12.6 yards per reception, 595 first downs, 72.5 receiving yards per game
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Injuries can certainly play a part. Kelce suffered a hyperextended knee during the preseason and then played through a low-ankle sprain this year. As the general manager noted, though, it’s also the fact that Kelce isn’t returning to his peak form after suffering these injuries that stands out.
When we take a look at some of the Next Gen Stats metrics, there are some signs of decline in Kelce’s game this season. While he isn’t Kansas City’s problem, regression in athleticism has hurt the Chiefs’ offense.
| Contested Catch Rate | YAC per Target | Juke Rate | Yards per Route Run | ||
| 2022 | 45.8% (12th) | 4.0 | 14.3% | 2.44 | |
| 2023 | 25% (33rd) | 3.8 | 6.8% | 2.38 |
It’s hard to argue with the numbers. Kelce is also averaging a career-low 11.2 yards per reception, the first time his average has dipped below 12. It’s not for a lack of Mahomes taking shots to Kelce downfield. Coming out of Week 14, Kelce’s average depth of target (7.3) was higher than it was in 2022 and he’s on pace to match last season’s mark (20) for targets 20-plus yards downfield.