With just three weeks left in the NBA regular season, we’re definitely getting down to crunch time. And unlike last season, there’s still a whole heck of a lot to be decided.
Throughout the course of the season, it sure looked like the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors would meet for the third consecutive time in the NBA Finals.
Then in an instant, things changed. Kevin Durant went down with an MCL injury for the Warriors, at which point the two-time defending Western Conference champions struggled big time. Back east, the Cavaliers’ struggles have been more about depth than injuries.
Now heading into the final few weeks of the season, it is not a foregone conclusion that either of these teams will gain home-court advantage in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, a pretty darn interesting MVP race is brewing between James Harden and Russell Westbrook. How will their two teams close the regular season and what impact will that have on the MVP race?
These are among the top-eight stories as the NBA enters the stretch run of the 2016-17 regular season.
1. Wide-open MVP race
It was pretty clear the past two seasons that Stephen Curry would win MVP. Prior to that, it was all about LeBron James. This year is completely different. With Curry struggling to an extent in Oakland and James taking a back seat to other contenders, there will likely be a new MVP this season.
Depending on who you ask, the choice is between James Harden of the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook. An argument could conceivably be made for both.
Harden has led a much improved Rockets team that heads into Tuesday’s action with a 49-22 record and boasting the No. 3 seed out west. He’s been downright dominating throughout the season, averaging 29.2 points, 8.1 rebounds and a league-best 11.2 assists per game.
He’s also remained consistent at 45 percent from the field, including a 35 percent mark from distance. Those jive well with what we have seen in recent seasons. The primary difference here is that Harden is being asked to run the offense under first-year head coach Mike D’Antoni. And while he is averaging nearly six turnovers per game, the All-Star has done a mighty fine job.
On the other hand, what Russ has done for the Kevin Durant-less Thunder is absolutely stunning. Here’s a team that has had to rebuild its supporting cast on a whim. That included acquiring Victor Oladipo from Orlando during the summer while picking up Taj Gibson in a deadline deal back in February. Despite this, Oklahoma City heads into the stretch run within an ear shot of a top-four seed out west.
Statistically speaking, Russ is having the best season since Oscar Robertson was dominating for the then Cincinnati Royals back in 1961-62. He’s averaging a league best 31.7 points to go with 10.5 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game. If these numbers hold, Westbrook would be the first player since the aforementioned Big O to average a triple-double during the course of a season.
While these are the two leading candidates, we would be foolish not to mention Isaiah Thomas of the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard as options too.
Thomas is averaging 29.2 points per game, including double-digit points in the fourth quarter for a Celtics squad that is contending for the top spot back east.
Meanwhile, Leonard continues to prove himself to be the best two-way player in the Association. He’s averaging a career-best 26.1 points and is shooting at a splendid 48 percent from the field. He also ranks in the top three of the NBA in defensive efficiency.
How the stretch run plays out here will have a huge impact on who is hoisting the MVP trophy come playoff time. Our money at this point has to be on Russ simply because he has the Thunder as a potential top-four seed a season after losing Durant to the Warriors.
2. What to make of the Jazz?
At 43-28, Utah seemingly has a good chance of earning a top-four seed out West. At this point, that would equate to a first-round matchup with Los Angeles. If the Jazz were to then advance, it’s almost a foregone conclusion they would take on either Golden State or San Antonio in the Western Conference Semifinals. Yes, Quin Snyder’s team is being mentioned among the top performers out west. But how real is this success?
We have to start with the MVP-caliber performance of Gordon Hayward out on the wing. He’s putting up career marks in points per game (21.8), rebounds per game (5.5) and field goal percentage (.462). More than that, Hayward has helped lead the league’s top-scoring defense.
While he lacks a true secondary scorer, Utah’s supporting cast has worked well within the flow of things for Hayward. Rudy Gobert’s offensive game has not necessarily improved, but he’s averaging nearly 13 rebounds and an absurd 2.5 blocks per game. Gobert’s presence in the interior is one of the primary reasons Utah boasts the best defense in the NBA.
The biggest key for Utah heading into the playoffs will be how its supporting cast performs from a scoring standpoint. George Hill is averaging 17.2 points per game. But can he remain healthy? Here’s a guy that’s missed 27 games on the season. Utah also has to worry about whether Rodney Hood can remain healthy. He’s missed 22 games and is dealing with a knee issue.
If both Hill and Hood can prove to be healthy, Utah will surely be a tough out in the playoffs. Its size will be an issue for Golden State should the two teams meet. Meanwhile, the Jazz provide enough length to go up against the likes of the Spurs and Rockets. It’s all about matchups here, and Utah has a lot working in its favor right now.
3. West’s bottom spot suddenly more interesting
The Western Conference remains completely undecided as the NBA enters its stretch run. Four teams are battling for the four-through-seven spots. In one way or another each one will earn a playoff spot somewhere in between that seeding. Where exactly likely won’t be known until the final week of the regular season.
However, it’s the battle for the eighth spot that seems most intriguing. Boasting a 2.5-game lead over San Antonio, it seems to be a foregone conclusion Golden State will be the top seed. Who the two-time defending Western Conference champs play in the initial round remains completely up in the air.
Denver currently holds the eighth spot with a 33-37 mark. It sits just a half game up on Portland and 2.5 games ahead of the Mavericks. After that, New Orleans is just four games behind the Nuggets for that final playoff spot.
The primary focus here has to be on what team might give either Golden State or San Antonio a tough time in the first round. Common logic seems to suggest that might be Portland with the star-studded back-court combo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. After all, we did see the Blazers put up a pretty tough fight against Golden State in the conference semifinals last spring.
Though, the up-and-coming Nuggets should not be taken for granted. They handed Golden State a 22-point loss back in February and have the length to give Steve Kerr’s squad a major push in the initial round. Depending on the health of Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, they could be a tough out in the first round.
Add in the emergence of Jamal Murray in the backcourt as well as the tremendous play of both Nikola Jokic and Mason Plumlee inside, and Denver could cause some major issues come the postseason.
Despite the lackluster records of those battling for the eighth spot, it seems that the upper echelon of the Western Conference is a bit more vulnerable than we have seen in the past. It will be interesting to see who earns the right to play either Golden State or San Antonio in the initial round.
4. The Wiz kids
Since starting the season losing 13 of their first 20 games, the Washington Wizards boast a conference-best 35-15 mark. That’s downright scary for any squad set to face John Wall and Co. once the playoffs come calling. In reality, everything is hitting at the right time for Washington.
Wall has to be considered one of the top-seven MVP candidates at this point. The All-Star is averaging 23.0 points and 10.8 assists per outing. It’s been his most well-rounded season to date. Though, Wall himself playing at a high level isn’t necessarily newsworthy. It’s how his supporting cast has performed that has Washington thinking NBA Finals.
Enough cannot be said about Bradley Beal this season. He’s actually averaging a team-best 23.1 points per game. In addition to this, Beal is shooting at a 48 percent clip from the field, including a tremendous 41 percent mark from distance. Recently signed to a long-term deal by Washington, Beal has also found a way to remain relatively healthy on the season. He’s missed a grand total of four games after being forced out of action for a combined 46 games the previous two seasons.
With Otto Porter playing at an elite level from the perimeter and the likes of Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat, Kelly Oubre and Bojan Bogdanovic chipping in for depth, the Wizards have proven themselves to be a true contender. That’s a marked difference from the way they started the season. It will also be interesting to see how they end the year.
5. Tanking for picks?
The Los Angeles Lakers shutting down both Timofey Mozgov and Luol Deng is one thing. Neither player proved to be worth a hill of beans after the team’s former brass handed them huge contracts this past summer. It just goes to show you how blindly Jim Buss and Co. were when going at it last offseason. It’s a mess that Magic Johnson will now be tasked with fixing.
Instead, let’s look at the Phoenix Suns and a recent decision they made. The team shut down leading scorer Eric Bledsoe within the past week. It’s not that the injury-plagued Bledsoe had seen that bug hit him again. He’s been healthy all season long. In fact, Bledsoe was in the midst of a career performance before being shut down.
Officially, the Suns will say they’re sitting Bledsoe for the remainder of the season to give youngster Tyler Ulis an opportunity to see more minutes. Unofficially, general manger Ryan McDonough and head coach Earl Watson made this decision in order to help the Suns acquire a better draft pick.
You read that right. Phoenix is sitting its best player for the remainder of the season for an opportunity at better odds during the draft lottery. How fun that must be for fans who have paid a pretty penny to attend games in the desert.
Tanking for picks used to include selling off high-end players at the trade deadline. Maybe those who were a bit banged up were given additional games off. It’s a recent phenomenon to see teams legitimately shut down their best players for the stretch run.
Is this the competitiveness that commissioner Adam Silver and Co. would like to see as a drawn-out regular season comes to a close? We’re not entirely too sure of that.
Los Angeles may have started this process with Mozgov and Deng, but neither player figured to play huge roles in the first place. If other teams start following the Suns’ lead here, that will become a major issue for the NBA moving forward.
6. The struggling Cavaliers
Let’s ignore for a fact that Cleveland sat its three-best players Saturday night against the Los Angeles Clippers. We saw the Golden State Warriors do this earlier in the month in what seemed to be a pretty huge game against San Antonio. That’s a conversation for another time.
The focus here should be on just how mediocre Cleveland has been recently. The defending champs boast a 6-7 record over the past month. Going back a bit further, the Cavaliers are just 18-13 after starting the season with 28 wins in their first 38 games. That’s a large sample size of pedestrian basketball.
It’s not that LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are struggling. All three remain at the top of their games with Love actually performing at his highest clip since joining the team. The All-Star is averaging 19.8 points and 11.1 rebounds while shooting at a tremendous 38 percent clip from distance. Meanwhile, Irving is at a career-high 25.5 points per game and LeBron is averaging a near triple-double.
As we have seen all season (ask LeBron), the issue here is depth. Simply put, the rest of Cleveland’s roster has failed to amount to a hill of beans. After the big three (and Kyle Korver) not a single member of the team is averaging double-digit points. Cleveland is also relying on a one-dimensional Derrick Williams to play nearly 22 minutes per game. That’s just not sustainable moving forward.
Think about it this way, Cleveland’s trio of All-Stars combined for 101 points Sunday against the cellar-dwelling Los Angeles Lakers. Despite this, the Cavaliers had to overcome a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to come away with a narrow five-point win. Ouch.
Just a game ahead of Boston in the win column back east, Cleveland needs to get back on track. If that doesn’t happen, there’s a good chance the Celtics will gain home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs. Boasting an 18-16 road record on the season, that would be a less-than-ideal situation for Cleveland.
7. Star players could be on the move
How the remainder of the regular season and the playoffs end up playing out will have a huge impact on what happens during free agency this summer. By all accounts, the core players on teams such as the Los Angeles Clippers, Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls are playing to remain intact.
What happens with these teams could play a huge role on the outcome of both free agency and the trade market once the offseason comes calling.
We start with the Los Angeles Clippers. Chris Paul has an early-termination clause on his contract, one he’s widely expected to use. And while reports have surfaced that he will return to Southern California, another early-round playoff exit may put that into question.
The same could potentially be said for Blake Griffin, who is a free agent following the 2017-18 season. Should Paul move on, maybe the Clippers look to blow this whole thing up.
Currently sitting at 42-29, Los Angeles is the fourth seed out west. Though, it is only 1.5 games up on the seventh-seeded Memphis Grizzlies. We don’t need to be geniuses to realize that the Clippers want home court in the first round. Heck, a matchup against San Antonio to open the playoffs would be a complete and utter disaster.
Back east, Chicago finds itself one game out of the final playoff spot. Short of this under-achieving team earning a postseason appearance and making a mini run, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the likes of Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler and Rajon Rondo be broken up. With Wade out for the remainder of the year, Chicago finds itself behind the proverbial eight-ball.
Leading up to February’s trade deadline, there was also talk that Indiana might be listening to offers on Paul George. That never came to fruition, but Larry Bird and Co. must find out whether this team as currently constructed can contend. Is Myles Turner a solid No. 2 option? What other internal options do the Pacers have to make a run back east? At 36-34 on the season, Indiana is a fledgling playoff contender. A first-round exit as a bottom-two seed could spell doom to core players this team currently boasts.
8. Kevin Durant’s return
As of right now, it looks like Golden State will be the top seed when the playoffs come calling. In reality, that will matter little should this former MVP not prove himself to be fully healthy when it comes down to crunch time.
Golden State struggled mightily immediately following Durant suffering a sprained MCL last month. In its first six games without the former MVP, Steve Kerr’s squad posted a 2-4 record, including the team’s first three-game losing streak since November of 2013.
While the Warriors have rebounded to win their past four by an average of 15-plus points, it’s not a stretch to say they need Durant to be 100 percent healthy and ready to go once the playoffs start.
The good news here is that Durant seems to be making progress in his rehab and should be back before the end of the regular season. At that point, it will be all about him getting his sea legs under him and finding a rhythm with the rest of the Warriors’ starting five.
Prior to that, the likes of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson must continue playing elite-level basketball. After all, Golden State has games coming up against Houston (twice) and San Antonio before the end of March.
Maintaining the No. 1 seed before Durant’s return would enable the Warriors to ease him back into the lineup. If not, that top spot and home-court advantage could very well be in jeopardy.