BALTIMORE – Arguably the most important ingredient in the Baltimore Orioles’ run into the playoffs – maybe the most crucial individual player in the entire American League postseason picture – is still in limbo.
The Orioles are viewing that as a good thing, given the circumstances. Because there really is no other positive way to view All-Star closer Félix Bautista’s elbow injury at this point of the year.
Limbo isn’t surgery, and that’s a win in mid-September.
Orioles general manager Mike Elias told the Baltimore media Monday that no decision has been made regarding damage to the UCL ligament in Bautista’s throwing elbow. The massive right-hander hasn’t pitched since walking off the mound mid-batter on Aug. 25.
That pain initially was described by Elias as “some degree of injury” to Bautista’s UCL. Since then, there have been no specifics released concerning Bautista’s situation, but he has dealt with inflammation and has thrown from flat ground – playing catch multiple times.
Elias said Monday that Bautista’s elbow injury is “acute on chronic,” meaning a new injury addition to a ligament that already has experienced wear. Not a surprise. When you throw 100 mph for a living, it’s safe to assume your elbow ligaments have clocked some miles.
Felix Bautista’s recovery options
In layman’s terms, Bautista is dealing with a partial tear of the UCL. It’s something pitchers have played through. It’s also something pitchers have had repaired via Tommy John surgery, which would keep Bautista out for the remainder of this season and most – if not all – of 2024.
Those are the options. Try to pitch through it and get back for the playoffs. Or have surgery.
Ultimately, that choice will be Bautista’s. Currently, though, there is no rush in making the call. If rest and strengthening can help get one of the best closers in baseball return for a couple weeks, well, the Orioles are willing to take their time.
“We solicited a lot of opinions and formulated a plan,” Elias said. “And, at this point, the calendar kind of affords us an opportunity to take a conservative approach and allow him to throw right now and kind of see where that goes and how that takes us. That’s going to be sort of a day-by-day situation.”
Elias said he doesn’t have a deadline on when Bautista must be ready to return to the club. Obviously, it would be helpful if he pitched in a game or two before season’s end on Oct. 1. That way he can face top competition before the postseason and the Orioles can gauge his readiness.
Here’s the reality: This is a longshot. The Orioles, their fans and Bautista know that. More than likely Bautista will be shut down for the season, and more than likely he will have elbow surgery in the offseason. That’s how these things usually work.
The good news here is that Bautista is a short-stint reliever. He won’t need to throw five innings at a time and mix his pitches and build up his stamina. If he can hit close to 100 mph with his fastball despite the bum elbow, it’s probably worth getting him out there again this month.
You don’t know when a team’s next chance at the playoffs will come, and Bautista is an absolute difference-maker. He has 33 saves and has struck out 110 batters in 61 innings – a ridiculous 16.2 strikeouts per 9 – while walking 26 and allowing 30 hits. Yennier Cano has done a nice job filling in as closer and several relievers have been able to share set-up duties while Cano handles the ninth. But the Orioles bullpen, a strength again this season, won’t be nearly as formidable with Bautista out of the equation.
“The fact that we’re keeping it rolling right now speaks to the fact that this is not over for 2023,” Elias said. “It’s just going to depend on how he feels as we keep this going.”
What surgery could mean for Felix Bautista
Elias said multiple times during his 20-minute media session that the Orioles have Bautista’s long-term career in mind here. They should. Although Bautista is 28, the late bloomer can’t be a free agent until after the 2027 season.
Surgery for a full tear or a partial tear is still going to require a typical recovery of about a year. The exact timeline all depends on the pitcher. For some it takes slightly less than a year. For some 16 months or more. Orioles lefty John Means makes his 2023 debut Tuesday after having Tommy John surgery in April 2022. There’s no harder worker than Means. He was hoping to be back within a year, but he needed to slow his rehab due to an upper back strain this May.
So, having Bautista get surgery now in preparation for the potential of next postseason seems foolish. If he’ll be considering surgery anyway this offseason – or into the future when the tear deepens – then why not let “The Mountain,” try and pitch this month?
There’s only one good answer to that: The fear that Bautista may inadvertently tweak his mechanics to avoid elbow trouble and create injuries elsewhere – including his right shoulder. That would be disastrous, and potentially career-ending.
At 6-foot-8 and 285 pounds, that’s a whole lot of body to keep healthy on the mound.
That’s why this isn’t an easy call. That’s why Elias is choosing to play this slow.
With Bautista, the Orioles should be the favorite in the AL, because they’ve been the most consistent team all year. Without Bautista, the bullpen weakens as every member must move up a step. They have that ability but not the season-long practice.
Ultimately, it would be surprising if Bautista pitches for the Orioles again in 2023. Same as it was in late August when he first got hurt.
For now, though, there is no reason for Elias to pull the plug on his brightest bullpen light in mid-September. Even if the hope has dulled to a flicker.
Dan Connolly is an MLB Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.